Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

220 
WWUS55 KFGZ 290045
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
545 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

AZC007-290054-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160629T0045Z/
GILA AZ-
545 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 545 PM MST...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER NICKLE
SIZED HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3397 11141 3401 11143 3401 11149 3403 11150
      3405 11147 3406 11147 3407 11146 3410 11149
      3411 11147 3413 11148 3417 11132 3400 11125
      3395 11138
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 070DEG 12KT 3407 11138 

$$

RR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
425 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon activity will be on the increase over the next
few days as a moist southerly flow develops across Arizona. Look
for showers and thunderstorms each day with the best potential for
heavy rain arriving on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...So far today, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms have occurred across much of northern Arizona. In
terms of severe weather, heavy rain over the city of Flagstaff
late morning caused some urban flooding there. Current radar
indicates the focus for convection has shifted to southern Yavapai
and northern Gila Counties this afternoon. In addition, outflows
generated from convection in far northeast Arizona today may kick
off some storms in the Little Colorado River Valley over the next
couple of hours.

For Wednesday through Friday...The high center gradually shifts
to a position over Texas with a southerly flow developing across
Arizona. Model forecasts continue to indicate that this moist
southerly wind flow will draw deeper moisture into the region
from over Northwest Mexico and the Gulf of California. At this
point, it looks like Thursday and Friday show the best potential
for storms producing very heavy rainfall.

From Saturday onward...The flow becomes more westerly with origins
from over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Under this regime look for a
bit of drying and stabilization with a downturn in thunderstorm
activity anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Sct-numrs shra/tsra and isold
+tsra will persist through 01z-03z, roughly west and north of a line
from KRQE to KGCN to KPRC. Isold or single cell activity elsewhere.
The strongest storms will produce mvfr conditions with heavy rain,
small hail and wind gusts to 45kts. Similar conditions expected aft
17z-19z Wednesday, activity will likely stretch farther east to the
White Mtns when compared to today. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon pattern is now in place across the
district. This means daily shower and thunderstorm activity. Storm
motion become nearly stationary and terrain driven by Wednesday and
Thursday. Expect erratic and gusty winds near showers and storms.

Friday through Sunday...Expect active monsoon weather with scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. Activity may decrease somewhat
by Sunday as drier westerly flow develops, but this remains to be
seen. Temperatures will be right around seasonal averages.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1143 AM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FLAGSTAFF               35.19N 111.62W
06/28/2016  E2.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RADAR ESTIMATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...FLAGSTAFF
            SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED WATER UP TO CAR DOORS NEAR AND
            SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN FLAGSTAFF

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1600190

TRC