Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
941 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE IS BRINGING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING
WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH EAST OF THE LAKES. A
WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THIS EVENING. MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OFF LAKE ERIE...KIND OF A HYBRID BETWEEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND WARM
FRONTAL SYNOPTIC SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
DIFFUSE MULTIPLE BANDS PRIMARILY OVER THE BOSTON HILLS AND
SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINOR WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A LAKE BAND IS IN THE PROCESS OF REORIENTING
ITSELF FROM AS THE WSW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. JEFFERSON COUNTY IS THE REMAINING AREA UNDER A WARNING AND
WILL LET THAT CONTINUE AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. SNOW...UP TO 4 INCHES MAY ALSO
AFFECT FAR NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND PARTS OF LEWIS COUNTY AT
TIMES BUT WITH A LITTLE LESS INTENSITY AND SNOW AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY
PLAN ON HANDLING THIS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND OF
COURSE AN UPDATED FORECAST...WHILE EXPECTING THE BAND TO REMAIN
SHY OF ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS...PARTICULARLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE
FEET OF SNOW THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER THE PAST FOUR
DAYS.

TONIGHT'S FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BUFKIT
PROFILES SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT
DISPLACED WELL BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH CLOUD TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN -10C. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE INCLUDED
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE THEY ARE SLOWER TO WARM.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
40S IN MOST AREAS. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WARM
FRONT SHOULD END BY MID-DAY WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. AFTER
THIS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TIMING...BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS BY A FEW
HOURS ON TIMING. FOR MOST AREAS IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN...BUT THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR WET
SNOW ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES. CONSENSUS MEAN QPF IS ABOUT A QUARTER
INCH...SO ANY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP FROM
AROUND -7C SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO -12C LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUD TOPS ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS WHICH SUGGESTS POOR
MICROPHYSICS FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
WESTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES...BUT THIS
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE WITH SMALL FLAKES OR SLEET POSSIBLY
MIXED IN.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT CLOUD TOPS SHOULD SUPPORT
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES TO
BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED. BY THIS TIME WESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
VERY STRONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF SNOW. AMOUNTS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
LAKES SUCH AS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND TUG HILL. THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF
THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER/WATERTOWN METRO AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

SUNDAY A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO GENERATE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE AGAIN MINOR...WITH LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS
OF SNOWFALL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT...WITH POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAKE SHAPE. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL 500 HPA TROUGH WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A SURFACE LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A -18 TO -22C 850 HPA AIRMASS.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
AGAIN FORM LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE
VERY COLD AIR OVER THE UNFROZEN LAKES WILL CREATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LAKE INSTABILITY MONDAY WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES INCREASING
TO 500 TO 750 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO 12 TO 14K
FEET. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS TO THE LAKE
ONTARIO AND ERIE BAND...WITH CONNECTIONS AS FAR WEST AS LAKE
SUPERIOR POSSIBLE.

WHILE THE POSITION OF BANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW BANDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH
WATERTOWN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DECREASE IN THE MOISTURE DEPTH FIELD
LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WEAKEN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...THOUGH STILL FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THE GENERATION OF SOME LAKE SNOWS.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE MID 20S WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAKE SNOWS AND ASSOCIATED IFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
ARRIVE ALOFT.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TODAY SETTING OFF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LARGELY
RANGE FROM IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE LINGERING MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...DETERIORATION TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...MVFR/VFR
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL THEN
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS EVENING.

FOLLOWING THIS...QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE
THURSDAY  NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND
WAVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/ZAFF
MARINE...JJR/SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

NYZ007-151215-
JEFFERSON-
710 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-008-010>014-019>021-085-151215-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
710 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004>006-151215-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
710 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-151215-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
710 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

APFFEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1013 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             3 W WYOMING             42.83N  78.14W
01/14/2016  M13.2 INCH       WYOMING            NY   COOP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600300

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1014 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             WILLIAMSVILLE           42.97N  78.74W
01/14/2016  M7.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600301

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1015 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             6 SW WARSAW             42.68N  78.22W
01/14/2016  M8.2 INCH        WYOMING            NY   COOP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600302

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1016 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             2 S WALES               42.74N  78.51W
01/14/2016  M12.5 INCH       ERIE               NY   COOP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600303

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1040 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             ALFRED                  42.25N  77.79W
01/14/2016  M4.0 INCH        ALLEGANY           NY   COOP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600304

DK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1156 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

NYZ006>008-141830-
LEWIS-JEFFERSON-OSWEGO-
1156 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LEWIS...SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON AND EXTREME NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...

AT 1153 AM EST...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING SNOW FALL
RATES OF AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR ADAMS AND
MANNSVILLE TO BARNES CORNERS. SNOWFALL OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR
ALSO EXTENDED INLAND ACROSS COPENHAGEN TO NEAR CROGHAN. THIS BAND OF
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WHILE MEANDERING NORTH AND SOUTH BY A FEW MILES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CARTHAGE...ADAMS...BARNES CORNERS...SOUTHWICK BEACH STATE PARK AND
COPENHAGEN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 38 AND 44.

BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY. SLOW
DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN TRAVELING.

LAT...LON 4397 7520 4369 7547 4365 7615 4368 7618
      4367 7620 4366 7620 4382 7623 4382 7625
      4384 7627 4384 7630 4388 7628 4389 7622
      4386 7624 4385 7620 4387 7620 4390 7613
      4391 7612 4404 7558

HITCHCOCK