Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

June 16, 2016Burleigh County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at Jun 16, 2016, 10:02 PM CDT for Burleigh County, North Dakota. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2016, 10:02 PM CDT (03:02 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2016, 10:30 PM CDT
In force: 28 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND

County Burleigh County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 15 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 16, 6:47 PM CDT, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 6:47 PM CDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
647 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Latest satellite images show cu field beginning to erode the cap.
Expect thunderstorm development shortly across south central
North Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

At the surface, an upper level low is located over northern
Alberta, ejecting a shortwave north into Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. This wave was responsible for the scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the Canadian border earlier this morning that
have since moved north out of the state. Over on the west coast
of the CONUS, a deepening trough will be the focus of this
afternoon's showers and thunderstorms over parts of western and
central North Dakota. A visible short wave on water vapor located
over the southern Black Hills of South Dakota will begin to nudge
into southwestern North Dakota, where a surface low and a plethora
of boundaries are present.

While most models show ample bulk and low level shear coupled with
plenty of CAPE over the forecast area, an elevated mixed layer is
currently providing high temperatures in the H8 and H7 levels,
keeping a stout cap in place. This cap should remain strong
through the afternoon until a cold front approaches with a push of
mid level western air that will aid in cooling the mid-level
temperatures slightly. The global models and the NAM hold off
widespread convection until well after 00-03z but the latest
iterations of the HRRR and other CAMs have been a bit more
aggressive, initiating isolated supercells just west of the
Missouri river by the 23-01z time frame. So, at this point we are
in a holding pattern and enjoying the waiting game. If storms can
realize the impressive environment without suffering from the cap
suppression, storms will have the potential to produce some large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a condition threat of a brief
tornado given some elevated low level shear eventually as the low
level jet kicks in around sunset. This is a very conditional
forecast with quite a bit on uncertainty, and one we will have to
keep monitoring through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

As the pattern keeps the region in a southwest flow regime, nearly
daily chances of thunderstorms will be possible throughout the
weekend, starting with a potential MCS overnight Friday into
Saturday morning.

Saturday is looking potentially like the most interesting severe
setup of the period thus far, with some of the most impressive
parameter space we've seen forecast this season by all the major
models. Still lots off questions with strong capping, timing, and
small scale details. However, we will have to closely monitor this
one as if models remain constant, all severe weather hazards could
be possible during the late afternoon and evening/overnight hours.
More details should be nailed down in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued
at 1137 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

A cold front will slide from west to east this evening. A line of
thunderstorms is expected to develop from just east of KMOT south
to KBIS between 00z and 03z Friday, then shift into KJMS after 03z
Friday. MVFR cigs expected at KJMS from after 09z.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...KS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 7:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 2 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
700 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-180000-
BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
700 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 /600 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THROUGH TONIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY AFTER 6 PM CDT.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFTING FROM A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO FINALLY BREAK A CAPPING INVERSION. INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP.

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-180000-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
700 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 /600 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WAA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 7:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 17 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
745 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDZ020-021-034-035-170130-
OLIVER ND-MORTON ND-BURLEIGH ND-MCLEAN ND-
745 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN...
SOUTHEASTERN OLIVER...NORTHWESTERN BURLEIGH AND NORTH CENTRAL MORTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 744 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LAKE HARMON...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF MANDAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILTON...REGAN...CROSS RANCH STATE PARK...LAKE HARMON...BALDWIN...
DOUBLE DITCH INDIAN VILLAGE...PRICE AND SANGER.

LAT...LON 4688 10091 4697 10114 4737 10091 4721 10047
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 212DEG 32KT 4700 10096

ABELING

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 8:13 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
813 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDZ034-170145-
MORTON ND-
813 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MORTON COUNTY UNTIL 845
PM CDT...

AT 812 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF FLASHER...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANDAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FISH CREEK DAM.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4651 10130 4663 10130 4663 10132 4678 10123
      4664 10090 4645 10114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 208DEG 11KT 4657 10120

ABELING

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 10:02 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1002 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDZ034-035-170330-
MORTON ND-BURLEIGH ND-
1002 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BURLEIGH AND
NORTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 1002 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER MANDAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BISMARCK...MANDAN...LINCOLN...MENOKEN...
MCDOWELL DAM RECREATION AREA...LAKE HARMON...
DOUBLE DITCH INDIAN VILLAGE...
FORT ABRAHAM LINCOLN STATE PARK AND UNIVERSITY OF MARY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4677 10110 4699 10094 4701 10088 4706 10088
      4681 10044 4667 10091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 229DEG 19KT 4678 10090

HARGROVE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 16, 7:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burleigh	45 min
Jun 16, 8:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Morton	32 min
Jun 16, 8:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton	58 min
Jun 16, 9:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton	52 min
Jun 16, 9:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	63 min
Jun 16, 10:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	57 min
Jun 16, 10:37 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Grant, Morton	5 hr
Jun 16, 11:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Sioux	31 min
Jun 17, 12:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Golden Valley, Slope	65 min
Jun 17, 1:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	59 min
Jun 17, 1:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Dunn, Hettinger, Slope, Stark	62 min
Jun 17, 1:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	49 min
Jun 17, 2:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Hettinger, Morton, Stark	60 min
Jun 17, 2:57 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Grant, Hettinger	33 min
Jun 17, 3:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton, Oliver	47 min
Jun 17, 3:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Morton, Oliver	62 min
Jun 17, 4:47 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Wells	28 min
Jun 17, 4:57 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Kidder, Sheridan, Wells	63 min
Jun 17, 6:01 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster, Stutsman, Wells	59 min
Jun 17, 6:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Foster, Stutsman	56 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.