Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
Issued by National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016

.Short Term...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

Convection increased early this afternoon along and/or just ahead
of a sfc front that has moved southeast into far nw MO/ne KS. The
first wave of stronger convection is already propagating off to
the east of the cwfa. However, high res models are consistent in
developing additional showers/thunderstorms along the front,
especially over the southeastern portion of the cwfa as the sfc
front begins to advance to the southeast later this afternoon and
early this evening. A few stronger storms may still develop later
this afternoon while sfc based instability exists over parts of
west central into central MO where temperatures are still in the
mid-upper 70s. Vertical shear weakens as you head you head south
but could see some small hail/wind gusts with some stronger
updrafts/storms.

Once the front pushes all the way through the area this evening,
some post frontal lower clouds will give way to clearing late
tonight. Sfc high pressure will build into the area for Thu with
beautiful autumn weather returning.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

A sharp upper level ridge axis will shift east from eastern KS through
MO Fri through early Sunday. Mild weather with light south winds
are expected through this period.

Medium range guidance is fairly consistent in taking a closed low
that is now meandering over the sw U.S. and opening it up while
lifting it northeast into the central High Plains by Sunday
night then shifting it slowly east as a positively tilted trough
by early Tue. By days 6 and 7 (Tue-Wed) guidance starts to diverge
on large scale features. Some chances for rain (still fairly low
pops) for late Sunday into Mon look reasonable. Whatever is left
of the weakening upper system by Tue may linger as a weak upper
level shear axis if the upper ridge builds back up to our east as
depicted by the ECMWF. In any case, a model blend dosen't yield
much in the way of rain chances at this time for Tue-Wed.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 CDT WED NOV 2 2016

For the KMCI/KMKC/KSTJ/KIXD tafs: A sfc front that extends from
southern IA into far nw MO and ne KS. A wave of low pressure
along the front will move through nw MO (taf sites) early in the
taf period with winds gradually shifting the north toward 00z.
Some showers/a few thunderstorms will occur until the passage of
the sfc low and cold frontal passage. A period of mvfr or possibly
ifr ceilings will occur in the cooler air behind the front before
clearing occurs from the northwest between 09z-12z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Short Term...DSA (SGF)
Long Term...DSA (SGF)
Aviation...DSA (SGF)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
453 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
453 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.