Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR REGION SOME GENERAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. WEAKER LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH EAST OF THE LAKES DURING THURSDAY...WHILE A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING OUR
AREA SOME GENERAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BEFORE USHERING IN MILDER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE HEAVIEST LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS HAVING SAFELY CLEARED CHAUTAUQUA
AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...AND THE HEAVIEST LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS
HAVING CLEARED WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...HAVE CANCELLED THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR THESE COUNTIES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR REGION SOME GENERAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE BAND OF LAKE SNOWS HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE WHILE
SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOW FEATURES SNOWFALL
RATES OF AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES OR SO PER HOUR WITHIN ITS CORE...WHICH
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY INTO THE
BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER...THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND INTO NIAGARA COUNTY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BAND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY INTENSE WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CONTINUING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE BUFFALO AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
WEAKENING FROM THERE AS THE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE SHORTENS AND THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED. WEAKER LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND WESTERN NIAGARA COUNTY THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE BUFFALO AREA AND INTO SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY
AGAIN.

ACCUMULATION-WISE...LAKE EQL LEVELS WILL STILL BE AROUND 7-8 KFT
TONIGHT...WITH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND ALSO
INTERSECTING THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION BELOW THIS LEVEL.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WARNING-WORTHY ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ADVISORY-TYPE
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTY.

MEANWHILE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE LAKE SNOWS HAVE DRIFTED INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OSWEGO COUNTY...WHERE THESE ARE ALSO LIKELY PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS
FURTHER...THESE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW
TO THESE AREAS...BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT AND SLIDING CLOSER TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER THIS...THESE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE TUG HILL AGAIN DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS
VEER MORE WESTERLY AGAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER.

WITH AN EVEN MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE /LAKE EQLS UP TO 10 KFT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE/ COMPARED TO LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF NEW
SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSING
FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL NORTHWARD. AS SUCH...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...THE PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING
A ROUND OF GENERAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE ACCUMS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER
OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT EVENING LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS ELSEWHERE...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES THEN
FOLLOWING THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER ADVECTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION.

ONCE THE LAKE SNOWS REACH AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...
THESE WILL BE ON A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALOFT...AND CONSEQUENTLY RESULTS IN A LOWERING CAP AND
LAKE EQL LEVELS FALLING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 KFT. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF THE LAKES PRIMARILY BEING ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW MORE INCHES. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE
LIFT AND MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MILDER DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH NORTHWARD...THIS
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW WITH JUST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. DEPENDING UPON THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE THERE MAY EVEN BE A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE BRIEFLY AS THE SNOW DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE LIFTS ABOVE
THE LEVEL OF MOISTURE.

FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL. LARGELY SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY
HERE...BUT AS WARMER AIR PUSHES NORTHWARD WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN. OVERALL SNOW TOTALS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE
MINOR...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY THE REGION WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY.
WITHIN THE DRY SECTOR OF THE STORM (SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT)...TEMPERATURES AT 850
HPA WARMING TO +1 TO +2C WILL BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT A PRIMARY LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH...WHILE A SECONDARY LEE SIDE LOW EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. A SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIX RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COASTLAL LOW
DEEPENS...AND MOISTURE REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE JUST
TO OUR EAST.

LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL END
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION AS SNOW SHOWERS...WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING
THE LONGEST EAST OF THE LAKES WHERE LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE PRECIPITATION WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
FREEZING...INCREASING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

SUNDAY A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO GENERATE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE AGAIN MINOR...WITH LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT...WITH POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAKE SHAPE. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
500 HPA TROUGH WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A
SURFACE LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITHIN A -18 TO -22C 850 HPA AIRMASS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY AGAIN FORM LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE VERY COLD AIR OVER THE UNFROZEN LAKES
WILL CREATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LAKE INSTABILITY MONDAY WITH LAKE
INDUCED CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500 TO 750 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS RISING TO 12 TO 14K FEET. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE UPSTREAM
CONNECTIONS TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE BAND...WITH CONNECTIONS AS
FAR WEST AS LAKE SUPERIOR POSSIBLE.

