Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
through this afternoon across central and north Georgia. Another
very warm and muggy day exists with temps in the upr 80s to lwr
90s and heat indices in the 90s to around 100F in a number of
locations.

Elongated upper ridge has stretched itself from the Ozarks region in
Arkansas to the southeast Atlantic coast. Long-duration/strong to
severe storms will be limited through this evening due to this upr
ridge and the fact that the flow aloft is very weak.

More of the same is expected tomorrow /Monday/ as plenty of morning
sun should heat the surface quickly. Upr ridge shifts slightly west
allowing a more northerly upr lvl flow to develop across the region.
Hard to pick out smaller "disturbances" in the upr lvl flow at this
time but they will likely exist and contribute to scattered
thunderstorms across the area by early afternoon. Low to mid lvl
flow will continue to be very weak so convection will tend to be
supported and re-fire along outflow boundaries. Outside of storms,
another warm day is in store with max temps reaching the lower to
mid 90s.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Pattern in long term period dominated by large upper high
centered over Southern Plains and Mid-South. Upper troughing
deepens a little along Eastern CONUS into the Southeast starting
early Thursday but upper ridging appears to build back into the
state late Friday. Good agreement between medium range models with
large scale pattern. Disagreement as usual this time of year is
with finer details of deep moisture and associated convection. As
NW flow sets up Wed- Thurs...could see some drying in north GA
which models indicate...but typically do not see this this time of
year unless dry/cool advection in low and mid-levels is strong...
which it is not. Have adjusted model blend PoPs up a little in
north Georgia. Rest of blended forecast looks quite good with
temps slightly above normal.

SNELSON/16

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are increasing in coverage
across central/north Georgia. There is no significant
forcing/focus to sustain the convection and the flow aloft is very
weak...so a very 'hit or miss' approach to convection this
afternoon. Feel more confident than not to keep 'TEMPO' group out
of ATL at this time but cannot rule out a pop-up shower right over
the airfield at some point this afternoon. Storms may also have a
hard time developing due to upr ridge in place across the region
and drier mid lvl air in place.  Hi-res models are trying to
develop convection south of I-20 later today (bwtn 23-03z) but
having a hard time seeing this happening so have left it dry at
KMCN and KCSG attm. Activity should fall apart after 02z with most
areas convection-free by 05z. Low clouds/fog should not impact the
airports overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence with convection/weather.
High confidence with all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  73  96 /  20  40  10  40
Atlanta         74  93  75  94 /  20  30  20  30
Blairsville     66  87  67  89 /  30  40  10  50
Cartersville    72  92  72  95 /  20  40  20  40
Columbus        74  95  75  95 /  20  30  20  30
Gainesville     73  91  74  94 /  20  40  10  40
Macon           73  95  74  96 /  20  40  10  30
Rome            71  95  72  95 /  20  30  20  40
Peachtree City  71  93  72  95 /  20  30  20  30
Vidalia         73  95  74  94 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...DJN.83

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181215-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO CENTRAL GEORGIA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ083-084-096-097-109-180030-
TWIGGS GA-DODGE GA-BLECKLEY GA-WILKINSON GA-LAURENS GA-
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TWIGGS...
NORTHWESTERN DODGE...EASTERN BLECKLEY...SOUTHWESTERN WILKINSON AND
WESTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 737 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
DANVILLE TO NEAR CHESTER TO NEAR EASTMAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

  HAZARD...30 TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
EASTMAN...JEFFERSONVILLE...CHESTER...DEXTER...DUDLEY...CADWELL...
DANVILLE...MONTROSE...ALLENTOWN...DUBOIS...DISTRICT PATH...REBIE...
CARY...ROWLAND...RODDY...YONKERS...CHAPPELLS MILL...GODWINSVILLE...
EMPIRE AND NICKLESVILLE.

LAT...LON 3227 8334 3247 8332 3261 8339 3279 8332
      3276 8311 3261 8301 3223 8302 3210 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 335DEG 8KT 3263 8326 3245 8319 3226 8319

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