Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Brownsville, TX

317 
WWUS54 KBRO 182132
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
432 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

TXC261-489-182142-
/O.EXP.KBRO.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-160518T2130Z/
KENEDY TX-WILLACY TX-
432 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KENEDY AND NORTHERN WILLACY
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 2690 9746 2693 9746 2700 9756 2695 9755
      2695 9756 2689 9746 2689 9747 2679 9751
      2677 9749 2684 9746 2650 9739 2649 9799
      2715 9799 2727 9742
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 264DEG 29KT 2712 9794 2684 9778 2650 9784 

$$

BIRCHFIELD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
321 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):A late season cold
front is located over the northern Ranchlands with a bow echo
anchored along the boundary moving steadily east over Jim Hogg
and Northern Starr counties. GFS as well as the HRRR shows a
strong vort max moving across South Central Texas approaching the
Lower TX coast through this evening. This disturbance should
maintain the integrity of this cell as well allow for additional
cell development the rest of the afternoon. GFS and again the HRRR
show another strong disturbance moving out of Mexico into the Mid
and Lower Valley this evening with possibility of another round of
thunderstorms. The ECMWF shows yet another disturbance moving
across the RGV Thursday. The combination of the front abundant
deepening moisture, PWATs 1.8 to 2+ inches, and the disturbances
will keep a small threat of severe weather with a more substantial
transition to a heavy rain event with training of heavy showers
and thunderstorms anticipated along and south of the cold front.
WPC has the western half of the CWA under an slight risk of
excessive rainfall outlook which matches up well with our thinking
locally. QPF values on the latest GFS and ECMWF have increased as
well with each of its distinct disturbances. Have decided to issue
a Flash Flood Watch for our entire CWA from 7pm this evening until
7 pm Thursday. Temperatures will be subject to the rainfall and
will maintain current lows in the 70s and but lower Thursday highs
in the 80's which might have to be lowered another category.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The upper trough finally
moves east of Texas Friday but trails a cold front into the
region. residual moisture will combine with the low level
convergence along the front to generate another round of showers
and thunderstorms Friday. High pressure ridge builds over Texas
between deep troughs along both the West and East U.S coasts.
Subsidence under the ridge should work on slowly drying out our
atmosphere. This will result in lower rain chances and raised
temperatures this weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE: tonight through Monday...A weak stationary front to
remain north or lie across the northern coastal waters through
Friday before dissipating this weekend. light to occasional
moderate easterly winds and a low sea to persist. a slightly
stronger gradient this weekend and early next week will allow for
moderate southeast winds and slightly higher seas. No advisories
are anticipated at this time. showers and thunderstorms to
impact the coastal waters at times through Friday with isolated
activity on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  83  76  84 /  60  60  50  40
BROWNSVILLE          75  85  76  86 /  60  60  50  40
HARLINGEN            74  85  75  88 /  60  60  50  40
MCALLEN              75  87  75  89 /  60  60  50  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  88  73  91 /  60  60  50  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  81  77  80 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     evening for TXZ248>257.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...short/long term
65/68 Radar/PSU

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
440 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

TXZ248>257-190945-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
440 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-190945-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
440 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1005 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HAIL             FALCON DAM              26.55N  99.13W
05/17/2016  E0.88 INCH       STARR              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            FRONT AND BACK WINDOWS OF A FRONT END LOADER SHATTERED
            AT FALCON DAM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1600047

BIRCHFIELD