Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Kansas City, MO

003 
WGUS73 KEAX 140139
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
839 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

KSC005-043-MOC003-021-087-140146-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160914T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DONIPHAN KS-ATCHISON KS-ANDREW MO-BUCHANAN MO-HOLT MO-
839 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DONIPHAN...NORTHEASTERN ATCHISON...
SOUTHERN ANDREW...NORTHERN BUCHANAN AND SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED THOUGH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO 1 TO 1.5
INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
WILL REPLACE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY
REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3992 9534 4003 9460 3971 9460 3961 9506
      3965 9534

$$

WELSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
337 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Areas of moderate to heavy rain have lingered across the area
through the morning and afternoon generally in response to a surface
boundary that is currently located across southern Nebraska and
northern Missouri. Some weak, but steady isentropic upglide over the
surface boundary has helped keep showers and thunderstorms going
through the afternoon hours, and ultimately into the evening hours.
By the overnight hours isentropic ascent, mainly along the 295K
through 305K Theta E surfaces will contribute to more rain across
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Instability across
areas south of ongoing convection has increased through the day to
reach around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Effective bulk shear has
approached 30 to 40 kts. So while widespread severe weather is not
expected at this time, there could be a strong storm or two,
especially where the better environment exists south of the ongoing
convection. Areas generally along and north of I-70 would be the
areas most likely to see overnight showers, however areas along and
south of I-70 may not be completely shut out from overnight rain. By
Wednesday mid morning to early afternoon a surface ridge will pass
well to the north of the area, but its southern periphery will nose
into central Missouri, which will effectively cut off precipitation
chances through the second half of Wednesday.

Once the surface ridge moves east of the area on Thursday, southerly
return flow will bring warm/moist air back into western and central
Missouri, along with eastern Kansas. As the warm front lifts north,
putting the area in the warm/moist sector southwest flow aloft
associated with a shortwave trough will provide ascent, which will
ultimately lead to periods of rain across the area through Friday
night. Another surface ridge will nose into the area for Saturday,
which will relegate most of the precipitation into southern
Missouri, perhaps as far north as I-70. Otherwise, areas along and
north of I-70 should see a pleasant weekend, with dry conditions.

By early next week the pattern looks to reset again, with southerly
warm/moist surface flow behind the departing surface ridge, and
southwesterly flow aloft. Expect more of a wet pattern through at
least the middle part of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Steady rain at KMCI and KSTJ should wind down over the next hour or
two, with off and on showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon.
Next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms is later tonight
through the early to mid morning hours on Wednesday.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
502 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-141015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
502 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A
SHORT BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AROUND MIDDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 THERE WILL BE DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT STORMS
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
223 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E MCLOUTH             39.20N 95.13W
09/13/2016  M3.74 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
228 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     HEAVY RAIN       JARBALO                 39.20N 95.07W
09/13/2016  M4.57 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STORM TOTAL TODAY.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NE LANSING              39.25N 94.90W
09/13/2016                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER K-5 HIGHWAY IN NORTHEAST LANSING. BARRACADES
            REQUESTED TO CLOSE ROAD.

&&

SBLAIR