Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

013 
WGUS75 KFGZ 290041
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
541 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

AZC007-290315-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160629T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-
541 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN GILA COUNTY...

AT 537 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CEDAR WILDFIRE BURN SCAR IS DECREASING. UP
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY OR OCCURRING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE CEDAR WILDFIRE BURN SCAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CEDAR FIRE SCAR WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FIRE AREA. RESIDENCES IN THE COMMUNITY OF CEDAR CREEK MAY BE AFFECTED
BY HIGH WATER AND DEBRIS. SOME ROADWAYS WILL BE INUNDATED OR WASHED
OUT. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. AREAS IMPACTED BY THIS
WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED...THE CEDAR CREEK COMMUNITY.
&&

LAT...LON 3397 11014 3396 11013 3390 11017 3392 11019
      3398 11020

$$

TC

468 
WGUS75 KFGZ 290131
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
631 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

AZC007-290315-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160629T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-
631 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN GILA COUNTY...

AT 624 PM MST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN
CEDAR CREEK WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT PUSH OF WATER AND DEBRIS MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE CEDAR CREEK DRAINAGE, STILL ABOVE THE TOWN OF CEDAR
CREEK. RADAR ESTIMATES UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE CEDAR WILDFIRE BURN SCAR. FLASH FLOODING
ALONG CEDAR CREEK IS OCCURRING.

NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS
STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CEDAR FIRE SCAR WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FIRE AREA. RESIDENCES IN THE COMMUNITY OF CEDAR CREEK MAY BE AFFECTED
BY HIGH WATER AND DEBRIS. SOME ROADWAYS WILL BE INUNDATED OR WASHED
OUT. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. AREAS IMPACTED BY THIS
WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE CEDAR CREEK
COMMUNITY.
&&

LAT...LON 3397 11014 3396 11013 3390 11017 3392 11019
      3398 11020

$$

TC

098 
WGUS75 KFGZ 290149
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
649 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

AZC007-290157-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160629T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-
649 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GILA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND WATERS ARE
RECEDING. SIGNIFICANT FLOOD IMPACTS WERE NOT OBSERVED DURING THIS
EVENT. 

LAT...LON 3397 11014 3396 11013 3390 11017 3392 11019
      3398 11020

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
425 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon activity will be on the increase over the next
few days as a moist southerly flow develops across Arizona. Look
for showers and thunderstorms each day with the best potential for
heavy rain arriving on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...So far today, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms have occurred across much of northern Arizona. In
terms of severe weather, heavy rain over the city of Flagstaff
late morning caused some urban flooding there. Current radar
indicates the focus for convection has shifted to southern Yavapai
and northern Gila Counties this afternoon. In addition, outflows
generated from convection in far northeast Arizona today may kick
off some storms in the Little Colorado River Valley over the next
couple of hours.

For Wednesday through Friday...The high center gradually shifts
to a position over Texas with a southerly flow developing across
Arizona. Model forecasts continue to indicate that this moist
southerly wind flow will draw deeper moisture into the region
from over Northwest Mexico and the Gulf of California. At this
point, it looks like Thursday and Friday show the best potential
for storms producing very heavy rainfall.

From Saturday onward...The flow becomes more westerly with origins
from over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Under this regime look for a
bit of drying and stabilization with a downturn in thunderstorm
activity anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Sct-numrs shra/tsra and isold
+tsra will persist through 01z-03z, roughly west and north of a line
from KRQE to KGCN to KPRC. Isold or single cell activity elsewhere.
The strongest storms will produce mvfr conditions with heavy rain,
small hail and wind gusts to 45kts. Similar conditions expected aft
17z-19z Wednesday, activity will likely stretch farther east to the
White Mtns when compared to today. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon pattern is now in place across the
district. This means daily shower and thunderstorm activity. Storm
motion become nearly stationary and terrain driven by Wednesday and
Thursday. Expect erratic and gusty winds near showers and storms.

Friday through Sunday...Expect active monsoon weather with scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. Activity may decrease somewhat
by Sunday as drier westerly flow develops, but this remains to be
seen. Temperatures will be right around seasonal averages.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1143 AM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FLAGSTAFF               35.19N 111.62W
06/28/2016  E2.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RADAR ESTIMATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...FLAGSTAFF
            SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED WATER UP TO CAR DOORS NEAR AND
            SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN FLAGSTAFF

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1600190

TRC