Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
402 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 401 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

Short Term (Today through Wednesday night):

MCS over northern Missouri this morning and another over eastern
Kansas are about to merge together as they continue to push sewd.
These storms are being fueled by a swly 40-50kt LLJ. This LLJ is
expected to weaken this morning however storms will continue to move
across the CWA and weaken through the morning hours as it does. This
will leave residual cloud cover across the area this morning as
well. The cold front which sparked the convection last night is
still well to the west across eastern NE extending swwd into central
Kansas. This will leave the area in a very moist environment today
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Convection during the
afternoon will be contingent on any overflow boundaries left over
from this morning's convection and increased instability in the
afternoon if the sun does emerge. Both the NAM and GFS depict 2500-
3000J/kg of MUCAPE which would aid in the potential for severe
storms with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. However,
the better threat may come this evening when the LLJ strengthens
again and noses into the area. Another MCS is expected to develop
over the area. Severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will
again be possible. Also, another round of heavy rain will be
possible with PWAT values hovering right around 2". Tomorrow morning
the LLJ again veers and weakens and thunderstorms should again
diminish. During the afternoon on Wednesday a shortwave trough will
move through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will
finally force the aforementioned cold front towards the area
Wednesday afternoon. Storms are expected to develop across the Upper
Midwest during the afternoon however the local area should remain
capped for the bulk of the day Wednesday. It is not until that
enough convergence along the cold front and the upper shortwave
impinges on the local area that storms will develop locally. Extreme
instability coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70s will allow for
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wings. Heavy rain
will again be a concern with PWATs between 1.75"-2". Late
afternoon/evening storms may be maintain or enhanced but yet another
nocturnal LLJ which will again be nosing into the local area
Wednesday night.

Long Range (Thursday through Monday):

The long range continues to look unsettled as the upper level flow
becomes quasi-zonal across the region. Models analyzes the cold
front across the southern CWA by Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms
will again be possible along this front with afternoon instability
and again Thursday night as again the LLJ reintensifies. Storms may
however may develop south of the area depending on how much push to
the south the front makes. Additional rounds of storms will be
possible for Friday and Saturday night as several shortwaves
traverse the area on zonal flow. By Sunday, the cold front will
return back through the area as a warm front as upper level ridging
builds into the area. This should allow for hot conditions to return
to the area late this weekend into the beginning of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

Thunderstorm complex over east central NE/west central IA is expected
to sag south and into northern MO overnight. MVFR ceilings expected
with the stronger cells. Activity will likely continue south towards
the KC terminals during the pre-dawn hours and decrease in coverage
and intensity. Some concern that new convection forming along the KS
portion of the cold front could track east and into east central
KS/west central MO towards sunrise. Models having a difficult and
slow time adapting to current convective trends. Difficult to gauge
where any of the outflow boundaries will end up as they will likely
dictate where new convection forms later Tuesday afternoon and
evening so best to broadbrush with VCTS and VFR
ceilings/visibilities.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
254 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

KSZ025-MOZ013-014-020>023-028>031-120845-
ATCHISON KS-LIVINGSTON MO-BUCHANAN MO-RAY MO-CALDWELL MO-CLAY MO-
CLINTON MO-DE KALB MO-CARROLL MO-PLATTE MO-DAVIESS MO-
254 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ATCHISON...
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...CLINTON...SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...
SOUTHWESTERN DAVIESS...RAY...PLATTE...CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
DEKALB...CLAY AND SOUTHERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

AT 253 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
WINDS ASSOCAITED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
HAMILTON TO NEAR GOWER TO NEAR RUSHVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KANSAS CITY...LEAVENWORTH...LIBERTY...GLADSTONE...EXCELSIOR
SPRINGS...
ATCHISON...CAMERON...SMITHVILLE...KEARNEY...RICHMOND...PLATTE CITY...
CARROLLTON...LAWSON...PLATTSBURG...LATHROP...HAMILTON...WEATHERBY
LAKE...
WESTON...GOWER AND BRAYMER.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 15 AND 57.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 7 AND 41.
 INTERSTATE 435 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 49.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9519 3965 9512 3962 9510 3962 9506
      3966 9504 3970 9457 3987 9394 3938 9329
      3923 9402 3923 9475 3936 9489 3939 9489
      3939 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0753Z 314DEG 45KT 3973 9397 3962 9452 3962 9507

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
350 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. JOSEPH              39.77N 94.85W
07/12/2016                   BUCHANAN           MO   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN ST. JOSEPH

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
401 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LIBERTY                 39.25N 94.42W
07/12/2016                   CLAY               MO   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS ROADWAY ON LIBERTY DRIVE NEAR
            FAIRVIEW

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     TSTM WND GST     LIBERTY                 39.25N 94.42W
07/12/2016  M53 MPH          CLAY               MO   AWOS

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
441 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W INDEPENDENCE        39.09N 94.47W
07/12/2016                   JACKSON            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE ON A HOUSE ON SOUTH HOME AVE.

&&

SMELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
441 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

KSZ025-103-MOZ020-028-121015-
ATCHISON KS-LEAVENWORTH KS-BUCHANAN MO-PLATTE MO-
441 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LEAVENWORTH...
CENTRAL ATCHISON...NORTHWESTERN PLATTE AND SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 441 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LANCASTER...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATCHISON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEAVENWORTH...LANSING...ATCHISON...WESTON...RUSHVILLE...LANCASTER...
EASTON...LEWIS AND CLARK VILLAGE...DE KALB...FARMINGTON...IATAN...
STILLINGS...FAUCETT...LEWIS AND CLARK VI...POTTER...
FORT LEAVENWORTH...LOWEMONT...CUMMINGS...BEVERLY AND BEAN LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9533 3964 9511 3963 9510 3962 9510
      3962 9506 3964 9505 3964 9474 3924 9491
      3934 9518 3942 9518 3942 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 0941Z 286DEG 40KT 3951 9526

32