Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Bismarck, ND

313 
WWUS53 KBIS 170637
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
137 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NDC037-059-170700-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160617T0700Z/
GRANT ND-MORTON ND-
137 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM
CDT/100 AM MDT/ FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRANT AND CENTRAL MORTON
COUNTIES...

AT 137 AM CDT/1237 AM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FISH CREEK DAM...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANDAN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL GRANT AND CENTRAL MORTON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4654 10175 4669 10178 4691 10128 4654 10130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 258DEG 22KT 4664 10132 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JONES

489 
WWUS53 KBIS 170647
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
147 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NDC037-059-170700-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160617T0700Z/
GRANT ND-MORTON ND-
147 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM
CDT/100 AM MDT/ FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRANT AND CENTRAL MORTON
COUNTIES...

AT 147 AM CDT/1247 AM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES EAST OF HEART BUTTE DAM...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ELGIN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4668 10178 4681 10129 4654 10130 4654 10175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 266DEG 20KT 4658 10167 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JONES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1222 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

We have overhauled the overnight forecast to 1) generally decrease
the chance of thunderstorms in the James River valley until late
tonight, and 2) focus the chance of thunderstorms from southwest
into central ND from 06 to 11 UTC. Capping held on for most of the
length of the surface wind shift over central ND this evening, and
the earlier slow-moving supercell in southeast Morton County has
diminished. A few cells continue west/southwest of Bismarck and
around Rolla as of 0515 UTC, but radar trends suggest most of them
are not particularly robust. Meanwhile, convection in southeastern
MT appears associated with a more well-defined shortwave trough
and its related ascent. That convection may intensify quickly once
it enters southwest and central ND the next few hours, where there
is an axis of MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg along and east of a line
from Dickinson to Hettinger. Guidance also calls for effective
bulk wind shear to steadily increase from west to east the next
few hours. The result is that the storms coming out of MT may
become severe in southwest ND and maintain their intensity as they
propagate into central ND late tonight. Recent HRRR and ESRL-HRRR
runs support this idea, especially with their updraft helicity
fields, which exceed 50 m2/s2 with their simulated storms moving
from Slope and Adams Counties northeast toward Bismarck by 10 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 1004 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Strong thunderstorms continue south central. Heavy rain possible.

UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Latest satellite images show cu field beginning to erode the cap.
Expect thunderstorm development shortly across south central
North Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

At the surface, an upper level low is located over northern
Alberta, ejecting a shortwave north into Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. This wave was responsible for the scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the Canadian border earlier this morning that
have since moved north out of the state. Over on the west coast
of the CONUS, a deepening trough will be the focus of this
afternoon's showers and thunderstorms over parts of western and
central North Dakota. A visible short wave on water vapor located
over the southern Black Hills of South Dakota will begin to nudge
into southwestern North Dakota, where a surface low and a plethora
of boundaries are present.

While most models show ample bulk and low level shear coupled with
plenty of CAPE over the forecast area, an elevated mixed layer is
currently providing high temperatures in the H8 and H7 levels,
keeping a stout cap in place. This cap should remain strong
through the afternoon until a cold front approaches with a push of
mid level western air that will aid in cooling the mid-level
temperatures slightly. The global models and the NAM hold off
widespread convection until well after 00-03z but the latest
iterations of the HRRR and other CAMs have been a bit more
aggressive, initiating isolated supercells just west of the
Missouri river by the 23-01z time frame. So, at this point we are
in a holding pattern and enjoying the waiting game. If storms can
realize the impressive environment without suffering from the cap
suppression, storms will have the potential to produce some large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a condition threat of a brief
tornado given some elevated low level shear eventually as the low
level jet kicks in around sunset. This is a very conditional
forecast with quite a bit on uncertainty, and one we will have to
keep monitoring through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

As the pattern keeps the region in a southwest flow regime, nearly
daily chances of thunderstorms will be possible throughout the
weekend, starting with a potential MCS overnight Friday into
Saturday morning.

Saturday is looking potentially like the most interesting severe
setup of the period thus far, with some of the most impressive
parameter space we've seen forecast this season by all the major
models. Still lots off questions with strong capping, timing, and
small scale details. However, we will have to closely monitor this
one as if models remain constant, all severe weather hazards could
be possible during the late afternoon and evening/overnight hours.
More details should be nailed down in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

A complex of showers and thunderstorms may move across southwest
and central ND overnight with local IFR/MVFR conditions, heavy
rainfall, and possibly large hail and damaging winds. KDIK could
be impacted between 07 and 09 UTC, KBIS between 09 and 11 UTC, and
KJMS between 11 and 13 UTC. In addition, MVFR ceilings in stratus
will likely impact KJMS late tonight and early Friday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will generally prevail during the day Friday with a
much lower thunderstorm risk.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NDZ003>005-010>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-180530-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016 /1125 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND MOVE NORTHEAST...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE AFTER 3 AM CDT. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD
OF THAT MAIN STORM COMPLEX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

NDZ001-002-009-180530-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-
1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
745 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDZ020-021-034-035-170130-
OLIVER ND-MORTON ND-BURLEIGH ND-MCLEAN ND-
745 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN...
SOUTHEASTERN OLIVER...NORTHWESTERN BURLEIGH AND NORTH CENTRAL MORTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 744 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LAKE HARMON...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF MANDAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILTON...REGAN...CROSS RANCH STATE PARK...LAKE HARMON...BALDWIN...
DOUBLE DITCH INDIAN VILLAGE...PRICE AND SANGER.

LAT...LON 4688 10091 4697 10114 4737 10091 4721 10047
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 212DEG 32KT 4700 10096

ABELING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
813 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDZ034-170145-
MORTON ND-
813 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MORTON COUNTY UNTIL 845
PM CDT...

AT 812 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF FLASHER...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANDAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FISH CREEK DAM.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4651 10130 4663 10130 4663 10132 4678 10123
      4664 10090 4645 10114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 208DEG 11KT 4657 10120

ABELING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1002 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDZ034-035-170330-
MORTON ND-BURLEIGH ND-
1002 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BURLEIGH AND
NORTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 1002 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER MANDAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BISMARCK...MANDAN...LINCOLN...MENOKEN...
MCDOWELL DAM RECREATION AREA...LAKE HARMON...
DOUBLE DITCH INDIAN VILLAGE...
FORT ABRAHAM LINCOLN STATE PARK AND UNIVERSITY OF MARY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4677 10110 4699 10094 4701 10088 4706 10088
      4681 10044 4667 10091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 229DEG 19KT 4678 10090

HARGROVE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1129 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDZ034-042-045-170500-
MORTON-SIOUX-GRANT-
1129 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN GRANT...NORTH
CENTRAL SIOUX AND SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT/1100 PM MDT/...

AT 1128 PM CDT/1028 PM MDT/...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF SHIELDS TO
NEAR SOLEN. THE STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH...PENNY SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOLEN AND BREIEN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4656 10101 4645 10069 4624 10102 4629 10123
TIME...MOT...LOC 0428Z 282DEG 2KT 4631 10115 4642 10087

AYD