Areal Flood Warning 10, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 419 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

Well, at least some folks in the region are getting rain. Monday
afternoon a cold front settled in across northern Missouri, which in
the heat of the day was responsible for sparking thunderstorms
across northern Missouri. This initial afternoon activity ramped
down around sunset, but the onset of the nocturnal jet help
reinvigorate storms during the late night hours. Additionally, the
nocturnal jet has kept storms developing along an elevated boundary
arching from east central Nebraska into northwest and north central
Missouri. The persistent isentropic assent across this boundary has
kept storms percolating well into the early morning hours, with
individual storms moving southeast as they develop. This has already
resulted in some areas of northern Missouri getting raked by
multiple storms, causing some local flooding issues.

For the rest of Today...morning convection will persist across north
central and northeast Missouri though sunrise with the help of the
nocturnal jet. As such, it's expected that the what storms are
ongoing at sunrise will start to dissipate as the nocturnal jet
mixes out in the heat of the morning. This should focus any
remaining activity across far northeast Missouri and parts of Iowa
farther north and east late this morning and into the afternoon
hours. As such, the risk of further severe storms looks rather low
after this early morning activity moves out. Otherwise, with the
frontal boundary lifting back to the north as a warm front, expect
temperatures to be rather hot again, though the cloud cover and
lingering convection should take the edge off the heat across north
central through northeast Missouri, leaving highs up there in the
80s. Farther south and west, read along and south of the Missouri
River, temperatures will likely range through the low to mid 90s
with heat indices bubbling up around 100 degrees.

Wednesday continue to look like the hottest day of the week. Models
all point at shortwave trough moving through the prevailing
westerlies to our north today through Wednesday. As such the thermal
ridge axis will get bent over across eastern Kansas and Missouri,
spreading 850mb temperatures in the mid-20 centigrade across the
region. Abundant sunshine, southerly winds, and a bit of extra
heating ahead of the weak cold front that the northern Plains trough
is dragging with it, should all help to send afternoon highs well
into mid to upper 90s. Add in the moisture from our recent rain, and
expected heat indices for Wednesday will range around 105 to 110
degrees.

Wednesday night on through the weekend...will see more unsettled
weather prevailing. After the blast furnace of a day Wednesday, a
weak cold front is expected to settle into northern Missouri, much
like Monday's settling front -though timing is slightly different-.
This will give us a chance for storms again Thursday night into
Friday. While storms will once again likely be rather scattered in
nature, the general trend will take the edge of the heat from
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the low 90s and upper 80s
for the tail end of the work week and into the weekend.
Additionally, expect another northern Plains shortwave trough, this
one a bit bigger and more robust, to move across the Plains dragging
yet another storm inducing front across eastern Kansas and Missouri
this weekend keeping the hope of rain alive for those that haven't
seen much lately.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

For the KC terminals, it should be a boring 24 hours in the TAFs as
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the day and overnight
hours as thunderstorms across northern Missouri are expected to stay
up across northern Missouri. However, have included VCTS for KSTJ
given its vicinity to the axis of the storms. Otherwise, expect
surface winds to generally prevail from the south once any
interfering surface boundary from the thunderstorms wash out this
morning. Winds tonight might start coming up as a strong low level
jet works in across western Missouri tonight, which might also result
in some low level wind shear overnight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
602 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
 MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
415 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W GALLATIN            39.91N 93.98W
06/21/2016  M5.00 INCH       DAVIESS            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED 5 INCHES IN RAIN GAUGE

&&

SBLAIR