Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
655 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Scattered thunderstorms initiated along a surface wind shift over
western ND late this afternoon and are slowly propagating east as
of 2350 UTC. Their eastward movement is a bit slower than earlier
anticipated, and recent model guidance suggests mid-level heights
may begin slowly rising through 06 UTC, both of which calls into
question the eastward bounds of the severe threat this evening.
This update slowed the eastward advance of PoPs and reduced them
somewhat over south central ND. Otherwise, based on RAP analysis
data, deep-layer shear is strongest in north central ND and in the
vicinity of the supercell over Mountrail County at this hour, with
0-6-km bulk wind differences around 40 kt and MLCAPE up to 3000
J/kg supportive of large hail and damaging gusts. Shear is weaker
in southwest ND, which is why storms there have been less robust.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Current surface analysis places low/frontal boundary over eastern
Montana with moist southerly flow over much of the Dakotas. Upper
level analysis places weak ridge pushing towards central North
Dakota while low spins over central Alberta. Variety of short
waves continue to slide through strong southwest flow behind
aforementioned ridge with a notable one pushing though eastern
Montana. Some light elevated convection continue over northwest
North Dakota...though a stronger storm is starting to develop over
far southwest North Dakota.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, surface based storms
will continue to develop over eastern Montana into western North
Dakota as cap erodes ahead of aforementioned surface low and
short wave. Strong instability noted over western into central
North Dakota where moisture continues to surge in, with cape
values in excess of 3000 j/kg over western North Dakota, and
values in excess of 4000 j/kg towards the central. Adequate 0-6
km bulk shear of 35 kts or greater for supercell development is
noted across the area. Storms will push east across the area
overnight with strong winds/hail as a primary threat. Forecast
soundings also suggest that a few storms may pose a heavy rain
threat with the moisture rich atmosphere, particularly slower
moving ones.

Next wave and affiliated frontal boundary pushes into the area
very early Monday morning bringing additional chances for
showers/thunderstorms which will continue into mid-day. Latest
guidance suggests higher coverage of precipitation with this
system, particularly over central ND/James River Valley. Severe
threat remains primarily ahead of the front over the James River
Valley later in the day, though would not be surprised if any
storms strengthen in the morning as the front moves through with
ample instability remaining. Conditions dry out from west to east
in the afternoon/early evening.

Quiet weather expected Tuesday as weak ridge passes over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Main highlight in the long term period will be another round of
thunderstorms Wednesday/Wednesday evening, followed by a quiet
period thereafter into next weekend.

Next closed mid level low moves east through the Northern Plains
Wednesday through Wednesday night bringing a decent chance for
thunderstorms to our region. Similar set-up as we see today
though models place this closed low farther south tracking east
along the International Border.

Thursday through Saturday look mainly dry as an upper level ridge
builds across the Rockies then migrates east into the Great Plains
by Saturday night, coupled with surface high pressure over the
state. Return flow and a transition to a more active
west/southwesterly flow aloft late next weekend into the following
work week will see increasing chances for precipitation.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Scattered thunderstorms with local MVFR or IFR conditions are
expected tonight through Monday. Gusty winds and large hail are
possible with the strongest storms. There's also a chance of
patchy fog and MVFR ceilings in south central ND late tonight
and early Monday morning, but confidence in that is relatively
low.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-020015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
705 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 /605 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME SLOW-
MOVING STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
743 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW NEW TOWN           47.97N 102.51W
07/31/2016  E70 MPH          MOUNTRAIL          ND   PUBLIC

            4 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES WERE SNAPPED OFF.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
746 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 E NEW TOWN            47.98N 102.34W
07/31/2016                   MOUNTRAIL          ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CAMPER OVERTURNED IN A DITCH NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAYS 8 AND 23.

&&

KROLAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
758 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             NEW TOWN                47.98N 102.49W
07/31/2016  M1.00 INCH       MOUNTRAIL          ND   PUBLIC

            .

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
801 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             NEW TOWN                47.98N 102.49W
07/31/2016  E2.00 INCH       MOUNTRAIL          ND   PUBLIC

            .

&&

MM

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