Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
952 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Overall, the forecast is trending well and only minor changes were
made with this update, namely to ramp up PoPs a bit again based on
recent HRRR simulations. We discussed the possibility of expanding
the severe thunderstorm watch further east into Bismarck/Mandan
with SPC, but based on radar trends and some capping shown on the
00 UTC Bismarck sounding the threat appears marginal enough (but
certainly non-zero) to hold off on expanding the watch in space at
this point. We will continue to re-evaluate that possibility over
the next few hours, though.

UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Quick update to accommodate a recently-issued severe thunderstorm
watch for western and parts of central ND, which is valid through
08 UTC, per collaboration with SPC. We also increased PoPs across
much of western and central ND through 09 UTC based on the recent
trends in radar imagery, which show increasing storm coverage as
forcing attendant to a shortwave trough approaches western ND.

UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.

We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.

Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.

The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.

Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.

Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will move across western and central ND
through about 10 UTC. Local MVFR and IFR conditions and gusty
winds are expected with thunderstorms, and some could be severe
with large hail and damaging winds, especially in western and
north central ND.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
616 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-102330-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
616 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 /516 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTH...AND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-800-247-0212...OR POST IT ON OUR
FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

KS/CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1039 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             7 S PALERMO             48.24N 102.23W
06/09/2016  E1.00 INCH       MOUNTRAIL          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1040 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLAZA                   48.03N 101.96W
06/09/2016  M60 MPH          MOUNTRAIL          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSIMOSKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1042 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 N STANLEY             48.43N 102.39W
06/09/2016                   MOUNTRAIL          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO POWER POLLS DOWN.

&&

KSIMOSKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1043 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     HAIL             10 E STANLEY            48.32N 102.17W
06/09/2016  E1.75 INCH       MOUNTRAIL          ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1049 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

NDZ017-031>033-100445-
STARK ND-MCKENZIE ND-BILLINGS ND-GOLDEN VALLEY ND-
1049 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GOLDEN VALLEY...
NORTHWESTERN STARK...BILLINGS AND SOUTHWESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1145 PM CDT/1045 PM MDT/...

AT 1049 PM CDT/949 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF TROTTERS
TO 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF AMIDON. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEACH...BELFIELD...MEDORA...GOLVA...SENTINEL BUTTE...TROTTERS...SOUTH
FAIRFIELD...FAIRFIELD...FRYBURG AND ALPHA.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT/200 AM
MDT/ FOR NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4735 10405 4781 10354 4691 10299 4663 10372
      4663 10380 4659 10380 4654 10394 4705 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 212DEG 36KT 4745 10384 4665 10351

SCHILD

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