Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Latest surface analysis continues to show a wedge of high pressure
nosing in from the east... resulting in wedge frontal boundary that
stretches from near Savannah to just east of Columbus and then
northward near the AL/GA state line. Regional radars show scattered
to numerous convection across much of north and west central GA that
developed along the wedge boundary earlier... and has propagated
east and south along their own outflow boundaries. This convection
will bring much needed rain to many areas as hires convective models
show this cluster currently spreading across the Atlanta metro area
continuing to propagate south and southeast through late afternoon
and early to mid evening before dissipating with loss of daytime
heating. This convection should push south of the Atlanta metro by
early evening. The main storm threats will be occasional cloud to
ground lightning and locally heavy rain with 1.9+ pws in place with
very slow storm movement. Wind gusts to 40 mph and occasional pea
sized hail are also possible. Although a strong to severe storm
cannot be ruled out... expect the greater strong/severe threat to be
generally west and south of the forecast area... which is west and
south of the wedge front.

Short range models show the wedge front backing up as a warm front
and dissipating early on Monday while a cold front pushes into the
TN valley by late Monday afternoon. This coupled with an active NW
flow aloft should spread scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms into much of north GA Monday afternoon and Monday
evening. SPC shows a Marginal Risk area in eastern TN on Monday...
and this looks reasonable. However... just cannot rule out a few
strong to severe storms pushing into far north GA late Monday
afternoon during max heating... so stay tuned. Scattered convection
should also push into parts of Central GA late Monday and could
persist into Monday night... but nothing severe is expected there at
this time.

Otherwise... stayed with persistence for lows... while increasing
clouds and rain chances may be a bit too late on Monday to help hold
highs out of the 90s Monday afternoon. Went with a mav and met blend
through the period for temps... and increased pops across the north
above guidance numbers.

39

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Main forecast challenge in the long term period is again chance
for diurnal convection. Medium range models in fair agreement and
still want to push front into north Georgia Wed/Thur...but mainly
only seeing drier air and little change in sfc temps. Again
concerned that fronts even in this pattern this time of year do
not push as far south as models indicate. Trend from 12z runs this
time yesterday is about the same that said.

With the front somewhere in the vicinity of cwa through the long
term period...should see scattered diurnal convection each day
with higher coverage and stronger intensity over middle Georgia.
Vertical wind shear in this region somewhat weak compared to north
Georgia and TN Valley.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
/Issued 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016/...The long term begins with
the upper ridge dominating the southeast...but gradually being
pushed to the south and west as a broad trough deepens into the OH
Valley. This should push a surface front into central GA through
the middle of the week. Looks like best pops should be in the
vicinity of the front Tuesday and have included likely for a
portion of central GA during the afternoon. GFS and ECMWF show
some drying into north GA Wednesday through Thursday...so have
removed pops for a portion of the northwest for that time.
Moisture should increase back across the forecast area through the
weekend as the surface front becomes more diffuse...so chance or
slight chance looks reasonable for the Friday and Saturday.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will spread over all the
Atlanta taf sites this afternoon...warranting a tempo tsra from 18-
22z. Could see wind gusts up to 25-30kts with storm outflows. Expect
the convection to push south of ATL by 22-23z today. May see some
MVFR level cigs with the convection... but otherwise... mid level
VFR cigs should prevail. Current east winds around 8-10kts will
persist... with an east-southeast wind around 6kts or less expected
overnight. Winds will mix down from the south-southwest by 15z
Mon with speeds 8kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing of convection and southwest winds on Monday. High
on all other elements.

/39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  72  87 /  20  50  50  50
Atlanta         73  91  73  88 /  30  50  40  50
Blairsville     67  86  67  84 /  30  60  60  40
Cartersville    71  91  70  86 /  30  60  50  40
Columbus        72  94  75  90 /  40  40  40  60
Gainesville     73  90  72  84 /  30  50  50  50
Macon           72  94  73  92 /  30  30  30  70
Rome            72  91  72  88 /  30  70  50  30
Peachtree City  71  92  72  88 /  40  50  40  50
Vidalia         73  94  74  93 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-270845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
158 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-
75 IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ053-066-067-261845-
TROUP GA-COWETA GA-MERIWETHER GA-
216 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TROUP...SOUTHERN
COWETA AND NORTHWESTERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 216 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER GRANTVILLE...OR 11
MILES SOUTH OF NEWNAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
HOGANSVILLE...GRANTVILLE...LONE OAK AND CORINTH.

LAT...LON 3322 8495 3323 8494 3327 8485 3320 8478
      3307 8488 3320 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 047DEG 6KT 3321 8486

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
220 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ052-053-261845-
HEARD GA-COWETA GA-
220 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEARD AND SOUTHWESTERN COWETA
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 219 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FRANKLIN...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
FRANKLIN...CORINTH AND TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3327 8523 3338 8504 3325 8490 3322 8492
      3322 8496 3319 8503 3318 8505 3318 8506
      3317 8509 3318 8509 3320 8511 3317 8512
      3315 8515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 047DEG 6KT 3327 8504

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
226 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ044-054-261900-
SOUTH FULTON GA-FAYETTE GA-
226 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FULTON AND NORTHWESTERN
FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 226 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER UNION CITY...OR 11
MILES NORTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ATLANTA...EAST
POINT...UNION CITY...COLLEGE PARK...FAIRBURN...TYRONE... PALMETTO
AND SANDY CREEK.

LAT...LON 3369 8451 3361 8446 3355 8446 3355 8444
      3354 8444 3347 8460 3349 8462 3350 8461
      3351 8462 3351 8463 3359 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 328DEG 6KT 3358 8456

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
235 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ066-067-078-261900-
HARRIS GA-TROUP GA-MERIWETHER GA-
235 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HARRIS...
SOUTHEASTERN TROUP AND SOUTHWESTERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
EDT...

AT 235 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER PINE MOUNTAIN...OR
NEAR HAMILTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
HAMILTON...PINE MOUNTAIN AND F.D. ROOSEVELT STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3292 8493 3292 8480 3275 8475 3274 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 351DEG 10KT 3284 8487

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
257 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ044-054-055-057-261930-
HENRY GA-SOUTH FULTON GA-CLAYTON GA-FAYETTE GA-
257 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HENRY...SOUTH FULTON...
CLAYTON AND NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 257 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
FAYETTEVILLE...JONESBORO...EAST POINT...STOCKBRIDGE...UNION
CITY...FOREST PARK...RIVERDALE...COLLEGE
PARK...FAIRBURN...TYRONE...MORROW...LOVEJOY... LAKE
CITY...HARTSFIELD-JACKSON AIRPORT...IRONDALE...BONANZA...JW SMITH
RESERVOIR...SANDY CREEK...LAKE SPIVEY AND INMAN.

LAT...LON 3358 8462 3367 8445 3352 8422 3333 8449
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 326DEG 10KT 3350 8445

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ080-091-092-261930-
MARION GA-TAYLOR GA-SCHLEY GA-
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION...
SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND NORTHWESTERN SCHLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BUENA
VISTA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BUENA VISTA...MURRAYS CROSSROADS...MAUK...CHARING AND TAZEWELL.

LAT...LON 3232 8458 3256 8447 3257 8441 3256 8434
      3228 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 010DEG 4KT 3245 8440