River Flood Warning 28, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

686 
WGUS84 KEWX 180824
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Guadalupe River at Hunt Affecting Kerr County
  Guadalupe River At NB Below Comal Affecting Comal and Guadalupe Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC265-180854-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-160518T2300Z/
/HNTT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
324 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Guadalupe River at Hunt.
* At  2:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 9.6 feet. The river will 
  continue to fall. 
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Water extends into low areas of the flood plain.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun
  Hunt              10   10    8.9   Wed  2 AM   8.9   8.5   8.2   8.1   8.1


&&

LAT...LON 3003 9941 3010 9941 3010 9916 3003 9919


$$

TXC091-187-180854-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-160518T2004Z/
/GBCT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
324 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Guadalupe River At NB Below Comal.
* At  2:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 12.0 feet. The river will 
  continue to fall. 
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding extends into the flood plain 
  closing lowest roads and crossings near the river.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun
  NB Below Comal    13   13   11.8   Wed  3 AM  11.1  10.4  10.3  10.3  10.3


&&

LAT...LON 2969 9812 2971 9809 2963 9801 2958 9797
      2952 9801 2959 9807             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1230 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.AVIATION.../06z Update/
Strongest convection now moving through the I-35 terminals. Will
begin the forecast period with gusty winds to 30-35 kts in the
wake of strong convection moving across the region. MVFR cigs will
start this forecast period. Expecting to see IFR conditions after
10z for all locations with KDRT being the latest around 12z. Will
see gradual improvements through the morning but all sites will
remain at MVFR levels throughout the day. Winds will be northerly
near 10 knots once convection clears the area. Expecting to see
N/NE winds 10 to 15 knots Wednesday. Northerly winds decrease to
5-10 knots after 00z. KDRT will see easterly winds near 10 knots.
After 19/03z expect cigs to fall back into MVFR levels.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

AVIATION...
SAT is the last airport at MVFR. Still think they will lift
shortly as SSF is VFR. A line of thunderstorms is moving down from
the north. Think this convection will move into DRT by around 03z
and the I-35 airports by around 06z. Convection will drop category
to MVFR. CIGs will drop to IFR by around 10z or 12z. Improvement
to MVFR by around noon Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Severe weather prospects continue to evolve through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Firstly, an outflow boundary has
progressed into the southern border of the CWA, which is farther
than originally anticipated. As a result...surface winds have been
light and out of the northeast generally with a turning to a more
easterly or slightly southeasterly as you approach the western
zones/areas. While instability is more than sufficient in the
Maverick/Zavala/Dimmit county area, the outflow boundary is south
of there and providing the focused surface based lifting in the
south.

Farther north, the Mexican supercell that has been going strong
for the last few hours has produced a vast anvil overhang over
the Rio Grande Plains which has limited surface temps even further
from warming to the 89-90 degree convective temperatures in that
area. Think window of opportunity for convection along the Rio
Grande Plains is waning quickly as a result. Primary area of new
development this evening should stay south of the CWA with the
boundary.

Farther north, convection firing near a triple point in the
northwest corner of Val Verde should temporarily delay the
progression of the severe cluster around the Ozona area. Then the
most likely scenario is a southeast push as the storms
conglomerate and develop outflow. The main threats will continue
to be very large hail and will evolve into a wind threat as the
line evolves and begins pushing southeast. Also...lapse rates and
instability in the -10 to -20 degree range will be conducive for
very dangerous lightning activity this evening as well.

