Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
327 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NOW POSITIONED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES...FED MAINLY BY AN ENHANCED ZONE OF ELEVATED CAPE
ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED OVER SOUTH
ALABAMA. GIVEN ABUNDANT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LINE
OVER NW GEORGIA...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STRONG SHEAR VALUES AND SVR CHANCES THERE
SEEM LIMITED AT THE MOMENT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY THOUGH AS STORMS TO THE WEST HAVE BEEN OVER
ACHIEVERS WHEN COMPARED TO MODEL QPF PROJECTIONS. 3 HOUR MRMS
TOTALS OVER ALABAMA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND A HALF. WITH
ACTIVITY OVER NW GA ALREADY AT .80...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LIKE
SEEN TO THE WEST MAY PUSH A FEW AREAS CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING.

OTHERWISE...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL GA BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE
AS HIGH AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER NORTH GA...INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGHER AND STILL PLENTY ENOUGH SHEAR TO WARRANT A CONTINUED SVR
THREAT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY STILL APPROACHES 300 M2/S2 AND 850 JET
MAINTAINS ITS 50 KT VELOCITIES WELL INTO CENTRAL GA. FEEL THIS
WILL END UP BEING THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THIS WILL BE A PAINFULLY SLOW SYSTEM TO
CLEAR THE AREA WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HOLDING PRECIP WELL BACK INTO
CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND KEEP
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOST TIER OF COUNTIES. GIVEN THIS CHANCE...QPF VALUES ARE
DECIDEDLY HIGHER FOR CENTRAL GA WITH 2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE AND
SOME VALUES CLOSE TO 3 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT. STILL FEEL LIKE
GIVEN THE DURATION THAT THESE AREAS CAN HANDLE THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAST OF THE RAIN CHANCES LOOKS TO EXIT THE SE CWA TO START THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THIS
THAN THE GFS OR EUROPEAN.

DRY FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND SPREADS MAINLY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA
INTO SUNDAY.

THE PROBLEM THEN BECOMES ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MID U.S. AND SPREADS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
RELATIVELY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY. THE AIRMASS
GETS REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND THE OVERALL
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS TO HOW COLD...
TIMING AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES STARTING BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD AND RANGING NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MODELS JUST HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB AT ALL WITH THE SHRA
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS A RESULT...CIGS HAVE
FLUCTUATED GREATLY IN AND OUT OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. EXPECT OVERALL TRENDS HOWEVER TO BE A
DOWNWARD ONE WITH MOST ALL SITES AT IFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
TIMING OF MAIN BAND IS PROBLEMATIC AS WELL BUT FOR NOW HAVE PLACED
IT AT BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR THE ATL AREA SITES. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND THROUGH AFTERNOON AND WILL MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG THROUGH 21Z
WITH VFR CIGS THEREAFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  58  31 / 100  20  20   0
ATLANTA         66  41  53  30 / 100  20  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     64  35  49  26 / 100  20   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    66  38  51  28 / 100  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        67  44  55  32 / 100  20  20   0
GAINESVILLE     66  41  53  30 / 100  20  10   0
MACON           70  47  56  32 / 100  60  20   5
ROME            66  36  51  27 / 100  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  66  40  53  29 / 100  20  10   0
VIDALIA         75  52  58  36 /  90 100  60  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
514 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
514 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA...MAINLY WEST OF A
COLUMBUS TO ATLANTA TO BLAIRSVILLE LINE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN COULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...AS WELL
AS URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORM THREAT...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A ROME TO CANTON TO GAINESVILLE LINE...CAN
BE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 9
AM WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING THE METRO ATLANTA AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THE LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT...MAINLY ACROSS
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SMALLER TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES FALLING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A COLUMBUS TO ATLANTA TO BLAIRSVILLE LINE. SPOTTER
ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-85.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUMMIT REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GAZ001-002-030845-
DADE GA-WALKER GA-
316 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DADE AND WESTERN WALKER COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 AM EST...

AT 316 AM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SOUTH PITTSBURG TO 6 MILES NORTH OF IDER TO NEAR SYLVANIA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF
           CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
CHATTANOOGA...TRENTON...FORT OGLETHORPE...ROSSVILLE...LOOKOUT
MOUNTAIN...RISING FAWN...CHATTANOOGA  VALLEY...CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE
PARK...COOPER HEIGHTS...NEW ENGLAND...COLE CITY...MORGANVILLE...
WILDWOOD...HOOKER...FAIRVIEW AND STEPHENSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3494 8527 3459 8548 3459 8553 3498 8560
      3499 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 246DEG 39KT 3501 8567 3479 8567 3460 8581

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GAZ001-002-011-019-030915-
DADE GA-CHATTOOGA GA-WALKER GA-FLOYD GA-
345 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DADE...CHATTOOGA...
WALKER AND SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM EST...

AT 343 AM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR RISING FAWN TO CENTRE ALABAMA OR 12 MILES WEST OF CAVE
SPRING...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF
           CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
LAFAYETTE...SUMMERVILLE...FORT OGLETHORPE...CHICKAMAUGA...TRION...LA
FAYETTE...LYERLY...MENLO...RISING FAWN...CLOUDLAND...COOSA...
HOLLAND...BERRYTON...NOBLE...COOPER HEIGHTS...CENTER POST...JAMES H.
FLOYD STATE PARK...CHATTOOGAVILLE...ROCK SPRING AND LINWOOD.

LAT...LON 3484 8527 3485 8520 3452 8522 3415 8531
      3411 8543 3477 8556 3497 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0843Z 231DEG 46KT 3468 8561 3405 8578