Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Showers and thunderstorms have developed early this morning across
northwestern Missouri back into east central Kansas in an area of
isentropic ascent on the 300K surface. These storms may persist
through mid-morning before isentropic ascent diminishes. Late this
morning through early afternoon, a few showers may linger along a
cold front slowly sinking into the area but most areas will
experience dry conditions. There will be quite the dichotomy of
temperatures across the CWA with the northwest only reaching the low
70s behind the front but the south reaching the mid 80s ahead of the
front. CAPE will increase to 1500-2000J/kg across the southern CWA
this afternoon. A few shortwave perturbations may be enough to
initiate thunderstorms along the front. Severe potential looks low
with the shear being the limiting factor however with the moderate
instability it is not out of the question to get multicell storms
with strong updrafts capable of producing small storms and locally
gusty winds. Instability should diminish after sunset however, much
like this morning isentropic ascent will again allow convection to
blossom across the area mainly after midnight tonight. These storms
will continue into Wednesday morning across the southern CWA before
the diminishing. The remainder of Wednesday will remain dry with
temperatures in the 70s across the forecast area. However, dry
conditions will be short-lived as during the day Wednesday a upper
level trough with a closed low will move from the Great Basin and
reach the northern High Plains by Wednesday night. This will force a
cold front into the western Plains. Thunderstorms will develop
Wednesday afternoon well west of the area. However, as storms move
across Kansas Wednesday night, they will be enhanced by a southerly
LLJ and will be able to sustain themselves long enough to move into
the CWA will after midnight Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday night continues to look wet with several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely. The aforementioned upper
trough will only move from eastern Montana into central North Dakota
from Thursday morning to Friday. This will leave the surface front
across the Plains states through the period with several lead
impulses most likely serving as the catalyst for convection. Later
in the day Friday the upper level trough beings to open up allowing
the upper flow to become more progressive. This will allow the upper
trough to quickly shift eastward late in the day Friday/Friday night
forcing the cold front through the CWA and allowing for one last
round of storms. These storms will exiting the area by saturday
morning as the upper trough moves through the Upper Midwest. The
remainder of the weekend looks dry with temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s behind the front. Storm chances may increase as we move
into the beginning of next week as mid-range models are consistent
in depicting a upper level trough moving into the southern Plains on
Monday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are movg north and west of the terminals
this morning. STJ may experience a few light showers this morning
otrw...storms should remain north and west of the terminals.
However...storms are expected to develop along a cold front this
afternoon...these storms may affect the terminals with the best
potential being btn 20Z-00Z. Behind the cold front around 20Z cigs
are expected to drop into MVFR and then drop into IFR this evening
around 00Z. Tonight...light fog may also become an issue reducing
vsbys to 4-5SM

A cold front has moved through STJ this morning and veered winds to
the north. The rest of the terminals will experience a wind shift
from the SW to the north early this afternoon. Winds will then remain
light out of the N this evening before contg to veer to the northeast
tonight around 5kts.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
502 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-141015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
502 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A
SHORT BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AROUND MIDDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 THERE WILL BE DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT STORMS
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO