Lake Effect Snow Advisory 2, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
932 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE KEYSTONE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILLS DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND SERN COS WITH STRONG JET MAX
OVERHEAD SLIDING NE. LIGHT SNOW FALLING IN CENTRAL WV AND MAY BE
INTOI THE LAURELS IN ANOTHER HR/TWO. CIGS LOW THERE AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS NOT AS LOW AS THE REST OF THE AREA. THUS...THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE FOR ACCUMS IS THE SWRN QUARTER OF THE AREA...PERHAPS
UP INTO HAP VAL. WHILE S-- MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE SERN THIRD OF THE
AREA...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE A LITTLE WIDER AND CIGS
HIGHER. TEMPS ALSO JUST ABOVE FZG THERE. SO...ACCUM THERE IS
POSS...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS THE SW. OTHER TWEAKS VERY MINOR MAINLY
WITH TIMING OF NWRN/WRN SHSN/SQ FOR LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
FCST REASONING THERE PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED.

PREV...
*SIGNIFICANT/LONG-DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL FOR NORTHWEST PA
 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
*BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT
 THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...

INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR SCENT PENN...THE LOWER SUSQ...AND WRN POCONOS /MAINLY TO
THE SE OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR/. A FEW TO SVRL HOUR PERIOD
OF MDTLY STG AND DEEPENING MID-LVL UVVEL WILL OCCUR ABOVE A
RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STG
155-165KT UPPER JET LIFTS NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

LES WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES FROM 19Z
TODAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

CHILLY 850 MB AIR WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE STATE AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT JUST
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A PLUME OF FAIRLY THICK
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN EDGE OF A WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND ENTRANCE REGION OF A STG 165
KT JET AT 300 MB...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN.

MIN TEMPS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY LIKELY TO BE 5-8F MILDER
THAN NORMAL AREA-WIDE THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS AND
LLVL DOWNSLOPE FLOW HOLDING THEM TO NEAR 20F ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND AROUND 30F IN THE SOUTHEAST.

CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE...AS HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK SRN STREAM WAVE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THEN OFF THE EAST COAST.

SOME FLURRIES MAY SNEAK NORTH OF THE MD BORDER LATE SUNDAY BUT
WILL KEEP POPS NEAR ZERO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS AS ONLY A
FEW MEMBERS OF THE SREF AND THE GFS HINT AT MEAS QPF THERE. MORE
IMPORTANT IS THE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS A
WEAK LOW ZIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A 1-3 PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR EVEN STEADY...LIGHT TO MDT SNOW WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD AND ALONG WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
MDTLY STEEP /5.5-6.5 DEG C PER KM/...BUT NOT NEARLY AS EXTREME AS
THOSE WHICH CAUSED THE BLINDING SQUALLS...FLASH FREEZING...AND
EVEN A FEW INSTANCES OF THUNDER-SNOW LAST TUESDAY JAN 12TH.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL BE A
FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.

BEHIND THE TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT IS A DRASTIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
9H TEMPS EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE -20S BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD BREAK OUT OVER THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST BEFORE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHSN/SQUALLS PUSH ACROSS.
THE EVENING ARRIVAL/PASSAGE SHOULD SPELL A LESS-POTENT SQUALL TIME
THAN THE OTHER DAY. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT ONLY 5-10F BETTER
THAN MORNING TEMPS...WITH THE BEST RISES IN THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED-SCTD SHSN...AND PERHAPS A QUICK
COATING TO 0.5 INCH OF SNOW IN SOME PLACES.

A LONG-DURATION...AND WELL-ALIGNED/MDTLY STRONG WNW BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP COLD AIR AND TEMPS RIGHT WITHIN
THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER...TO
BRING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS WARREN /AND EVEN MUCH OF
MCKEAN COUNTY/ DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE WIND AND INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR...WITH TEMPS SINKING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID TEENS IN THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WILL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS 10 BELOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH
VALUES OF ZERO TO 5F ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF THE
STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG-DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL BE WINDING DOWN
TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION IMPACT LIKELY OVER THE
PERENNIAL SNOWBELT OF NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. COMMUNITIES
ACROSS WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES STAND A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING
HEAVY SNOW TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES...WITH SOME PLACES TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF WARREN RECEIVING 12 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE 36 TO
48 HOUR PERIOD.

OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AS A RESULT OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND A
NARROW/MEANDERING BAND OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BRING A FEW FLUFFY INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS
TO THE SOUTH /OVER THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE BEFORE
TRENDING MODESTLY WARMER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
OVERALL PRECIPITATION PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY DRY ONE...OUTSIDE OF THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...
MENTIONED SOME --SN RESTRICTIONS /MAINLY MVFR/ AT KJST/KAOO/KUNV
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. PERHAPS ONLY KJST GOES TO IFR FOR A
BRIEF PD.

PREV...
PERSISTENT AND SOMETIMES GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR STRATO
CU TO FORM OVER THE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES. THE LOWERING
OF THIS CIGS HAS BROUGHT IFR TP JST. EXPECT FOR THESE CIGS AT
BFD...JST...UNV AND AOO TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATE
THIS MORNING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WINDS BACK THIS AFTERNOON
A WEAK LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES W-E. HOWEVER...TRAILING
THE LOW WILL BE A SHARP ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL BLOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING/NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT OVER KBFD...BUT MOST OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN AS THEY WERE --
MVFR CENTRAL AND VFR EAST UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS AND PASSES. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE CNTRL AND ERN TERMINALS MID
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY GO VLIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AT KBFD/KJST AND L/IFR FOR
THE CENTRAL TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SET UP THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
BFD AND JST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS LAURELS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WED-THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
238 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

PAZ012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-181945-
NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
238 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004-005-181945-
WARREN-MCKEAN-
238 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ006-010-011-181945-
POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-
238 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ024-033-181945-
CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
238 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.