Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
304 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

It is still rather stable for areas to the east of the Laramie
Range.  The SPC mesoanalysis shows quite a bit of CIN (100-150 J/kg)
across Laramie county and extending eastward into the southern
Panhandle.  The svr storm threat this aftn/evening is looking more
and more uncertain as the strong outflow from this mornings
convective complex have stabilized things quite a bit. Cumulus is
father flat on visible imagery. Latest runs the RAP have backed
off on instability along the Colorado Border and HRRR shows only
isolated convection over Laramie county by 00z. Deep layer shear
of around 50 kts is more than sufficient to get rotating updrafts
should convective initiation occur in areas near the southern
Laramie Range. Being less confident about the svr storm potential,
went ahead and removed large hail and damaging winds from the
grids and reduced pops overall through the evening. Light
southerly winds may cause areas of fog to develop by late tonight
in areas along Interstate 80.

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through Saturday across
the region as the midlvl ridge center is located near northern
Arizona. Southeasterly winds across the plains will keep llvl
moisture high. Cannot rule out a strong to svr storm during the
aftn/evening with good bulk shear and instability. Better warming
will promote higher CAPE values on Saturday with the GFS showing
2000 J/kg over the Nebraska Panhandle. Overall storm coverage will
remain mostly isolated however through the weekend. The warmest
day will be Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Broad area of high pressure will slowly propagate east towards the
southern plains from the four corners through the period. This
will keep the main storm track and more organized precipitation
chances north of the area. As the high shifts east, mid/upper-
level flow will ever so gradually turn southwesterly which will
allow monsoonal moisture to begin to advect back towards the area
by the middle of next week, especially in the higher elevations.
Medium range guidance hints at another weak frontal passage
sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, which when combined
with increases in monsoonal moisture, should produce increases in
convective chances. Steering flow will remain fairly weak for the
first half of the period, which would limit convective strength.
These begin to increase towards the middle of the week, which may
add to afternoon thunderstorm organization and strength. Monday-
Tuesday will be the warmest days next week as afternoon highs
climb into the upper 80s and 90s across lower elevations. Minor
cooling is expected behind the cold front Wednesday-Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Initial thunderstorm complex that passed through western Nebraska
Panhandle sites has cleared the area. Cloud cover has been quick
to dissipate north of the North Platte River Valley...less so to
the south. Still think that the main concern to aviation ops will
be the expected redevelopment of thunderstorm activity later this
afternoon. Thunderstorm development and location will be heavily
dependent upon how quickly clouds break-up in the vicinity of the
higher elevations along with lingering outflow boundaries from the
morning convection. Confidence is not high enough to include
anything more than VCTS at this time. After thunderstorm threat
diminishes around 03z...will see low cigs/fog develop again late
tonight at KCYS...KSNY...KBFF...and KLAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

No fire weather concerns through the weekend.  Minimum relative
humidity values will fall to 15-20 percent each afternoon across
Carbon county.  However, wind gusts will stay mostly below 20 mph.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible most days,
mainly to the east of the Laramie Range.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
233 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-116>119-
292045-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
233 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

WYZ104-105-109>115-292045-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
233 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
353 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

WYZ105-106-115-116-282215-
SHIRLEY BASIN WY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY WY-
LARAMIE VALLEY WY-
353 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ALBANY COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

AT 352 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WHEATLAND RESERVOIR 3...OR 34 MILES NORTH OF LARAMIE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHEATLAND RESERVOIR 3.

LAT...LON 4178 10589 4192 10576 4176 10529 4153 10551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 303DEG 25KT 4180 10573

MAZUR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
443 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             3 S VEDAUWOO            41.11N 105.40W
07/28/2016  E0.75 INCH       ALBANY             WY   PUBLIC

&&

RCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
447 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             23 W CHEYENNE           41.14N 105.23W
07/28/2016  E0.50 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CURT GOWDY STATE PARK REPORTED HAIL PEA TO MARBLE.

&&

DDEAL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>