Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Bismarck, ND

896 
WWUS53 KBIS 012345
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDC045-093-020030-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-160802T0030Z/
STUTSMAN ND-LAMOURE ND-
645 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL STUTSMAN AND NORTHEASTERN LAMOURE COUNTIES...

AT 645 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF
YPSILANTI...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARION AROUND 700 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4672 9858 4699 9852 4698 9844 4664 9843
      4663 9804 4639 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 298DEG 27KT 4676 9841 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHILD

812 
WWUS53 KBIS 020005
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDC045-093-020015-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-160802T0030Z/
STUTSMAN ND-LAMOURE ND-
705 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL STUTSMAN AND
NORTHEASTERN LAMOURE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BISMARCK.

LAT...LON 4672 9858 4699 9852 4698 9844 4664 9843
      4663 9804 4639 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 301DEG 29KT 4668 9821 

$$

SCHILD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
624 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Will let the severe thunderstorm watch stand for now, then
consider taking counties out in the western portion of the watch
in the next hour or two. Still watching a weak outflow boundary in
central and southern Burleigh county, now approaching Menoken and
pushing southwest. Will await and see what may develop from this.
Current forecast on track with severe thunderstorms south central
and James River Valley this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Severe thunderstorm watch 429 issued and valid until 11 pm cdt
Monday. Updates to text products imminent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating over
central Manitoba with a couple of shortwave troughs migrating
through the cyclonic flow across central ND.

The main highlight in the short term period will be potential for
severe thunderstorms across the James River Valley through this
evening. Uncertainty remains on how things may/will evolve as high
resolution convective allowing models differing on this. Main
players are a surface front/density gradient situated over the
James River Valley with dewpoints in the lower 70s as opposed to
60F-65F farther west. A mid level/700mb shortwave was noted near
Fort Yates, and this is forecast to slide atop the cold front this
afternoon/evening. This is in line with the latest SPC outlook
today with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall the
main threats. This is the main area we are monitoring.

Otherwise, very little if any precipitation expected west,
although a jet streak was seen sliding across northeast MT into
south central Manitoba. The right entrance region could induce
enough vertical motion for an isolated non severe thunderstorm
west.

For tonight and Tuesday, shortwave ridging takes control behind
our departing upper low and shortwave trough. Tuesday will see a
brief return to dry weather with highs in the 80s under sunny
conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Active weather increases Tuesday night and is full control
Wednesday, as another upper low now located just off of Vancouver
Island is forecast to migrate along the US/Canadian border. SPC
Day 3 already indicating a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms
for all but western ND. Minot, Bismarck, and Jamestown per NSharp
soundings are all uncapped by 21z, with ample cape and shear present
ahead of slightly negatively tilted trough and ahead of a sharp
cold front. Good chance for severe weather to unfold given the
current scenario and setup. Will add a mention of severe wording
in the gridded forecast.

Breezy and cooler Thursday behind the system with highs in the
70s.

The pattern remains progressive and active, with another
mid/upper level transitory shortwave ridge Thursday night through
Friday producing dry and tranquil conditions. Although broad
ridging remains for most of the weekend, there will be enough
instability for a slight chance mention, but dry most of the time.
The GFS and ECMWF agree that Monday looks to be the best chance
for thunderstorms across western and central ND.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

KJMS terminal will have severe weather through 0130z Tuesday.
Expect ping pong ball size hail and very heavy rain with wind
gusts to 45kt. Elsewhere a clearing sky will commence through 06z.
Skc thereafter and through the rest of the Taf period at all
terminals.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
346 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-022100-
WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
346 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 /246 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>022-031>033-040-041-043-044-022100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
346 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 /246 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
438 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ROBINSON                47.14N  99.78W
08/01/2016                   KIDDER             ND   PUBLIC

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED NEAR ROBINSON. FUNNEL WAS HALF
            WAY TO THE GROUND THEN LIFTED.

&&

NHEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
450 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             1 W ROBINSON            47.14N  99.80W
08/01/2016  E1.75 INCH       KIDDER             ND   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR ROBINSON.

&&

NHEINERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
352 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ041-042-044-012230-
ADAMS ND-HETTINGER ND-GRANT ND-
352 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HETTINGER...
SOUTHWESTERN GRANT AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
MDT...

AT 352 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTH OF MOTT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENTLEY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4609 10239 4629 10241 4636 10190 4609 10185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 262DEG 16KT 4620 10231

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
430 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ042-044-012300-
ADAMS ND-GRANT ND-
430 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GRANT AND EAST
CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 430 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES SOUTH OF NEW LEIPZIG...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF ELGIN...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN GRANT
AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4605 10184 4606 10184 4607 10185 4607 10189
      4606 10190 4607 10194 4607 10206 4621 10206
      4621 10200 4626 10200 4629 10158 4603 10158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 269DEG 19KT 4616 10196

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
617 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ042-045-020000-
SIOUX ND-GRANT ND-
617 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL GRANT AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT/600 PM MDT/...

AT 617 PM CDT/517 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF WATAUGA...OR 29 MILES EAST OF LEMMON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GRANT
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4595 10173 4613 10161 4605 10099 4594 10105
      4594 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 292DEG 20KT 4602 10156

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
626 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND GST     JAMESTOWN               46.91N  98.71W
08/01/2016  E60 MPH          STUTSMAN           ND   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED WITH THE WIND. OTHER
            PUBLIC REPORT INDICATED PEA SIZE HAIL AND GETTING
            LARGER.

&&

NHEINERT