Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Latest surface analysis continues to show a wedge of high pressure
nosing in from the east... resulting in wedge frontal boundary that
stretches from near Savannah to just east of Columbus and then
northward near the AL/GA state line. Regional radars show scattered
to numerous convection across much of north and west central GA that
developed along the wedge boundary earlier... and has propagated
east and south along their own outflow boundaries. This convection
will bring much needed rain to many areas as hires convective models
show this cluster currently spreading across the Atlanta metro area
continuing to propagate south and southeast through late afternoon
and early to mid evening before dissipating with loss of daytime
heating. This convection should push south of the Atlanta metro by
early evening. The main storm threats will be occasional cloud to
ground lightning and locally heavy rain with 1.9+ pws in place with
very slow storm movement. Wind gusts to 40 mph and occasional pea
sized hail are also possible. Although a strong to severe storm
cannot be ruled out... expect the greater strong/severe threat to be
generally west and south of the forecast area... which is west and
south of the wedge front.

Short range models show the wedge front backing up as a warm front
and dissipating early on Monday while a cold front pushes into the
TN valley by late Monday afternoon. This coupled with an active NW
flow aloft should spread scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms into much of north GA Monday afternoon and Monday
evening. SPC shows a Marginal Risk area in eastern TN on Monday...
and this looks reasonable. However... just cannot rule out a few
strong to severe storms pushing into far north GA late Monday
afternoon during max heating... so stay tuned. Scattered convection
should also push into parts of Central GA late Monday and could
persist into Monday night... but nothing severe is expected there at
this time.

Otherwise... stayed with persistence for lows... while increasing
clouds and rain chances may be a bit too late on Monday to help hold
highs out of the 90s Monday afternoon. Went with a mav and met blend
through the period for temps... and increased pops across the north
above guidance numbers.

39

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Main forecast challenge in the long term period is again chance
for diurnal convection. Medium range models in fair agreement and
still want to push front into north Georgia Wed/Thur...but mainly
only seeing drier air and little change in sfc temps. Again
concerned that fronts even in this pattern this time of year do
not push as far south as models indicate. Trend from 12z runs this
time yesterday is about the same that said.

With the front somewhere in the vicinity of cwa through the long
term period...should see scattered diurnal convection each day
with higher coverage and stronger intensity over middle Georgia.
Vertical wind shear in this region somewhat weak compared to north
Georgia and TN Valley.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
/Issued 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016/...The long term begins with
the upper ridge dominating the southeast...but gradually being
pushed to the south and west as a broad trough deepens into the OH
Valley. This should push a surface front into central GA through
the middle of the week. Looks like best pops should be in the
vicinity of the front Tuesday and have included likely for a
portion of central GA during the afternoon. GFS and ECMWF show
some drying into north GA Wednesday through Thursday...so have
removed pops for a portion of the northwest for that time.
Moisture should increase back across the forecast area through the
weekend as the surface front becomes more diffuse...so chance or
slight chance looks reasonable for the Friday and Saturday.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will spread over all the
Atlanta taf sites this afternoon...warranting a tempo tsra from 18-
22z. Could see wind gusts up to 25-30kts with storm outflows. Expect
the convection to push south of ATL by 22-23z today. May see some
MVFR level cigs with the convection... but otherwise... mid level
VFR cigs should prevail. Current east winds around 8-10kts will
persist... with an east-southeast wind around 6kts or less expected
overnight. Winds will mix down from the south-southwest by 15z
Mon with speeds 8kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing of convection and southwest winds on Monday. High
on all other elements.

/39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  72  87 /  20  50  50  50
Atlanta         73  91  73  88 /  30  50  40  50
Blairsville     67  86  67  84 /  30  60  60  40
Cartersville    71  91  70  86 /  30  60  50  40
Columbus        72  94  75  90 /  40  40  40  60
Gainesville     73  90  72  84 /  30  50  50  50
Macon           72  94  73  92 /  30  30  30  70
Rome            72  91  72  88 /  30  70  50  30
Peachtree City  71  92  72  88 /  40  50  40  50
Vidalia         73  94  74  93 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-270845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
158 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-
75 IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ080-091-092-261930-
MARION GA-TAYLOR GA-SCHLEY GA-
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION...
SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND NORTHWESTERN SCHLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BUENA
VISTA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BUENA VISTA...MURRAYS CROSSROADS...MAUK...CHARING AND TAZEWELL.

LAT...LON 3232 8458 3256 8447 3257 8441 3256 8434
      3228 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 010DEG 4KT 3245 8440

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
302 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ053-066-067-261930-
TROUP GA-COWETA GA-MERIWETHER GA-
302 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TROUP...SOUTHERN
COWETA AND NORTHERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 302 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LUTHERSVILLE...OR 8
MILES NORTH OF GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GREENVILLE...HOGANSVILLE...GRANTVILLE...LUTHERSVILLE...MORELAND...LON
E OAK...GAY...SAINT MARKS...WOOSTER...ALVATON AND ROCKY MOUNT.

LAT...LON 3332 8478 3314 8454 3298 8470 3318 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 042DEG 6KT 3315 8468

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAUK                    32.50N  84.42W
06/26/2016                   TAYLOR             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER RECEIVED REPORT OF 1 TREE DOWN ON THE
            COUNTY BORDER OF TAYLOR AND MARION COUNTIES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600408

KOVACIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ053>057-262015-
HENRY GA-SPALDING GA-CLAYTON GA-COWETA GA-FAYETTE GA-
351 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HENRY...SPALDING...
SOUTHERN CLAYTON...SOUTHEASTERN COWETA AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WOOLSEY...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GRIFFIN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GRIFFIN...FAYETTEVILLE...HAMPTON...SENOIA...BROOKS...HARALSON...WOOLS
EY... SUNNY SIDE...ZETELLA...DIGBEY...INMAN...HIGHLAND
MILLS...ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY...JW SMITH
RESERVOIR...VAUGHN...BIRDIE...STARRS MILL...LAKE HORTON...ROVER AND
EXPERIMENT.

LAT...LON 3347 8442 3336 8422 3319 8427 3319 8437
      3320 8438 3320 8439 3321 8440 3321 8445
      3319 8449 3319 8450 3320 8449 3322 8451
      3322 8457 3323 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 028DEG 5KT 3330 8437

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
409 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ108-109-262045-
DODGE GA-WILCOX GA-
409 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DODGE AND SOUTHERN
WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 408 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ABBEVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ABBEVILLE...ROCHELLE...PITTS...ANTIOCH CHURCH...OWENSBORO AND
BROWNING.

LAT...LON 3194 8360 3206 8327 3192 8318 3190 8321
      3188 8319 3184 8324 3185 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 058DEG 15KT 3195 8330

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ056-068-069-262045-
UPSON GA-SPALDING GA-PIKE GA-
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN UPSON...SOUTHWESTERN
SPALDING AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ZEBULON...MOVING SOUTH
AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GRIFFIN...ZEBULON...MOLENA...WILLIAMSON...MEANSVILLE...ZETELLA...HILL
TOP... VAUGHN...LIFSEY SPRINGS...HOLLONVILLE...ATWATER AND ROVER.

LAT...LON 3328 8443 3330 8441 3324 8425 3304 8425
      3303 8427 3299 8427 3299 8425 3292 8452
      3293 8453 3295 8452 3296 8453 3297 8452
      3301 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 020DEG 25KT 3309 8437