WHILE THE POSITION OF BANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW BANDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH
WATERTOWN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DECREASE IN THE MOISTURE DEPTH FIELD
LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WEAKEN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...THOUGH STILL FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THE GENERATION OF SOME LAKE SNOWS.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE MID 20S WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MIGRATING TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WHERE THEY SHOULD THEN REMAIN THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...WINDS WILL VEER AGAIN
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
SEND THE LAKE SNOWS BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW
BELTS EAST OF THE LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THESE IMPACTING THE KBUF/KIAG/KART TERMINALS
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/MVFR TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH OUR
REGION ALONG WITH SOME GENERAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...THE LAKE SNOWS/ATTENDANT IFR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/BECOME
MORE LOCALIZED EAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE DAY AS THE LARGER-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. DURING THE AFTERNOON A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THIS SHOULD
SET OFF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ASIDE FROM THE
ABOVE...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LARGELY RANGE FROM IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...DETERIORATION TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...MVFR/VFR
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ON THURSDAY.

FOLLOWING THIS...QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ010.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ001.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ012-
     085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

NYZ007-008-142100-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-142100-
NIAGARA-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ002-013-014-021-142100-
ORLEANS-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-142100-
NORTHERN ERIE-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ011-142100-
GENESEE-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-142100-
WYOMING-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-142100-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-142100-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-142100-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>005-142100-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WITH
POSSIBLE MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-142100-
OSWEGO-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WITH
POSSIBLE MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-142100-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WITH
POSSIBLE MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ085-142100-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
351 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WITH
POSSIBLE MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

THOMAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
450 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     SNOW             ANGOLA ON THE LAKE      42.65N  79.05W
01/13/2016  M6.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            2.0 INCHES PER HOUR

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600251

SJW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
516 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

NYZ001-010-132345-
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-
516 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN GENESEE...
NORTHEASTERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN NIAGARA COUNTIES...

AT 512 PM EST...THE LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PRODUCING SNOW FALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WAS MOVING INTO
THE CITY OF BUFFALO AND THE BUFFALO AIRPORT...EXTENDING THROUGH
AKRON.

THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO...CHEEKTOWAGA...WEST SENECA...NORTH TONAWANDA...CLARENCE...
LACKAWANNA...KENMORE...DEPEW...AMHERST AND TONAWANDA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN EXITS 56 AND 49.

VISIBILITIES WILL DROP QUICKLY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN THIS BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW OR ICE COVERED ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA
TIME WHEN TRAVELING.

LAT...LON 4308 7900 4307 7892 4301 7891 4302 7890
      4311 7885 4317 7848 4290 7846 4278 7885
      4282 7887 4284 7886 4296 7894 4300 7902

WELCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
625 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     SNOW             ELMA                    42.81N  78.68W
01/13/2016  M5.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600252

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
628 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     SNOW             MARILLA                 42.84N  78.53W
01/13/2016  M7.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   SNOW SPOTTER

            SINCE 230 PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600253

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
638 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     SNOW             LANCASTER               42.90N  78.67W
01/13/2016  M5.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600254

CHURCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
644 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

NYZ001-010-011-140115-
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
644 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GENESEE...
NORTHEASTERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN NIAGARA COUNTIES...

AT 640 PM EST...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING SNOW FALL
RATES OF UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM THE
CITY OF BUFFALO TO THE BUFFALO AIRPORT...EXTENDING THROUGH CLARENCE
AND AKRON.

THIS BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH THIS EVENING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO...CHEEKTOWAGA...WEST SENECA...NORTH TONAWANDA...CLARENCE...
LACKAWANNA...KENMORE...DEPEW...AMHERST AND TONAWANDA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN EXITS 56 AND 48A.

VISIBILITIES WILL DROP QUICKLY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN THIS BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW OR ICE COVERED ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA
TIME WHEN TRAVELING.

LAT...LON 4308 7900 4307 7893 4304 7890 4301 7891
      4319 7851 4289 7832 4287 7849 4278 7885
      4282 7887 4284 7886 4286 7889 4293 7890
      4299 7894 4296 7894 4300 7902

WELCH