Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Brownsville, TX

481 
WWUS54 KBRO 181848
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
148 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

TXC247-427-181915-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-160518T1915Z/
STARR TX-JIM HOGG TX-
148 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL STARR AND SOUTHWESTERN JIM HOGG COUNTIES...

AT 147 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THOMPSONVILLE TO 6 MILES EAST OF GUERRA TO NEAR
VIBORAS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...INCLUDING CRACKED WINDSHIELDS AND 
         MINOR EXTERIOR DENTS CAN EXPECTED. SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND 
         TREES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT MINOR WIND DAMAGE TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...SOME ROOFS...SIDING AND SOME FENCES. TREE LIMBS 
         WILL BLOW DOWN AND SMALL TREES WILL BE UPROOTED. DAMAGE TO 
         POWER LINES AND SOME POWER POLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VIBORAS...AGUA NUEVA...GUERRA AND RANDADO. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BROWNSVILLE .

&&

LAT...LON 2666 9885 2669 9900 2678 9895 2712 9895
      2720 9867 2691 9859 2665 9872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 261DEG 26KT 2719 9887 2690 9878 2669 9888 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BIRCHFIELD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect convection to increase in areal coverage this
afternoon and tonight as a weak cold front becomes stationary over
the northern portions of Deep South Texas. MVFR cigs will be the
main aviation impact outside of the scattered to numerous
convection. light southeast to east winds south of the front with
an east to northeast wind also a light speeds are anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 950 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...Forecast update increased the chance of rain in the
Middle and Lower Rio Grande Valley for today and into tonight.
SPC has upgraded our severe weather outlook to Slight Chance from
now through 7 am Thursday which prompted the mention of severe
thunderstorms in the forecast for later this afternoon and
tonight. Heating will have to take place to get the atmosphere
primed for stronger organized convection however, the combination
of low level convergence due to a stalled front north of our CWA
and disturbances within the persistent southwest will keep the
chance of shwr/tstms development through the day. The severe
weather chances will be greatest over the northern and western
counties with lessor chances towards the coast. In addition to the
severe weather we are expecting localized to scattered areas of
heavy rainfall. Slow moving storms and increasing moisture south
of the front could warrant an issuance of a Flash Flood Watch for
all or portions of Deep South Texas for tonight and Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 839 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...completely overhauled the tafs for all three
airports. We can expect convection to refire this afternoon with
occasional mvfr cigs during the showers and thunderstorms. showers
and thunderstorms developing/continuing west of KMFE as of 1330Z
could approach the airport this morning but expecting showers to
impact the area with tempo mvfr cigs. some patchy mvfr fog
impacting KHRL this morning should be short lived. majority of
convection and associated mvfr cigs should be in the afternoon and
evening hours. light southeast to east surface winds to prevail
outside of any convection.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...A wake low brought strong, gusty southeast winds to
area airports in the predawn hours, but conditions will settle
down now for the next few hours. Showers and thunderstorms will
remain in the area, with a marginal risk of severe weather later
today, arising in the west and moving across the area. Overcast,
MVFR skies will predominate today...with light east winds.
Stronger storms that could form later today may contain hail and
may produce lightning, brief heavy downpours and strong gusty
winds, and would pose a risk to aviation interests if they tracked
close to or over the airfield.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Unsettled weather will
continue in the short term. The CWA will remain in a marginal
severe tstorm risk area. A cold front will push into south central
Texas today while a mid level short wave trough moves across
Arizona and New Mexico, maintaining a potentially destabilizing
west southwest flow aloft, if weak disturbances are detected
moving within the flow. Dew points south of the surface front,
that is in deep South Texas and the RGV, will remain elevated,
mainly in the 70s. Convection may again fire in the mountains of
Mexico with peak heating later today, moving east into the CWA, in
addition to any frontal convection. Convection early this morning
pushed east into the CWA, with large hail being the primary
hazard, but also with the threat of strong, damaging winds.
Furthermore, convection initiating this afternoon and tonight, and
moving across the area, may linger into Thursday morning.

Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with high temps in the 80s and lower
90s today and Thursday. Low temperatures in the 70s tonight.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will prevail through a majority of the
long term portion of the forecast, specifically from Thursday
night through Sunday, as a series of disturbances within a west-
southwest to east-northeast 500 mb flow over Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley generate convection. Drier weather is
anticipated Sunday night and through the end of the forecast as
500 mb ridging develops over the Lone Star State and persists.
Well above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures will
be the norm.

MARINE (Now through Thursday): Light to moderate east to
southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail through the short
term. Southeast winds will steady out at moderate southeast on
Thursday as a tighter gradient develops over the northwest Gulf,
pushing a remnant frontal boundary over the middle Texas coast
back north.

Thursday night through Tuesday: Generally moderate winds and seas
are forecast along the Lower Texas Coast during the period with
surface high pressure in control over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not
likely to be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  76  86  77 /  60  60  40  40
BROWNSVILLE          87  76  88  77 /  60  60  40  40
HARLINGEN            89  75  89  76 /  60  60  50  40
MCALLEN              91  76  91  76 /  60  60  50  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  74  92  74 /  60  60  50  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  77  83  78 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...aviation/short/long term

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
440 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

TXZ248>257-190945-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
440 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-190945-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
440 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1005 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HAIL             FALCON DAM              26.55N  99.13W
05/17/2016  E0.88 INCH       STARR              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            FRONT AND BACK WINDOWS OF A FRONT END LOADER SHATTERED
            AT FALCON DAM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1600047

BIRCHFIELD