Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
537 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Convection is starting to deepen over the Laramie Range and vicinity
this afternoon as expected, with cu starting to bubble over the Pine
Ridge and even the Cheyenne Ridge as well. Convective inhibition is
steadily waning, so expect convection to expand in coverage through
the evening as previously mentioned in the earlier update.

For tonight, a rather potent vort max will ride over the forecast
area in continued northwest flow aloft. This will combine with a
weak llvl jet and forcing along the H7 front to maintain showers and
storms overnight, especially across the northern tier of counties.
Down south across the Cheyenne Ridge, stratus may develop in moist
upslope flow. For Thursday, models continue to show a favorable
setup for severe weather across the high plains. A sfc trough,
perhaps remnant outflow boundary from tonight's convection, could
provide additional forcing in addition to the stalled boundary along
the Laramie Range. Made only slight adjustments to PoPs and weather
from the previous shift's forecast as it was in good shape for what
models continue to depict for tomorrow. All modes of severe weather
are possible, even a couple tornadoes along the sfc/outflow boundary
if it pans out.

Friday should see a more isolated coverage of convection within a
weaker overall flow pattern. Upper level energy with persistent but
weaker upslope flow should spark off afternoon showers and storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Heights aloft will rise over the weekend across the region for a
drying/warming trend.  There will still be quite a bit of llvl
moisture and instability across the Panhandle to the east of the sfc
trough, however the warmer air aloft/capping will limit tstm
coverage. Highs will be back up into the mid 80s to mid 90s over
lower elevations.  Weak shortwave will move across Montana on
Monday, with a fropa during the morning.  Best chances of storms
early next week will south of the area across Colorado.  No
significant monsoonal moisture incursion is expected through Tuesday
with the midlvl subtropical ridge center located near the Four
Corners region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The main concern this evening is how long the convection will last
tonight.

Latest radar loop was showing isolated convection mainly
southeast of kcys. However, some more storms were developing north
of Torrington. This may set the stage for more convection in the
panhandle this evening. We are more confident about the KBFF and
KSNY taf sites for now based on radar trends. We will also need
to watch the convection spreading southeast from the Black Hills.
KCYS, KLAR, and KRWL should stay in the clear through much of the
evening. Another shortwave is progged to push southeast through
southeast Wyoming later this evening and overnight and may trigger
more thunderstorms after midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Breezy and dry conditions will prevail across the high country this
afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing in moist,
easterly upslope flow across the plains. Look for showers and storms
to occur through tonight. There remains a good chance for a more
scattered coverage of thunderstorms with wetting rains east of the
Laramie Range Thursday, with  isolated showers and thunderstorms
Friday and on through the weekend.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-116>119-
281730-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I25 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

WYZ104-105-109>115-281730-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
938 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

NEZ003-096-280430-
SOUTH SIOUX NE-BOX BUTTE NE-
938 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX AND BOX BUTTE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM MDT...

AT 938 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HEMINGFORD TO 7 MILES
SOUTH OF FLAHERTYS CORNER TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE ALICE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLIANCE...HEMINGFORD...WILD HORSE BUTTE...
BEREA AND KILPATRICK LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN CHEYENNE.

&&

LAT...LON 4201 10332 4219 10393 4243 10303 4235 10275
      4209 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 291DEG 33KT 4236 10301 4221 10346 4218 10380

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
955 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HAIL             3 S LINGLE              42.10N 104.35W
07/27/2016  E1.00 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VETERAN HIGHWAY SOUTH OF LINGLE HAS 2-3 INCHES OF HAIL
            DEPTH ON ROAD. HAIL SIZE QUARTERS TO NICKELS.

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1002 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 S TORRINGTON          41.98N 104.18W
07/27/2016  E55 MPH          GOSHEN             WY   PUBLIC

            ALONG HIGHWAY 85 WIND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

DDEAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1006 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             2 S HAWK SPRINGS        41.76N 104.27W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DDEAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1024 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     HAIL             HAWK SPRINGS            41.79N 104.27W
07/27/2016  E1.75 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   PUBLIC

&&

DDEAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1024 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

NEZ019-WYZ108-280515-
SCOTTS BLUFF NE-GOSHEN COUNTY WY-
1024 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCOTTS BLUFF AND
SOUTHEASTERN GOSHEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM MDT...

AT 1024 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MINATARE...OR 8 MILES EAST OF SCOTTSBLUFF...MOVING SOUTH AT 35
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YODER AND HAWK SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4189 10437 4197 10418 4178 10405 4169 10430
TIME...MOT...LOC 0424Z 340DEG 30KT 4187 10350

COX