Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

100 
WWUS54 KEWX 180311
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1011 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXC171-259-265-180345-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-160518T0345Z/
GILLESPIE TX-KERR TX-KENDALL TX-
1011 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GILLESPIE...EAST CENTRAL KERR AND NORTHWESTERN
KENDALL COUNTIES...

AT 1011 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
CYPRESS CREEK...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF KERRVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KERRVILLE...FREDERICKSBURG AND KERRVILLE STATE PARK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3003 9914 3019 9916 3030 9891 3002 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 266DEG 18KT 3012 9902 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
655 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.AVIATION...
SAT is the last airport at MVFR. Still think they will lift
shortly as SSF is VFR. A line of thunderstorms is moving down from
the north. Think this convection will move into DRT by around 03z
and the I-35 airports by around 06z. Convection will drop category
to MVFR. CIGs will drop to IFR by around 10z or 12z. Improvement
to MVFR by around noon Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Severe weather prospects continue to evolve through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Firstly, an outflow boundary has
progressed into the southern border of the CWA, which is farther
than originally anticipated. As a result...surface winds have been
light and out of the northeast generally with a turning to a more
easterly or slightly southeasterly as you approach the western
zones/areas. While instability is more than sufficient in the
Maverick/Zavala/Dimmit county area, the outflow boundary is south
of there and providing the focused surface based lifting in the
south.

Farther north, the Mexican supercell that has been going strong
for the last few hours has produced a vast anvil overhang over
the Rio Grande Plains which has limited surface temps even further
from warming to the 89-90 degree convective temperatures in that
area. Think window of opportunity for convection along the Rio
Grande Plains is waning quickly as a result. Primary area of new
development this evening should stay south of the CWA with the
boundary.

Farther north, convection firing near a triple point in the
northwest corner of Val Verde should temporarily delay the
progression of the severe cluster around the Ozona area. Then the
most likely scenario is a southeast push as the storms
conglomerate and develop outflow. The main threats will continue
to be very large hail and will evolve into a wind threat as the
line evolves and begins pushing southeast. Also...lapse rates and
instability in the -10 to -20 degree range will be conducive for
very dangerous lightning activity this evening as well.

Timing for storms to enter the Plateau counties will be in the
next 1-2 hours, for the Hill Country, 2-4 hours, and the I-35
corridor, 4-7 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Concerns in the short term will be monitoring the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of south central
Texas this afternoon and evening. The latest model data has
trended farther westward with the higher severe chances as this
area has been able to heat up quicker than points eastward. This
along with upper lift coming in from the southwest should keep the
higher threat for severe weather generally west of a Llano to
Hallettsville line this afternoon and evening. The main severe
weather concerns will be large hail along with damaging winds.
Some locally heavy rainfall is also possible and this may result
in localized flooding, especially in areas with saturated soils.
Severe weather concerns will decrease by very early Wednesday
morning as a cold front slips south into the coastal plains and
westward into the Rio Grande. Winds should quickly shift back to a
more southeasterly direction by Wednesday afternoon along the Rio
Grande and this should aid in developing showers and
thunderstorms across the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande.
Steering flow should send some of this activity into the Rio
Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau during the afternoon
and evening hours. We expect some of this activity to be severe,
especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the main concern, although locally
backed winds in the low-levels could increase the tornado threat
along the Rio Grande plains. By late Wednesday night, MCS
development is expected to take place over west Texas into the
Edwards Plateau.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The above mentioned MCS is expected to move eastward across west
central Texas into portions of the Hill Country on Thursday. For
now, it appears the models have shifted the better chance for
rainfall into areas along and east of the I-10 corridor. If the
MCS gets organized as expected, we could see a damaging wind
and hail concern. Locally heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern with this system late Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall
totals in some areas (mainly along and east of I-10) could reach
4 to 5 inches through Thursday. The MCS is then expected to move
east of the region by late Thursday evening.

