Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1230 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.AVIATION.../06z Update/
Strongest convection now moving through the I-35 terminals. Will
begin the forecast period with gusty winds to 30-35 kts in the
wake of strong convection moving across the region. MVFR cigs will
start this forecast period. Expecting to see IFR conditions after
10z for all locations with KDRT being the latest around 12z. Will
see gradual improvements through the morning but all sites will
remain at MVFR levels throughout the day. Winds will be northerly
near 10 knots once convection clears the area. Expecting to see
N/NE winds 10 to 15 knots Wednesday. Northerly winds decrease to
5-10 knots after 00z. KDRT will see easterly winds near 10 knots.
After 19/03z expect cigs to fall back into MVFR levels.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

AVIATION...
SAT is the last airport at MVFR. Still think they will lift
shortly as SSF is VFR. A line of thunderstorms is moving down from
the north. Think this convection will move into DRT by around 03z
and the I-35 airports by around 06z. Convection will drop category
to MVFR. CIGs will drop to IFR by around 10z or 12z. Improvement
to MVFR by around noon Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Severe weather prospects continue to evolve through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Firstly, an outflow boundary has
progressed into the southern border of the CWA, which is farther
than originally anticipated. As a result...surface winds have been
light and out of the northeast generally with a turning to a more
easterly or slightly southeasterly as you approach the western
zones/areas. While instability is more than sufficient in the
Maverick/Zavala/Dimmit county area, the outflow boundary is south
of there and providing the focused surface based lifting in the
south.

Farther north, the Mexican supercell that has been going strong
for the last few hours has produced a vast anvil overhang over
the Rio Grande Plains which has limited surface temps even further
from warming to the 89-90 degree convective temperatures in that
area. Think window of opportunity for convection along the Rio
Grande Plains is waning quickly as a result. Primary area of new
development this evening should stay south of the CWA with the
boundary.

Farther north, convection firing near a triple point in the
northwest corner of Val Verde should temporarily delay the
progression of the severe cluster around the Ozona area. Then the
most likely scenario is a southeast push as the storms
conglomerate and develop outflow. The main threats will continue
to be very large hail and will evolve into a wind threat as the
line evolves and begins pushing southeast. Also...lapse rates and
instability in the -10 to -20 degree range will be conducive for
very dangerous lightning activity this evening as well.

Timing for storms to enter the Plateau counties will be in the
next 1-2 hours, for the Hill Country, 2-4 hours, and the I-35
corridor, 4-7 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Concerns in the short term will be monitoring the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of south central
Texas this afternoon and evening. The latest model data has
trended farther westward with the higher severe chances as this
area has been able to heat up quicker than points eastward. This
along with upper lift coming in from the southwest should keep the
higher threat for severe weather generally west of a Llano to
Hallettsville line this afternoon and evening. The main severe
weather concerns will be large hail along with damaging winds.
Some locally heavy rainfall is also possible and this may result
in localized flooding, especially in areas with saturated soils.
Severe weather concerns will decrease by very early Wednesday
morning as a cold front slips south into the coastal plains and
westward into the Rio Grande. Winds should quickly shift back to a
more southeasterly direction by Wednesday afternoon along the Rio
Grande and this should aid in developing showers and
thunderstorms across the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande.
Steering flow should send some of this activity into the Rio
Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau during the afternoon
and evening hours. We expect some of this activity to be severe,
especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the main concern, although locally
backed winds in the low-levels could increase the tornado threat
along the Rio Grande plains. By late Wednesday night, MCS
development is expected to take place over west Texas into the
Edwards Plateau.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The above mentioned MCS is expected to move eastward across west
central Texas into portions of the Hill Country on Thursday. For
now, it appears the models have shifted the better chance for
rainfall into areas along and east of the I-10 corridor. If the
MCS gets organized as expected, we could see a damaging wind
and hail concern. Locally heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern with this system late Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall
totals in some areas (mainly along and east of I-10) could reach
4 to 5 inches through Thursday. The MCS is then expected to move
east of the region by late Thursday evening.

Rain chances drop significantly on Friday as an upper level
trough axis translates east into the lower Mississippi river
valley. High pressure in the mid and upper levels will build
across Texas behind the departing trough. This should bring mostly
dry conditions Friday and Saturday, but we could still see some
isolated showers and thunderstorms develop in response to peak
heating and subtle upper disturbances in the southwesterly flow
aloft. On Sunday, the medium range models agree in showing the mid
and upper level ridge moving east of Texas as an upper trough
slowly deepens over the western U.S. Again, we can't completely
rule out some additional rainfall chances into early next week,
but we'll keep rain chances low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  78  65  78  67 /  40  40  50  80  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  79  65  78  66 /  40  40  50  80  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  79  66  79  66 /  80  40  50  80  50
Burnet Muni Airport            62  74  63  75  63 /  40  40  60  80  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  81  67  82  66 /  80  60  70  60  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  76  63  76  64 /  20  40  60  80  60
Hondo Muni Airport             68  81  67  80  66 /  80  40  60  70  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  79  65  78  66 /  60  40  50  80  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  81  68  78  69 /  50  40  40  80  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  79  67  78  68 /  80  40  50  80  40
Stinson Muni Airport           69  82  68  81  68 /  80  40  50  80  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-190230-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
916 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE TORNADO AS
WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PERIODS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. ANY OF THESE ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY COULD EXCEED 4 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCAL AREAS. WITH THE
SOILS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BECOMING SATURATED...FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BECOME A THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TB3

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
215 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

TXZ218-219-228-180800-
DIMMIT TX-FRIO TX-ZAVALA TX-
215 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DIMMIT...
SOUTHWESTERN FRIO AND SOUTHEASTERN ZAVALA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM
CDT...

AT 214 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BIG WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DILLEY...BIG WELLS...LAS VEGAS...DIVOT...BRUNDAGE AND DERBY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2848 9976 2875 9973 2877 9910 2864 9911
      2864 9939 2844 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 275DEG 28KT 2860 9961

LJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
228 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             2 NNW NOONAN            29.30N  98.92W
05/17/2016  M3.00 INCH       MEDINA             TX   COCORAHS

            DELAYED REPORT...BASEBALL TO TEA CUP SIZE HAIL OBSERVED

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600397

LJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW MARION            29.60N  98.15W
05/18/2016                   GUADALUPE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER RESCUE AT 2500 BLOCK OF MARION ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600398

LJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FLORESVILLE             29.14N  98.16W
05/18/2016                   WILSON             TX   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. SOME
            INSTANCES WITH TREES FALLING ON CARS. MINOR STRUCTURAL
            DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND SIDING ALSO REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600399

TB3

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

TXZ217-218-228-180945-
DIMMIT TX-ZAVALA TX-MAVERICK TX-
401 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 400 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ROSITA NORTH...OR NEAR EAGLE PASS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLE PASS...ROSITA NORTH...ROSITA SOUTH...FARIAS LAKE...EIDSON ROAD...
SECO MINES...LAS QUINTAS FRONTERIZAS AND ELM CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2855 10041 2858 10040 2861 10045 2864 10045
      2864 10046 2866 10050 2871 10051 2875 10051
      2876 10053 2877 10053 2879 10006 2852 10006
TIME...MOT...LOC 0900Z 268DEG 19KT 2865 10048

MO