Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRY LINE POSITIONED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. STRONGEST CELLS CONTINUE TO BE FED BY
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
FLOW. THERE STILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AXIS IN
THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND THE RAP IS INDICATING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7+ DEG C/KM IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND EXTREME LIGHTNING.
TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW BUT AS THESE CELLS PUSH SLOWLY
FARTHER EAST...THEY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A MORE FAVORABLE LCL
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL MEANS THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

REGARDING FLOOD POTENTIAL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG
A LINE FROM CENTRAL DIMMITT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH REAL COUNTY.
WHILE THE PLATEAU COUNTIES SHOULD AVOID MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL NOW THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONGOING SOUTH OF DIMMITT AND ZAVALA
INDICATES AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH RAIN RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE CELLS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME LINEAR AND PUSH EAST
TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR
HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME LIKELY
DELAYING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE. AS SUCH...NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WATCH ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL NEED TO RE-
EVALUATE IN A FEW HOURS AS THIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  76  57  69  55 / 100  70  50  60  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  76  57  69  53 / 100  70  50  60  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  78  57  70  54 / 100  60  50  60  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  73  55  66  52 / 100  60  40  60  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           58  75  54  68  51 /  80  40  40  60  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  74  57  67  54 / 100  70  50  60  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  77  55  70  52 / 100  40  30  60  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  77  57  69  54 / 100  70  50  60  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  77  59  71  55 / 100  80  70  50  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  77  58  69  54 / 100  50  40  60  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  79  58  71  54 / 100  50  40  50  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
520 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-092330-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
520 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
RIO GRANDE RIVER THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT ONE OR TWO TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH AN ISOLATED POCKET OR TWO OF
UP TO 5 INCHES EAST OF I-35. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IN
URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS THAT NORMALLY HAVE FASTER
RUNOFF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD POSE NO SEVERE OR HEAVY
RAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

TB3

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
845 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ218-219-090345-
FRIO TX-ZAVALA TX-
845 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FRIO AND EASTERN ZAVALA
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CST...

AT 845 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF BLUFF...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BATESVILLE...MOVING
NORTH AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATESVILLE...FRIO TOWN...LOMA VISTA...BLUFF AND BRUNDAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2908 9980 2909 9909 2865 9933 2864 9974
      2864 9977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 197DEG 30KT 2887 9941

MO

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1015 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ218-219-228-090515-
DIMMIT TX-FRIO TX-ZAVALA TX-
1015 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DIMMIT...
NORTHWESTERN FRIO AND EASTERN ZAVALA COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CST...

AT 1015 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOMA VISTA...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF BIG WELLS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEARSALL...BATESVILLE...MOORE...DIVOT...FRIO TOWN...BIG FOOT...NORTH
PEARSALL...LOMA VISTA...WEST PEARSALL...BLUFF...BIGFOOT...BRUNDAGE AND
THREE OAKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2865 9971 2907 9957 2906 9883 2864 9928
      2864 9939 2854 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 220DEG 27KT 2869 9948

CP