Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Bismarck, ND

June 16, 2016Grant County, Morton County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 16, 2016, 8:42 PM MDT for Grant County, Morton County, North Dakota. It was in force for 63 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2016, 8:42 PM MDT (02:42 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2016, 9:45 PM MDT
In force: 63 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Grant County, ND, Morton County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 16, 9:00 PM MDT	HAIL 1	8 Se Flasher, ND

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 18 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2745 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1725 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 47 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

659 
WUUS53 KBIS 170242
SVRBIS
NDC037-059-170345-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0045.160617T0242Z-160617T0345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT/945 PM MDT/

* AT 942 PM CDT/842 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  FLASHER...OR 28 MILES NORTH OF SELFRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
  EAST CENTRAL GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: BREIEN AND RALEIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4642 10136 4665 10095 4639 10080 4638 10081
      4640 10086 4639 10088 4641 10088 4639 10092
      4637 10094 4635 10094 4633 10097 4630 10129
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 255DEG 7KT 4643 10113 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ACOOP

2 follow-up statements

306 
WWUS53 KBIS 170256
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDC037-059-170345-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-160617T0345Z/
GRANT ND-MORTON ND-
956 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM
CDT/945 PM MDT/ FOR EAST CENTRAL GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN MORTON
COUNTIES...

AT 956 PM CDT/856 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7
MILES EAST OF FLASHER...OR 27 MILES SOUTH OF MANDAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLASHER...SOLEN...RALEIGH AND BREIEN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4642 10136 4643 10135 4665 10095 4639 10080
      4638 10081 4640 10086 4639 10088 4641 10088
      4639 10092 4637 10094 4635 10094 4633 10097
      4633 10102 4630 10129
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 223DEG 18KT 4645 10108 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

HARGROVE

330 
WWUS53 KBIS 170313
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1013 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDC037-059-170345-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-160617T0345Z/
GRANT ND-MORTON ND-
1013 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM
CDT/945 PM MDT/ FOR EASTERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTIES...

AT 1013 PM CDT/913 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9
MILES EAST OF FLASHER...OR 26 MILES SOUTH OF MANDAN...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLASHER...SOLEN AND BREIEN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4664 10097 4639 10080 4638 10081 4640 10086
      4639 10088 4641 10088 4639 10092 4637 10094
      4635 10094 4633 10097 4633 10102 4630 10125
      4646 10129 4649 10124
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 255DEG 7KT 4646 10103 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

HARGROVE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 16, 5:47 PM MDT, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 5:47 PM MDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
647 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Latest satellite images show cu field beginning to erode the cap.
Expect thunderstorm development shortly across south central
North Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

At the surface, an upper level low is located over northern
Alberta, ejecting a shortwave north into Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. This wave was responsible for the scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the Canadian border earlier this morning that
have since moved north out of the state. Over on the west coast
of the CONUS, a deepening trough will be the focus of this
afternoon's showers and thunderstorms over parts of western and
central North Dakota. A visible short wave on water vapor located
over the southern Black Hills of South Dakota will begin to nudge
into southwestern North Dakota, where a surface low and a plethora
of boundaries are present.

While most models show ample bulk and low level shear coupled with
plenty of CAPE over the forecast area, an elevated mixed layer is
currently providing high temperatures in the H8 and H7 levels,
keeping a stout cap in place. This cap should remain strong
through the afternoon until a cold front approaches with a push of
mid level western air that will aid in cooling the mid-level
temperatures slightly. The global models and the NAM hold off
widespread convection until well after 00-03z but the latest
iterations of the HRRR and other CAMs have been a bit more
aggressive, initiating isolated supercells just west of the
Missouri river by the 23-01z time frame. So, at this point we are
in a holding pattern and enjoying the waiting game. If storms can
realize the impressive environment without suffering from the cap
suppression, storms will have the potential to produce some large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a condition threat of a brief
tornado given some elevated low level shear eventually as the low
level jet kicks in around sunset. This is a very conditional
forecast with quite a bit on uncertainty, and one we will have to
keep monitoring through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

As the pattern keeps the region in a southwest flow regime, nearly
daily chances of thunderstorms will be possible throughout the
weekend, starting with a potential MCS overnight Friday into
Saturday morning.

Saturday is looking potentially like the most interesting severe
setup of the period thus far, with some of the most impressive
parameter space we've seen forecast this season by all the major
models. Still lots off questions with strong capping, timing, and
small scale details. However, we will have to closely monitor this
one as if models remain constant, all severe weather hazards could
be possible during the late afternoon and evening/overnight hours.
More details should be nailed down in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued
at 1137 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

A cold front will slide from west to east this evening. A line of
thunderstorms is expected to develop from just east of KMOT south
to KBIS between 00z and 03z Friday, then shift into KJMS after 03z
Friday. MVFR cigs expected at KJMS from after 09z.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...KS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 6:00 PM MDT, 2 hours 42 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
700 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-180000-
BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
700 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 /600 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THROUGH TONIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY AFTER 6 PM CDT.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFTING FROM A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO FINALLY BREAK A CAPPING INVERSION. INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP.

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-180000-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
700 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 /600 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WAA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 6:45 PM MDT, 1 hour 57 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
745 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDZ020-021-034-035-170130-
OLIVER ND-MORTON ND-BURLEIGH ND-MCLEAN ND-
745 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN...
SOUTHEASTERN OLIVER...NORTHWESTERN BURLEIGH AND NORTH CENTRAL MORTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 744 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LAKE HARMON...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF MANDAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILTON...REGAN...CROSS RANCH STATE PARK...LAKE HARMON...BALDWIN...
DOUBLE DITCH INDIAN VILLAGE...PRICE AND SANGER.

LAT...LON 4688 10091 4697 10114 4737 10091 4721 10047
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 212DEG 32KT 4700 10096

ABELING

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 7:13 PM MDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
813 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

NDZ034-170145-
MORTON ND-
813 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MORTON COUNTY UNTIL 845
PM CDT...

AT 812 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF FLASHER...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANDAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FISH CREEK DAM.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4651 10130 4663 10130 4663 10132 4678 10123
      4664 10090 4645 10114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 208DEG 11KT 4657 10120

ABELING

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 16, 6:45 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burleigh	45 min
Jun 16, 7:13 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Morton	32 min
Jun 16, 7:47 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton	58 min
Jun 16, 8:08 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton	52 min
Jun 16, 9:02 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burleigh	28 min
Jun 16, 9:33 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	57 min
Jun 16, 9:37 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Grant, Morton	5 hr
Jun 16, 10:29 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Sioux	31 min
Jun 16, 11:55 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Golden Valley, Slope	65 min
Jun 17, 12:01 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	59 min
Jun 17, 12:43 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Dunn, Hettinger, Slope, Stark	62 min
Jun 17, 12:58 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	49 min
Jun 17, 1:30 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Hettinger, Morton, Stark	60 min
Jun 17, 1:57 AM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Grant, Hettinger	33 min
Jun 17, 2:28 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton, Oliver	47 min
Jun 17, 2:58 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Morton, Oliver	62 min
Jun 17, 3:47 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Wells	28 min
Jun 17, 3:57 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Kidder, Sheridan, Wells	63 min
Jun 17, 5:01 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster, Stutsman, Wells	59 min
Jun 17, 5:19 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Foster, Stutsman	56 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.