Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Bismarck, ND

492 
WWUS53 KBIS 100515
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1215 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

NDC057-100524-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-160610T0545Z/
MERCER ND-
1215 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MERCER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4815 10024 4742 10061 4750 10135 4820 10123
      4822 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 269DEG 41KT 4817 10070 4754 10091 

$$

NDC049-055-083-101-100545-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-160610T0545Z/
SHERIDAN ND-MCLEAN ND-MCHENRY ND-WARD ND-
1215 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN...NORTHEASTERN MCLEAN...SOUTHERN MCHENRY
AND SOUTHEASTERN WARD COUNTIES...

AT 1214 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF KARLSRUHE TO TURTLE LAKE...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VELVA...TURTLE LAKE...SAWYER...MAX...DRAKE...MERCER...KARLSRUHE...
COLEHARBOR...BUTTE...BENEDICT...VOLTAIRE...LOGAN...BALFOUR...KIEF...
BERGEN...RUSO...GEORGE LAKE...KRUEGER LAKE...
SIMCOE AND STRAWBERRY LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4815 10024 4742 10061 4750 10135 4820 10123
      4822 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 269DEG 41KT 4817 10070 4754 10091 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHILD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1127 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

We collaborated with SPC to expand the severe thunderstorm watch
downstream of the intense thunderstorms that were centered around
Minot at 04 UTC. The severe threat is beginning to diminish to
the west, so we also cancelled the watch for Divide, Burke, and
Williams Counties. Additional counties in western ND will likely
be able to be removed from the watch in the next 90 minutes.

UPDATE Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Overall, the forecast is trending well and only minor changes were
made with this update, namely to ramp up PoPs a bit again based on
recent HRRR simulations. We discussed the possibility of expanding
the severe thunderstorm watch further east into Bismarck/Mandan
with SPC, but based on radar trends and some capping shown on the
00 UTC Bismarck sounding the threat appears marginal enough (but
certainly non-zero) to hold off on expanding the watch in space at
this point. We will continue to re-evaluate that possibility over
the next few hours, though.

UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Quick update to accommodate a recently-issued severe thunderstorm
watch for western and parts of central ND, which is valid through
08 UTC, per collaboration with SPC. We also increased PoPs across
much of western and central ND through 09 UTC based on the recent
trends in radar imagery, which show increasing storm coverage as
forcing attendant to a shortwave trough approaches western ND.

UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.

We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.

Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.

The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.

Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.

Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will move across western and central ND
through about 10 UTC. Local MVFR and IFR conditions and gusty
winds are expected with thunderstorms, and some could be severe
with large hail and damaging winds, especially in western and
north central ND.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1130 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

NDZ003>005-010>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-110430-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1130 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 /1030 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE 3 AM CDT OR 2 AM
MDT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTH...AND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-800-247-0212...OR POST IT ON OUR
FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

NDZ001-002-009-110430-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-
1130 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN FAR NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTH...AND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CJS/KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1106 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     TSTM WND GST     MINOT AIR FORCE BASE    48.42N 101.35W
06/09/2016  M77 MPH          WARD               ND   ASOS

&&

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1112 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 PM     HEAVY RAIN       KILLDEER                47.37N 102.75W
06/09/2016  M1.02 INCH       DUNN               ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 930 PM TONIGHT

&&

KSIMOSKO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1119 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

NDZ018-019-021-100515-
MERCER ND-MCLEAN ND-DUNN ND-
1119 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN...
NORTHERN MERCER AND NORTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT/1115
PM MDT/...

AT 1118 PM CDT/1018 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RYDER
TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEULAH BAY RECREATION AREA TO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HALLIDAY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEULAH...GARRISON...HAZEN...MAX...ZAP...RIVERDALE...HALLIDAY...
GOLDEN VALLEY...DUNN CENTER...PICK CITY...DODGE...COLEHARBOR...
ROSEGLEN...HAZEN BAY RECREATION AREA...LAKE SAKAKAWEA STATE PARK...
BEULAH BAY RECREATION AREA...INDIAN HILLS RECREATION AREA...
FORT STEVENSON STATE PARK AND MCKENZIE BAY RECREATION AREA.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR LAKE SAKAKAWEA...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...
YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON
THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

CAMPERS SHOULD MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT/200
AM MDT/ FOR NORTH CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4753 10258 4785 10209 4785 10095 4757 10111
      4727 10166 4723 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 264DEG 31KT 4783 10175 4755 10188 4727 10247

SCHILD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1129 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N MINOT               48.26N 101.29W
06/09/2016  M60 MPH          WARD               ND   ASOS

&&

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1139 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HAIL             MINOT                   48.23N 101.30W
06/09/2016  E1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF MINOT.
            PUBLIC REPORT FORWARDED BY KMOT-TV

&&

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1140 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND GST     TOLLEY                  48.73N 101.83W
06/09/2016  E60 MPH          RENVILLE           ND   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWNED IN TOLLEY. ESTIMATED
            THAT ONE THIRD OF THE TOWN OF TOLLEY WAS WITHOUT POWER
            FOLLOWING THE STORM. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

CJS