Rain chances drop significantly on Friday as an upper level
trough axis translates east into the lower Mississippi river
valley. High pressure in the mid and upper levels will build
across Texas behind the departing trough. This should bring mostly
dry conditions Friday and Saturday, but we could still see some
isolated showers and thunderstorms develop in response to peak
heating and subtle upper disturbances in the southwesterly flow
aloft. On Sunday, the medium range models agree in showing the mid
and upper level ridge moving east of Texas as an upper trough
slowly deepens over the western U.S. Again, we can't completely
rule out some additional rainfall chances into early next week,
but we'll keep rain chances low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  78  65  78  67 /  60  40  50  80  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  79  65  78  66 /  60  40  50  80  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  79  66  79  66 /  60  40  50  80  50
Burnet Muni Airport            62  74  63  75  63 /  70  40  60  80  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  81  67  82  66 /  80  60  70  60  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  76  63  76  64 /  60  40  60  80  60
Hondo Muni Airport             68  81  67  80  66 /  80  40  60  70  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  79  65  78  66 /  60  40  50  80  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  81  68  78  69 /  50  40  40  80  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  79  67  78  68 /  70  40  50  80  40
Stinson Muni Airport           69  82  68  81  68 /  70  40  50  80  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-190230-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
916 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE TORNADO AS
WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PERIODS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. ANY OF THESE ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY COULD EXCEED 4 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCAL AREAS. WITH THE
SOILS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BECOMING SATURATED...FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BECOME A THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TB3

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
754 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXZ184>186-188-180215-
REAL TX-GILLESPIE TX-EDWARDS TX-KERR TX-
754 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GILLESPIE...NORTHERN
KERR...NORTHEASTERN EDWARDS AND NORTHERN REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

AT 754 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JUNCTION TO 16 MILES NORTH OF ROCKSPRINGS.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOSS...KERR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...HARPER...CHERRY SPRING...MOUNTAIN
HOME...TIVYDALE...US-377 NEAR THE KIMBLE-
EDWARDS COUNTY LINE...DEVILS SINKHOLE STATE NATURAL AREA...US-
83 NEAR THE KERR-KIMBLE COUNTY LINE...I-10 NEAR THE KIMBLE-
KERR COUNTY LINE AND THE INTERSECTION OF I-10 AND US 290.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3050 9899 3015 9896 2990 10016 3029 10025
      3029 9930 3050 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 332DEG 16KT 3051 9972 3025 10026

MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
839 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     HAIL             3 N HARPER              30.34N  99.25W
05/17/2016  M1.50 INCH       GILLESPIE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600378

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
851 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXZ185>188-203-204-180230-
BANDERA TX-REAL TX-GILLESPIE TX-MEDINA TX-UVALDE TX-KERR TX-
851 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GILLESPIE...CENTRAL
KERR...NORTHEASTERN UVALDE...WESTERN BANDERA...NORTHWESTERN MEDINA
AND SOUTHEASTERN REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 849 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HUNT...OR 15 MILES WEST OF KERRVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH. THIS STORM WAS PART OF SEVERAL RAPIDLY GROWING CELLS THAT
EXTEND SOUTH TO NEAR CONCAN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEDINA...KERRVILLE...TARPLEY...VANDERPOOL...HUNT...INGRAM...WALTONIA...
GARNER STATE PARK...RIO FRIO...LOST MAPLES STATE PARK...KERRVILLE STATE
PARK...CONCAN AND UTOPIA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3004 9954 3024 9909 2937 9927 2933 9989
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 208DEG 23KT 3009 9938

MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
905 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     HAIL             UTOPIA                  29.62N  99.53W
05/17/2016  M0.70 INCH       UVALDE             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600379

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
923 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXZ183>186-188-189-202-180300-
REAL TX-GILLESPIE TX-EDWARDS TX-VAL VERDE TX-KINNEY TX-KENDALL TX-
KERR TX-
923 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GILLESPIE...NORTHEASTERN
VAL VERDE...KERR...NORTHWESTERN KENDALL...EDWARDS...NORTH CENTRAL
KINNEY AND NORTHERN REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 922 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TIVYDALE TO NEAR CARTA
VALLEY. MOVEMENT OF THE LINE IS SOUTH AT 15 MPH...WHILE INDIVIDUAL
CELLS ARE TRACKING GENERALLY EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KERRVILLE...FREDERICKSBURG...ROCKSPRINGS...LOMA ALTA...HUNT...INGRAM...
WALTONIA...KERR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...VANCE...CARTA VALLEY...
MOUNTAIN HOME...KERRVILLE STATE PARK...FLOUR MILLS...TIVYDALE...DOSS...
HARPER...PRADE RANCH...US-377 NEAR THE KIMBLE-EDWARDS COUNTY LINE...US-
83 NEAR THE KERR-KIMBLE COUNTY LINE AND I-10 NEAR THE KIMBLE-
KERR COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3050 9908 3009 9881 2991 9946 2991 9960
      2986 9960 2955 10067 3015 10094 3029 10030
      3029 9930 3050 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 341DEG 12KT 3020 9900 2978 10064

MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     HAIL             1 S MEDINA              29.79N  99.25W
05/17/2016  M0.50 INCH       BANDERA            TX   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600380

CVP