Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1128 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Convection is starting to deepen over the Laramie Range and vicinity
this afternoon as expected, with cu starting to bubble over the Pine
Ridge and even the Cheyenne Ridge as well. Convective inhibition is
steadily waning, so expect convection to expand in coverage through
the evening as previously mentioned in the earlier update.

For tonight, a rather potent vort max will ride over the forecast
area in continued northwest flow aloft. This will combine with a
weak llvl jet and forcing along the H7 front to maintain showers and
storms overnight, especially across the northern tier of counties.
Down south across the Cheyenne Ridge, stratus may develop in moist
upslope flow. For Thursday, models continue to show a favorable
setup for severe weather across the high plains. A sfc trough,
perhaps remnant outflow boundary from tonight's convection, could
provide additional forcing in addition to the stalled boundary along
the Laramie Range. Made only slight adjustments to PoPs and weather
from the previous shift's forecast as it was in good shape for what
models continue to depict for tomorrow. All modes of severe weather
are possible, even a couple tornadoes along the sfc/outflow boundary
if it pans out.

Friday should see a more isolated coverage of convection within a
weaker overall flow pattern. Upper level energy with persistent but
weaker upslope flow should spark off afternoon showers and storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Heights aloft will rise over the weekend across the region for a
drying/warming trend.  There will still be quite a bit of llvl
moisture and instability across the Panhandle to the east of the sfc
trough, however the warmer air aloft/capping will limit tstm
coverage. Highs will be back up into the mid 80s to mid 90s over
lower elevations.  Weak shortwave will move across Montana on
Monday, with a fropa during the morning.  Best chances of storms
early next week will south of the area across Colorado.  No
significant monsoonal moisture incursion is expected through Tuesday
with the midlvl subtropical ridge center located near the Four
Corners region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1121 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Cluster of SHRA/TSRA moving southeast across the southern Nebraska
panhandle will impact the Sidney terminal through 07Z. Scattered
SHRA/TSRA moving east-southeast across northeast Wyoming should
remain north of Chadron terminal late tonight. Patchy mifg across
the plains by daybreak Thursday, but to limited for mention in
TAFs. Expect a return of scattered TSRA after 20Z Thursday with
VCTS except Rawlins. Potential for hail, strong winds and MVFR to
IFR visibility in heavy rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Breezy and dry conditions will prevail across the high country this
afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing in moist,
easterly upslope flow across the plains. Look for showers and storms
to occur through tonight. There remains a good chance for a more
scattered coverage of thunderstorms with wetting rains east of the
Laramie Range Thursday, with  isolated showers and thunderstorms
Friday and on through the weekend.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-116>119-
281730-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I25 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

WYZ104-105-109>115-281730-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1024 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     HAIL             HAWK SPRINGS            41.79N 104.27W
07/27/2016  E1.75 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   PUBLIC

&&

DDEAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1024 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

NEZ019-WYZ108-280515-
SCOTTS BLUFF NE-GOSHEN COUNTY WY-
1024 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCOTTS BLUFF AND
SOUTHEASTERN GOSHEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM MDT...

AT 1024 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MINATARE...OR 8 MILES EAST OF SCOTTSBLUFF...MOVING SOUTH AT 35
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YODER AND HAWK SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4189 10437 4197 10418 4178 10405 4169 10430
TIME...MOT...LOC 0424Z 340DEG 30KT 4187 10350

COX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1033 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 PM     HAIL             6 E LA GRANGE           41.64N 104.05W
07/27/2016  E1.50 INCH       BANNER             NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1035 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             MINATARE                41.81N 103.50W
07/27/2016  E1.75 INCH       SCOTTS BLUFF       NE   PUBLIC

&&

DDEAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1113 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

NEZ021-055-280600-
MORRILL NE-CHEYENNE NE-
1113 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MORRILL COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT...

AT 1113 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR REDINGTON...OR 28 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIMBALL...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
CHEYENNE AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRILL COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 4157 10336 4161 10322 4130 10303 4125 10331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 336DEG 26KT 4155 10329

COX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
154 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

WYZ101-102-280900-
NIOBRARA COUNTY WY-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS WY-
154 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CONVERSE AND WEST
CENTRAL NIOBRARA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM MDT...

AT 154 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF BILL...OR 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WRIGHT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
CONVERSE AND WEST CENTRAL NIOBRARA COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4327 10529 4343 10517 4327 10463 4300 10488
TIME...MOT...LOC 0754Z 301DEG 21KT 4331 10513

JAMSKI