Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

Frontal boundary sagging south into the forecast area this afternoon
and evening should provide the focus for scattered thunderstorm
activity especially across northern Missouri. Although shear is weak
sufficient instability in place for a few severe thunderstorms
although coverage should be limited.

Frontal boundary forecast to slow and stall near I70 overnight.
Focus of LLJ will be mainly west of forecast area overnight, however
with boundary extending across the region threat for storms will
linger across northern Missouri for much of the night. Tomorrow
morning the boundary begins to lift northeast as a warm front which
should bring threat for convection gradually to an end during the day
on Tuesday. Depending on progression of boundary on Tuesday afternoon
there is a chance that thunderstorms could redevelop over far north
central and northeast Missouri tomorrow.

Otherwise upper ridging builds back into the area Tuesday afternoon
and especially into the day on Wednesday. Wednesday should be the
hottest day of the week as H8 temperatures >= +24C nose into
northwest Missouri. Looks like a decent chance that heat index
values will approach advisory levels on Wednesday particularly over
the western part of the forecast area, so will need to see how
convection over the next 24-36 hours plays out and then re-evaluate.

Another upper level system moves across the northern Plains on
Thursday dragging a surface cold front into the region. As a result a
bit cooler conditions along with scattered thunderstorms can be
expected for the end of the work week. Into the weekend a stronger
upper level storm system will move through the northern Plains once
again flatting the upper ridge somewhat and providing the threat for
scattered convection. Temperatures this weekend should remain above
normal for this time of year but not excessively hot.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

Areas of storms pushing through KSTJ will depart the terminal within
the next hour, and should stay east of all KC area terminals as they
push south southeastward this evening. Opted not to mention even VCTS
at KMCI/KMKC/KIXD for that reason; however, the frontal boundary the
storms are associated with may drift near KC later this evening and
make winds a bit variable for a few hours before returning to the
south southeast. Areas of storms may redevelop after 09z tonight and
could have a better propagation into the KC area, but due to the
limited probability of these storms developing and making it south,
have stuck with VCTS for now during the window that storms would be
most probable if they do occur. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Mitchell
Aviation...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
504 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
504 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

MOZ007-008-017-202345-
PUTNAM MO-ADAIR MO-SCHUYLER MO-
602 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCHUYLER...SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM
AND EASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 602 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
QUEEN CITY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LANCASTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIRKSVILLE...LANCASTER...QUEEN CITY...GREENTOP...BRASHEAR...
GLENWOOD...GIBBS...WORTHINGTON AND LIVONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4038 9235 4023 9235 4022 9234 4004 9235
      4004 9243 4043 9286 4059 9260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 321DEG 42KT 4040 9264

MELL

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