Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
327 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NOW POSITIONED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES...FED MAINLY BY AN ENHANCED ZONE OF ELEVATED CAPE
ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED OVER SOUTH
ALABAMA. GIVEN ABUNDANT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LINE
OVER NW GEORGIA...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STRONG SHEAR VALUES AND SVR CHANCES THERE
SEEM LIMITED AT THE MOMENT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY THOUGH AS STORMS TO THE WEST HAVE BEEN OVER
ACHIEVERS WHEN COMPARED TO MODEL QPF PROJECTIONS. 3 HOUR MRMS
TOTALS OVER ALABAMA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND A HALF. WITH
ACTIVITY OVER NW GA ALREADY AT .80...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LIKE
SEEN TO THE WEST MAY PUSH A FEW AREAS CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING.

OTHERWISE...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL GA BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE
AS HIGH AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER NORTH GA...INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGHER AND STILL PLENTY ENOUGH SHEAR TO WARRANT A CONTINUED SVR
THREAT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY STILL APPROACHES 300 M2/S2 AND 850 JET
MAINTAINS ITS 50 KT VELOCITIES WELL INTO CENTRAL GA. FEEL THIS
WILL END UP BEING THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THIS WILL BE A PAINFULLY SLOW SYSTEM TO
CLEAR THE AREA WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HOLDING PRECIP WELL BACK INTO
CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND KEEP
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOST TIER OF COUNTIES. GIVEN THIS CHANCE...QPF VALUES ARE
DECIDEDLY HIGHER FOR CENTRAL GA WITH 2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE AND
SOME VALUES CLOSE TO 3 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT. STILL FEEL LIKE
GIVEN THE DURATION THAT THESE AREAS CAN HANDLE THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAST OF THE RAIN CHANCES LOOKS TO EXIT THE SE CWA TO START THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THIS
THAN THE GFS OR EUROPEAN.

DRY FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND SPREADS MAINLY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA
INTO SUNDAY.

THE PROBLEM THEN BECOMES ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MID U.S. AND SPREADS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
RELATIVELY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY. THE AIRMASS
GETS REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND THE OVERALL
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS TO HOW COLD...
TIMING AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES STARTING BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD AND RANGING NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MODELS JUST HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB AT ALL WITH THE SHRA
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS A RESULT...CIGS HAVE
FLUCTUATED GREATLY IN AND OUT OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. EXPECT OVERALL TRENDS HOWEVER TO BE A
DOWNWARD ONE WITH MOST ALL SITES AT IFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
TIMING OF MAIN BAND IS PROBLEMATIC AS WELL BUT FOR NOW HAVE PLACED
IT AT BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR THE ATL AREA SITES. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND THROUGH AFTERNOON AND WILL MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG THROUGH 21Z
WITH VFR CIGS THEREAFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  58  31 / 100  20  20   0
ATLANTA         66  41  53  30 / 100  20  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     64  35  49  26 / 100  20   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    66  38  51  28 / 100  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        67  44  55  32 / 100  20  20   0
GAINESVILLE     66  41  53  30 / 100  20  10   0
MACON           70  47  56  32 / 100  60  20   5
ROME            66  36  51  27 / 100  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  66  40  53  29 / 100  20  10   0
VIDALIA         75  52  58  36 /  90 100  60  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
514 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
514 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA...MAINLY WEST OF A
COLUMBUS TO ATLANTA TO BLAIRSVILLE LINE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN COULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...AS WELL
AS URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORM THREAT...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A ROME TO CANTON TO GAINESVILLE LINE...CAN
BE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 9
AM WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING THE METRO ATLANTA AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THE LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT...MAINLY ACROSS
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SMALLER TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES FALLING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A COLUMBUS TO ATLANTA TO BLAIRSVILLE LINE. SPOTTER
ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-85.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUMMIT REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GAZ020-030-031-041-042-031030-
PAULDING GA-CARROLL GA-HARALSON GA-BARTOW GA-POLK GA-
500 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PAULDING...NORTHWESTERN
CARROLL...HARALSON...BARTOW AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM
EST...

AT 459 AM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR ADAIRSVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCKMART TO NEAR
BOWDON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF
           CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
CARTERSVILLE...DALLAS...BUCHANAN...BREMEN...ADAIRSVILLE...TEMPLE...
ROCKMART...EUHARLEE...TALLAPOOSA...MOUNT ZION...EMERSON...ARAGON...
WHITE...KINGSTON...WACO...BRASWELL...TAYLORSVILLE...CASSVILLE...
YORKVILLE AND BOWDON JUNCTION.

LAT...LON 3387 8521 3408 8514 3408 8512 3410 8512
      3410 8505 3421 8505 3421 8502 3425 8502
      3425 8501 3426 8502 3435 8502 3440 8493
      3440 8473 3410 8476 3367 8501 3353 8531
      3363 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 0959Z 235DEG 43KT 3431 8500 3393 8513 3360 8530

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
650 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GAZ052-053-031215-
HEARD GA-COWETA GA-
650 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HEARD AND COWETA COUNTIES
UNTIL 715 AM EST...

AT 649 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CORINTH...OR 9 MILES
EAST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF
           CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...PALMETTO...SENOIA...GRANTVILLE...
MORELAND...SHARPSBURG...TURIN...CORINTH...EAST NEWNAN...POWERS
CROSSROADS...THOMAS CROSSROADS...HANDY...ARNCO-SARGENT...MADRAS AND
CANNONGATE.

LAT...LON 3351 8472 3351 8466 3345 8463 3344 8463
      3340 8461 3338 8459 3336 8458 3336 8457
      3331 8455 3322 8490 3322 8494 3321 8499
      3335 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1149Z 237DEG 47KT 3331 8495