Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Bismarck, ND

246 
WWUS53 KBIS 012021
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDC043-093-012045-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0198.000000T0000Z-160801T2045Z/
KIDDER ND-STUTSMAN ND-
321 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN KIDDER AND NORTHWESTERN STUTSMAN COUNTIES...

AT 321 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PETTIBONE...OR 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF MEDINA...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WOODWORTH AROUND 340 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE LAKE
WILLIAMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4707 9903 4709 9976 4717 9984 4733 9934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 251DEG 28KT 4719 9957 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHILD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
221 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating over
central Manitoba with a couple of shortwave troughs migrating
through the cyclonic flow across central ND.

The main highlight in the short term period will be potential for
severe thunderstorms across the James River Valley through this
evening. Uncertainty remains on how things may/will evolve as high
resolution convective allowing models differing on this. Main
players are a surface front/density gradient situated over the
James River Valley with dewpoints in the lower 70s as opposed to
60F-65F farther west. A mid level/700mb shortwave was noted near
Fort Yates, and this is forecast to slide atop the cold front this
afternoon/evening. This is in line with the latest SPC outlook
today with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall the
main threats. This is the main area we are monitoring.

Otherwise, very little if any precipitation expected west,
although a jet streak was seen sliding across northeast MT into
south central Manitoba. The right entrance region could induce
enough vertical motion for an isolated non severe thunderstorm
west.

For tonight and Tuesday, shortwave ridging takes control behind
our departing upper low and shortwave trough. Tuesday will see a
brief return to dry weather with highs in the 80s under sunny
conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Active weather increases Tuesday night and is full control
Wednesday, as another upper low now located just off of Vancouver
Island is forecast to migrate along the US/Canadian border. SPC
Day 3 already indicating a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms
for all but western ND. Minot, Bismarck, and Jamestown per NSharp
soundings are all uncapped by 21z, with ample cape and shear present
ahead of slightly negatively tilted trough and ahead of a sharp
cold front. Good chance for severe weather to unfold given the
current scenario and setup. Will add a mention of severe wording
in the gridded forecast.

Breezy and cooler Thursday behind the system with highs in the
70s.

The pattern remains progressive and active, with another
mid/upper level transitory shortwave ridge Thursday night through
Friday producing dry and tranquil conditions. Although broad
ridging remains for most of the weekend, there will be enough
instability for a slight chance mention, but dry most of the time.
The GFS and ECMWF agree that Monday looks to be the best chance
for thunderstorms across western and central ND.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

A cold front was moving east through North Dakota early this
afternoon, extending from the northeast corner of the state to the
south central. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along this
front later this afternoon, mainly just west of the James River
Valley. A few low clouds are still hanging around KBIS and KJMS,
leading to intermittent MVFR ceilings. These clouds should continue
to lift in the next few hours, giving way to VFR conditions for the
rest of the period. The only exception will be over KJMS with any
heavier thunderstorms that form in the 20-22z time frame. Expect a
few hours of breezy north to northwest winds behind the front this
afternoon.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...ZH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
241 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051-021945-
WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
241 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 /141 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>022-031>033-040>044-021945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
241 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 /141 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
253 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ036-037-012045-
STUTSMAN ND-KIDDER ND-
253 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN KIDDER AND WEST
CENTRAL STUTSMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 253 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ROBINSON...OR 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF STEELE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PETTIBONE...ROBINSON...LAKE WILLIAMS AND HORSEHEAD LAKE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4700 9980 4716 9990 4733 9955 4733 9951
      4707 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 247DEG 27KT 4711 9975

SCHILD