Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
109 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

We cancelled those portions of severe thunderstorm watch number
240 which are behind the primary, linear band of thunderstorms
that extends from near Rugby southward into Sheridan County as of
06 UTC. The line of storms has back-built south of the watch and
into eastern Burleigh County east of Bismarck. We will watch radar
trends to see if Kidder and Stutsman Counties need to be added to
the watch, but at this point trends in intensity suggest we might
not need to expand it any further.

UPDATE Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Another quick update to extend severe thunderstorm watch 240 into
Foster County based on upstream radar trends and in collaboration
with SPC and WFO Grand Forks. We also trimmed a few more counties
in southwest ND from watch 240 with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

We collaborated with SPC to expand the severe thunderstorm watch
downstream of the intense thunderstorms that were centered around
Minot at 04 UTC. The severe threat is beginning to diminish to
the west, so we also cancelled the watch for Divide, Burke, and
Williams Counties. Additional counties in western ND will likely
be able to be removed from the watch in the next 90 minutes.

UPDATE Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Overall, the forecast is trending well and only minor changes were
made with this update, namely to ramp up PoPs a bit again based on
recent HRRR simulations. We discussed the possibility of expanding
the severe thunderstorm watch further east into Bismarck/Mandan
with SPC, but based on radar trends and some capping shown on the
00 UTC Bismarck sounding the threat appears marginal enough (but
certainly non-zero) to hold off on expanding the watch in space at
this point. We will continue to re-evaluate that possibility over
the next few hours, though.

UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Quick update to accommodate a recently-issued severe thunderstorm
watch for western and parts of central ND, which is valid through
08 UTC, per collaboration with SPC. We also increased PoPs across
much of western and central ND through 09 UTC based on the recent
trends in radar imagery, which show increasing storm coverage as
forcing attendant to a shortwave trough approaches western ND.

UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.

We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.

Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.

The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.

Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.

Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Thunderstorms with local MVFR and IFR conditions, heavy rain, and
gusty winds will move out of central ND by about 11 UTC. VFR
conditions will prevail across western and central ND on Friday
behind the weak cool front which is generating tonight's
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
117 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

NDZ012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-110630-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
117 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTH...AND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-800-247-0212...OR POST IT ON OUR
FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

NDZ001>005-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045-110630-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-
MORTON-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
117 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 /1217 AM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTH...AND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CJS/KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
116 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LANSFORD                48.63N 101.38W
06/09/2016                   BOTTINEAU          ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND SHINGLES TAKEN OFF ROOFS.
            WINDS ESTIMATED TO 75 MPH.

&&

MMATHEWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
124 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE DENHOFF            47.49N 100.25W
06/10/2016  M79 MPH          SHERIDAN           ND   MESONET

&&

MMATHEWS

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