Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1051 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

Frontal boundary sagging south into the forecast area this afternoon
and evening should provide the focus for scattered thunderstorm
activity especially across northern Missouri. Although shear is weak
sufficient instability in place for a few severe thunderstorms
although coverage should be limited.

Frontal boundary forecast to slow and stall near I70 overnight.
Focus of LLJ will be mainly west of forecast area overnight, however
with boundary extending across the region threat for storms will
linger across northern Missouri for much of the night. Tomorrow
morning the boundary begins to lift northeast as a warm front which
should bring threat for convection gradually to an end during the day
on Tuesday. Depending on progression of boundary on Tuesday afternoon
there is a chance that thunderstorms could redevelop over far north
central and northeast Missouri tomorrow.

Otherwise upper ridging builds back into the area Tuesday afternoon
and especially into the day on Wednesday. Wednesday should be the
hottest day of the week as H8 temperatures >= +24C nose into
northwest Missouri. Looks like a decent chance that heat index
values will approach advisory levels on Wednesday particularly over
the western part of the forecast area, so will need to see how
convection over the next 24-36 hours plays out and then re-evaluate.

Another upper level system moves across the northern Plains on
Thursday dragging a surface cold front into the region. As a result a
bit cooler conditions along with scattered thunderstorms can be
expected for the end of the work week. Into the weekend a stronger
upper level storm system will move through the northern Plains once
again flatting the upper ridge somewhat and providing the threat for
scattered convection. Temperatures this weekend should remain above
normal for this time of year but not excessively hot.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although
there are still some indications that a few isolated thunderstorms
could develop across southeast NE late tonight and build southward
into all TAF sites after 09z. Will continue to use VCTS to show the
potential, but overall low probability of these storms impacting any
one of the TAF sites. Winds will be variable in direction in the wake
of this evening's frontal passage, but should eventually return to
southeast and then south during the morning hours.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Mitchell
Aviation...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
504 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
504 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1205 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 PM     HAIL             1 W KEARNEY             39.37N 94.38W
06/20/2016  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

JBARHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     HAIL             MISSOURI CITY           39.24N 94.29W
06/21/2016  E1.50 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JWELSH

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