Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Latest surface analysis continues to show a wedge of high pressure
nosing in from the east... resulting in wedge frontal boundary that
stretches from near Savannah to just east of Columbus and then
northward near the AL/GA state line. Regional radars show scattered
to numerous convection across much of north and west central GA that
developed along the wedge boundary earlier... and has propagated
east and south along their own outflow boundaries. This convection
will bring much needed rain to many areas as hires convective models
show this cluster currently spreading across the Atlanta metro area
continuing to propagate south and southeast through late afternoon
and early to mid evening before dissipating with loss of daytime
heating. This convection should push south of the Atlanta metro by
early evening. The main storm threats will be occasional cloud to
ground lightning and locally heavy rain with 1.9+ pws in place with
very slow storm movement. Wind gusts to 40 mph and occasional pea
sized hail are also possible. Although a strong to severe storm
cannot be ruled out... expect the greater strong/severe threat to be
generally west and south of the forecast area... which is west and
south of the wedge front.

Short range models show the wedge front backing up as a warm front
and dissipating early on Monday while a cold front pushes into the
TN valley by late Monday afternoon. This coupled with an active NW
flow aloft should spread scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms into much of north GA Monday afternoon and Monday
evening. SPC shows a Marginal Risk area in eastern TN on Monday...
and this looks reasonable. However... just cannot rule out a few
strong to severe storms pushing into far north GA late Monday
afternoon during max heating... so stay tuned. Scattered convection
should also push into parts of Central GA late Monday and could
persist into Monday night... but nothing severe is expected there at
this time.

Otherwise... stayed with persistence for lows... while increasing
clouds and rain chances may be a bit too late on Monday to help hold
highs out of the 90s Monday afternoon. Went with a mav and met blend
through the period for temps... and increased pops across the north
above guidance numbers.

39

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Main forecast challenge in the long term period is again chance
for diurnal convection. Medium range models in fair agreement and
still want to push front into north Georgia Wed/Thur...but mainly
only seeing drier air and little change in sfc temps. Again
concerned that fronts even in this pattern this time of year do
not push as far south as models indicate. Trend from 12z runs this
time yesterday is about the same that said.

With the front somewhere in the vicinity of cwa through the long
term period...should see scattered diurnal convection each day
with higher coverage and stronger intensity over middle Georgia.
Vertical wind shear in this region somewhat weak compared to north
Georgia and TN Valley.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
/Issued 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016/...The long term begins with
the upper ridge dominating the southeast...but gradually being
pushed to the south and west as a broad trough deepens into the OH
Valley. This should push a surface front into central GA through
the middle of the week. Looks like best pops should be in the
vicinity of the front Tuesday and have included likely for a
portion of central GA during the afternoon. GFS and ECMWF show
some drying into north GA Wednesday through Thursday...so have
removed pops for a portion of the northwest for that time.
Moisture should increase back across the forecast area through the
weekend as the surface front becomes more diffuse...so chance or
slight chance looks reasonable for the Friday and Saturday.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will spread over all the
Atlanta taf sites this afternoon...warranting a tempo tsra from 18-
22z. Could see wind gusts up to 25-30kts with storm outflows. Expect
the convection to push south of ATL by 22-23z today. May see some
MVFR level cigs with the convection... but otherwise... mid level
VFR cigs should prevail. Current east winds around 8-10kts will
persist... with an east-southeast wind around 6kts or less expected
overnight. Winds will mix down from the south-southwest by 15z
Mon with speeds 8kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing of convection and southwest winds on Monday. High
on all other elements.

/39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  72  87 /  20  50  50  50
Atlanta         73  91  73  88 /  30  50  40  50
Blairsville     67  86  67  84 /  30  60  60  40
Cartersville    71  91  70  86 /  30  60  50  40
Columbus        72  94  75  90 /  40  40  40  60
Gainesville     73  90  72  84 /  30  50  50  50
Macon           72  94  73  92 /  30  30  30  70
Rome            72  91  72  88 /  30  70  50  30
Peachtree City  71  92  72  88 /  40  50  40  50
Vidalia         73  94  74  93 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-270845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
158 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-
75 IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
533 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ081-093-094-262200-
MACON GA-CRAWFORD GA-PEACH GA-
533 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MACON...SOUTHEASTERN
CRAWFORD AND PEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FORT VALLEY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PERRY...FORT
VALLEY...WARNER ROBINS...BYRON...SAINT LOUIS...POWERVILLE...
NAKOMIS...LEE POPE...LAKEWOOD AND MIAMI VALLEY.

LAT...LON 3246 8383 3246 8384 3245 8385 3253 8402
      3253 8400 3254 8401 3257 8405 3274 8397
      3267 8371 3265 8371 3265 8373 3261 8371
      3252 8372 3253 8375 3251 8375 3251 8379
      3245 8380 3244 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 292DEG 16KT 3262 8393

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