Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1057 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.Update...
Issued at 945 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

Trend in the HRRR which is finally coming around to reality is to
slow down the development of convection and potential MCS into the
CWA. Radar and 00z NAM support this as convection has sputtered
along the cold front from south central NE into central KS despite
the presence of a 40-45kt h8 jet as noted in the latest VWPs. 00z TOP
sounding says it all...airmass is capped east of the cold front. Am
watching the large outflow boundary now dropping south across east
central NE/west central IA as new convection should form north of
this boundary. Still anticipate convection to form and increase in
coverage over the northern CWA. It'll just take longer to get hear.
Good chance the convection will decrease in coverage and intensity
south of the I-70 corridor.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 242 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

A warm and moist airmass remains in place across the forecast area
this afternoon, with dewpoints well into the 70s. A cold front was
moving through central Nebraska into northwest Kansas, and this
feature will begin to slow this evening as it approaches southeast
Nebraska into central Iowa as the upper support lifts northward and
the flow becomes parallel with the boundary. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along this boundary late this afternoon into the
evening hours upstream of the forecast area. This activity will
consolidate into one or more clusters of linear storm segments this
evening into the overnight hours as it approaches/moves into the
area. While instability will decrease overnight and with southeast
extent, a few strong to severe storms will be possible in northwest
Missouri, with the primary threat of straight-line winds.
Additionally, the most robust storms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall, so areas with any repeat convection may see a
localized flooding threat.

Thunderstorms will be weakening as they move across the remainder of
the forecast area around/after sunrise Tuesday. There remains some
uncertainty to the coverage of precipitation and cloud cover in the
wake of the morning convection, and this may alter high temperatures
and the intensity of another round of thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening. The current thought is convection will
redevelop along/near the stationary surface front in southern Iowa
into northwest Missouri Tuesday afternoon. This activity will
gradually consolidate and shift south and east through a good
portion of the forecast area Tuesday evening into the overnight
hours. Again, depending on the available instability, some storms
may be strong to severe, especially within the first 3-6 hours of
initiation.

Models are currently in decent agreement in a break of convection
Wednesday morning into the early afternoon, and likewise develop a
strongly unstable airmass ahead of the quasi-stationary front.
Another round of thunderstorms are expected to develop once again,
this time with the boundary drifting slowly southward. With stronger
low-level forcing, sufficient deep layer shear, and an unstable
atmosphere, severe thunderstorms will be a possibility with storms
that develop during the afternoon and evening hours. The exact
evolution remains still too uncertain with several details yet to be
resolved. Thursday into the weekend features continued chances for
periods of thunderstorms. Outside of the severe weather threat,
flooding concerns will commence for areas with repeated convection
during the multi-day event. The greatest rainfall totals are
expected to be located across the northern third of Missouri,
generally along and north of Interstate 70.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

Thunderstorm complex over east central NE/west central IA is expected
to sag south and into northern MO overnight. MVFR ceilings expected
with the stronger cells. Activity will likely continue south towards
the KC terminals during the pre-dawn hours and decrease in coverage
and intensity. Some concern that new convection forming along the KS
portion of the cold front could track east and into east central
KS/west central MO towards sunrise. Models having a difficult and
slow time adapting to current convective trends. Difficult to gauge
where any of the outflow boundaries will end up as they will likely
dictate where new convection forms later Tuesday afternoon and
evening so best to broadbrush with VCTS and VFR
ceilings/visibilities.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Update...MJ
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
407 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-120915-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
407 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR
 NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT
 APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND
 LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
 ACTIVITY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS AN UNSETTLED
 WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. STRONG TO SEVERE
 STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LARGE HAIL
 AND STRONG WINDS REMAINING THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
 RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS A
 FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1210 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

MOZ001>005-120545-
HARRISON MO-WORTH MO-GENTRY MO-NODAWAY MO-ATCHISON MO-
1210 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON...NORTHERN HARRISON...
NORTHWESTERN GENTRY...WORTH AND NORTHERN NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1245
AM CDT...

AT 1209 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAMONI
TO NEAR BRADDYVILLE TO SYRACUSE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARYVILLE...TARKIO...ROCK PORT...GRANT CITY...FAIRFAX...
BURLINGTON JUNCTION...HOPKINS...RAVENWOOD...EAGLEVILLE...IRENA...
ROCKPORT...SHERIDAN...BLYTHEDALE...PARNELL...CLEARMONT...ELMO...
PICKERING...BRADDYVILLE...WESTBORO AND BROWNVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 103 AND 114.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 106 AND 123.

LAT...LON 4058 9389 4043 9383 4031 9503 4035 9563
      4041 9566 4046 9564 4047 9570 4054 9565
      4056 9568 4052 9571 4052 9575 4058 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0509Z 349DEG 24KT 4070 9404 4061 9510 4068 9619

32