Timing for storms to enter the Plateau counties will be in the
next 1-2 hours, for the Hill Country, 2-4 hours, and the I-35
corridor, 4-7 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Concerns in the short term will be monitoring the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of south central
Texas this afternoon and evening. The latest model data has
trended farther westward with the higher severe chances as this
area has been able to heat up quicker than points eastward. This
along with upper lift coming in from the southwest should keep the
higher threat for severe weather generally west of a Llano to
Hallettsville line this afternoon and evening. The main severe
weather concerns will be large hail along with damaging winds.
Some locally heavy rainfall is also possible and this may result
in localized flooding, especially in areas with saturated soils.
Severe weather concerns will decrease by very early Wednesday
morning as a cold front slips south into the coastal plains and
westward into the Rio Grande. Winds should quickly shift back to a
more southeasterly direction by Wednesday afternoon along the Rio
Grande and this should aid in developing showers and
thunderstorms across the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande.
Steering flow should send some of this activity into the Rio
Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau during the afternoon
and evening hours. We expect some of this activity to be severe,
especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the main concern, although locally
backed winds in the low-levels could increase the tornado threat
along the Rio Grande plains. By late Wednesday night, MCS
development is expected to take place over west Texas into the
Edwards Plateau.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The above mentioned MCS is expected to move eastward across west
central Texas into portions of the Hill Country on Thursday. For
now, it appears the models have shifted the better chance for
rainfall into areas along and east of the I-10 corridor. If the
MCS gets organized as expected, we could see a damaging wind
and hail concern. Locally heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern with this system late Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall
totals in some areas (mainly along and east of I-10) could reach
4 to 5 inches through Thursday. The MCS is then expected to move
east of the region by late Thursday evening.

Rain chances drop significantly on Friday as an upper level
trough axis translates east into the lower Mississippi river
valley. High pressure in the mid and upper levels will build
across Texas behind the departing trough. This should bring mostly
dry conditions Friday and Saturday, but we could still see some
isolated showers and thunderstorms develop in response to peak
heating and subtle upper disturbances in the southwesterly flow
aloft. On Sunday, the medium range models agree in showing the mid
and upper level ridge moving east of Texas as an upper trough
slowly deepens over the western U.S. Again, we can't completely
rule out some additional rainfall chances into early next week,
but we'll keep rain chances low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  78  65  78  67 /  40  40  50  80  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  79  65  78  66 /  40  40  50  80  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  79  66  79  66 /  80  40  50  80  50
Burnet Muni Airport            62  74  63  75  63 /  40  40  60  80  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  81  67  82  66 /  80  60  70  60  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  76  63  76  64 /  20  40  60  80  60
Hondo Muni Airport             68  81  67  80  66 /  80  40  60  70  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  79  65  78  66 /  60  40  50  80  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  81  68  78  69 /  50  40  40  80  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  79  67  78  68 /  80  40  50  80  40
Stinson Muni Airport           69  82  68  81  68 /  80  40  50  80  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-190230-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
916 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE TORNADO AS
WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PERIODS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. ANY OF THESE ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY COULD EXCEED 4 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCAL AREAS. WITH THE
SOILS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BECOMING SATURATED...FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BECOME A THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TB3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1235 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW LIVE OAK          29.57N  98.41W
05/18/2016                   BEXAR              TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            STAHL RD AT HAYMARKET CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600392

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1250 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

TXZ207-208-221>224-180630-
WILSON TX-GUADALUPE TX-DE WITT TX-KARNES TX-GONZALES TX-CALDWELL TX-
1250 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KARNES...SOUTHWESTERN
CALDWELL...WEST CENTRAL DEWITT...GONZALES...GUADALUPE AND WILSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1250 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF PALMETO TO NEAR POTH. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEGUIN...GONZALES...FLORESVILLE...LULING...KARNES CITY...POTH...STOCKDALE...
KOSCIUSKO...NIXON...LA VERNIA...FALLS CITY...SMILEY...NEW BERLIN...GILLETT...
GERONIMO...KINGSBURY...PANDORA...PALMETO...SUTHERLAND SPRINGS AND
WESTHOFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2880 9795 2903 9833 2907 9837 2979 9790
      2960 9734 2912 9744
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 278DEG 29KT 2956 9772 2905 9802

MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1252 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE TERRELL HILLS     29.49N  98.44W
05/18/2016                   BEXAR              TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            VANDIVER RD N AT IRVINGTON CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600393

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1259 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N WINDCREST           29.54N  98.38W
05/18/2016                   BEXAR              TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            WEIDNER RD AT SCHERTZ RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600394

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
110 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 WSW NEW BRAUNFELS    29.65N  98.27W
05/18/2016                   COMAL              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS DEPT REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COMAL COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600395

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
112 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEW BRAUNFELS           29.70N  98.12W
05/18/2016                   COMAL              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL HIGH WATER RESCUES OCCURRING ON ROADS IN NEW
            BRAUNFELS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600396

CVP