Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
Issued by National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016

.Short Term...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

Convection increased early this afternoon along and/or just ahead
of a sfc front that has moved southeast into far nw MO/ne KS. The
first wave of stronger convection is already propagating off to
the east of the cwfa. However, high res models are consistent in
developing additional showers/thunderstorms along the front,
especially over the southeastern portion of the cwfa as the sfc
front begins to advance to the southeast later this afternoon and
early this evening. A few stronger storms may still develop later
this afternoon while sfc based instability exists over parts of
west central into central MO where temperatures are still in the
mid-upper 70s. Vertical shear weakens as you head you head south
but could see some small hail/wind gusts with some stronger
updrafts/storms.

Once the front pushes all the way through the area this evening,
some post frontal lower clouds will give way to clearing late
tonight. Sfc high pressure will build into the area for Thu with
beautiful autumn weather returning.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

A sharp upper level ridge axis will shift east from eastern KS through
MO Fri through early Sunday. Mild weather with light south winds
are expected through this period.

Medium range guidance is fairly consistent in taking a closed low
that is now meandering over the sw U.S. and opening it up while
lifting it northeast into the central High Plains by Sunday
night then shifting it slowly east as a positively tilted trough
by early Tue. By days 6 and 7 (Tue-Wed) guidance starts to diverge
on large scale features. Some chances for rain (still fairly low
pops) for late Sunday into Mon look reasonable. Whatever is left
of the weakening upper system by Tue may linger as a weak upper
level shear axis if the upper ridge builds back up to our east as
depicted by the ECMWF. In any case, a model blend dosen't yield
much in the way of rain chances at this time for Tue-Wed.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 CDT WED NOV 2 2016

For the KMCI/KMKC/KSTJ/KIXD tafs: A sfc front that extends from
southern IA into far nw MO and ne KS. A wave of low pressure
along the front will move through nw MO (taf sites) early in the
taf period with winds gradually shifting the north toward 00z.
Some showers/a few thunderstorms will occur until the passage of
the sfc low and cold frontal passage. A period of mvfr or possibly
ifr ceilings will occur in the cooler air behind the front before
clearing occurs from the northwest between 09z-12z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Short Term...DSA (SGF)
Long Term...DSA (SGF)
Aviation...DSA (SGF)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
453 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
453 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 PM CDT WED NOV 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             NORTH KANSAS CITY       39.13N 94.56W
11/02/2016  E0.88 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT INTERSTATE 29 AND 72ST.
            STREET.

&&

MELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 PM CDT WED NOV 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             PARKVILLE               39.20N 94.68W
11/02/2016  E0.75 INCH       PLATTE             MO   PUBLIC

            HAIL REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF STATE ROUTE 9 AND
            45.

&&

MELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
310 PM CDT WED NOV 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             GLADSTONE               39.20N 94.56W
11/02/2016  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CDT WED NOV 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             GLADSTONE               39.20N 94.56W
11/02/2016  E1.25 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAFLIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
315 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

MOZ033-040-022045-
RANDOLPH MO-HOWARD MO-
315 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RANDOLPH AND NORTHERN
HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 315 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ARMSTRONG...OR NEAR FAYETTE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOBERLY...FAYETTE...GLASGOW...HIGBEE...CLARK...ARMSTRONG AND RENICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 9232 3925 9243 3918 9246 3913 9281
      3926 9284 3929 9282 3933 9272 3932 9271
      3933 9270 3947 9233 3941 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 250DEG 28KT 3924 9268

LG