Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
614 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.AVIATION.../OOZ TAFS
VFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES
AS TSRA REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTHWEST FROM JCT TO AQO TO JUST SOUTH OF ACT. SHRA AND ISO
TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF SAT/SSF AS WELL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TSRA AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE I-35
TAF SITES UNTIL 5-6Z IF CURRENT RADAR AND HI-RES MODEL TRENDS HOLD
AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 10-11Z. SHRA SHOULD END FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 12-14Z AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT
AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. LESS CONFIDENT THAT TSRA WILL OCCUR AT DRT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA THERE FROM 4-8Z.

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AS ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION PROGRESSES OUT NORTH OUT OF OUR
CWA...MORE DEVELOPMENT IS BEING OBSERVED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
FURTHER WEST IN THE BIG BEND AND WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AREA.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN BURNET COUNTY AS
WELL AS A DRY LINE POSITIONED ALONG A LINE FROM JUST EAST OF
SONORA...TO JUST WEST OF ROCKSPRINGS...TO CARRIZO SPRINGS. A
THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRY LINE IN SOUTHERN DIMMIT
COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE...ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ESCARPMENT...A SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AXIS IS SET UP ALL THE WAY TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN BOUNDARY. AS FURTHER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST...THIS COULD BE THE AREA OF BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE STILL THE MAIN THREATS GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT TORNADIC
POTENTIAL IS STILL POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. TORNADIC POTENTIAL
SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO
AN AREA WITH LOWER LCLS AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO NORTH TEXAS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION...SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED AND
DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED TO INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AS A WEAK BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN EDWARDS COUNTY BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR NORTHWEST LLANO COUNTY. ANY STORMS
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN HIGH-BASED
GIVEN TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS OF 40 DEGREES OR MORE AS OF LATE
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AS STRONG UPPER LIFT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE
MAIN CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN FAVORABLE WINDS IN THE LOWEST
FEW KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD
START TO SEE SEVERE CONCERNS DECREASE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 3/4" ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...
AROUND 2" ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 3.5" INCHES ALONG
HIGHWAY 77. SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAINFALL COULD PUSH
RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 5 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO AREAS EAST OF
I-35...WITH CURRENT EMPHASIS ON THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HIGHWAY 77
CORRIDOR WHERE A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WE/LL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS AREA CAREFULLY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IF CURRENT MODELS ARE CORRECT...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LIFT WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WE HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO EAST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY... BUT
WE DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 90S ON
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  62  76  57  69 /  40 100  70  50  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  62  76  57  69 /  40 100  70  50  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  62  78  57  70 /  30 100  60  50  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  59  73  55  66 /  50 100  60  40  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  58  75  54  68 /  40  80  40  40  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  62  74  57  67 /  50 100  70  50  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  59  77  55  70 /  20 100  40  30  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  62  77  57  69 /  30 100  70  50  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  65  77  59  71 /  40 100  80  70  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       81  62  77  58  69 /  20 100  50  40  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  63  79  58  71 /  20 100  50  40  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
520 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-092330-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
520 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
RIO GRANDE RIVER THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT ONE OR TWO TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH AN ISOLATED POCKET OR TWO OF
UP TO 5 INCHES EAST OF I-35. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IN
URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS THAT NORMALLY HAVE FASTER
RUNOFF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD POSE NO SEVERE OR HEAVY
RAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

TB3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
716 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             CARRIZO SPRINGS         28.53N  99.86W
03/08/2016  E0.25 INCH       DIMMIT             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ALSO HAD SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT COULD NOT ESTIMATE
            THE SPEED

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600033

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
717 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             UVALDE                  29.22N  99.78W
03/08/2016  E0.25 INCH       UVALDE             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600034

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
720 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             CARRIZO SPRINGS         28.53N  99.86W
03/08/2016  E0.70 INCH       DIMMIT             TX   PUBLIC

            ALSO HAD SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT SPEED NOT PROVIDED

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600035

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
737 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             8 N UVALDE              29.33N  99.78W
03/08/2016  E0.70 INCH       UVALDE             TX   PUBLIC

            PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600036

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
742 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             8 N UVALDE              29.33N  99.78W
03/08/2016  E1.00 INCH       UVALDE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AROUND THE RANCHO ENCINO SUB DIVISION

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600038

SBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
804 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ202-203-217-218-090300-
ZAVALA TX-KINNEY TX-UVALDE TX-MAVERICK TX-
804 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN UVALDE...
SOUTHEASTERN KINNEY...NORTHEASTERN MAVERICK AND NORTHWESTERN ZAVALA
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CST...

AT 804 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
DABNEY...OR 14 MILES EAST OF SPOFFORD...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRACKETTVILLE...BLEWETT...LAGUNA...DABNEY...ANACACHO...CLINE AND TURKEY
MOUNTAIN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2893 10001 2888 10023 2936 10047 2944 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 182DEG 38KT 2920 10017

MO