Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Bismarck, ND

972 
WWUS53 KBIS 220228
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NDC053-105-220300-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-160622T0300Z/
WILLIAMS ND-MCKENZIE ND-
928 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM
CDT/900 PM MDT/ FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILLIAMS AND NORTHWESTERN MCKENZIE
COUNTIES...

AT 928 PM CDT/828 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
EAST OF EAST FAIRVIEW...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF SIDNEY...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALEXANDER AROUND 945 PM CDT. 
  ARNEGARD AROUND 1000 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE FORT
BUFORD STATE HISTORICAL SITE...CHARBONNEAU...RAWSON...TRENTON AND
CARTWRIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

&&

LAT...LON 4812 10404 4817 10330 4762 10334 4773 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 274DEG 34KT 4789 10387 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

AYD

280 
WWUS53 KBIS 220246
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NDC053-105-220300-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-160622T0300Z/
WILLIAMS ND-MCKENZIE ND-
946 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMS AND NORTHWESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTIES...

AT 946 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ALEXANDER...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF WATFORD CITY...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ARNEGARD AROUND 1000 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE RAWSON
AND CHARBONNEAU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4808 10382 4817 10330 4762 10334 4778 10378
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 272DEG 36KT 4791 10360 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

AYD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
622 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Storms continue to move through northeast Montana with some
additional storms now starting to develop over southwest North
Dakota. Strong instability along with very impressive deep layer
shear (60 to around 80 kts) remain in place. Will be monitoring
the severe threat through the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Main forecast issue in the short term period will be thunderstorm
chances late this afternoon and tonight.

Latest satellite and radar imagery is depicting thunderstorms
trying to fire off the Bighorns. Also some activity from west of
Havre MT to north of Glasgow MT. Surface analysis shows 1005mb
surface low over southeast MT with 3mb pressure falls from west
central ND into northeast MT. Currently around 1000 j/kg of cape
from southeast ND into north central MT but currently capped, and
80 knots of shear from northeast MT into west central ND. The
instability will only continue to increase this afternoon while
shear remains strong. With a strong upper low and associated
forcing tracking across north central MT at this time, think it's
only a matter of time before convection fires. Only question is
how will things evolve late this afternoon through this evening.

Of the many solutions from the mesoscale models today, one thing
remains consistent. That would be convection (either supercell or
mcs) tracking from around the Williston area...south and east
toward the Bismarck Mandan area. Various iterations are showing
additional convection north and south of this but thus one area
has been consistent. The 00Z SPC SSEO was giving an impressive
signal of strong convection centered over northwest north dakota
from 00-03 UTC this evening and with forecast flow, this would
track toward the south and east. Stronger capping and will likely
inhibit convection as we move into eastern portions of central ND.

Have heightened severe wording in our forecast products products
for this evening.

Convection moves into eastern ND for Wednesday then a quiet day on
thursday as we are in an area of shortwave ridging ahead of
another upper low that will affect the area beginning Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Short wave ridge will quickly move east across the Northern Plains
region transitioning flow aloft to southwesterly during the day on
Friday. Strong short wave upper level trough/closed low over the
Northern Rockies Friday will lead to height falls ahead of its path
and near an associated surface trough over the central and eastern
Dakotas. Instability axis with robust mucape will materialize ahead
of the surface trough along to east of Highway 83 during peak
heating. Uncertainty of whether convection will fire given the
degree of the forecast capping inversion with strong mid level waa
nosing into North Dakota. More favorable area for thunderstorms
looks to be on the edge of the cap across my northeast, which is
also where the more favorable shear is located. For now will hold
off on mentioning severe given the convective initialization
uncertainty.

Breezy conditions in the lows wake Saturday and Sunday will advect
much drier air into the region along with cooler temperatures. Left
pops in for both days, but I anticipate these being dropped in
future forecast updates. Possible wind headlines may be needed as
well this weekend, and will take a closer look over the next few
model cycles.

Broad/long wave ridge builds east for early next week, however
models show embedded impulses undercutting the ridge so will not
completey rule out chances for showers or isolated thunderstorms.
Overall precipitation coverage will be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move over western and
central North Dakota tonight into early Wednesday morning. Some of
these storms may become severe with large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
859 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NDZ001-002-009>011-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-230200-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-
MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-
BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
859 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 /759 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

NDZ003>005-012-013-230200-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-
859 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
840 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             3 S LEWIS AND CLARK STA 48.08N 103.23W
06/21/2016  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMS           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            25 MPH WINDS... TEMPERATURE FELL FROM 85 TO 75 IN 20
            MINUTES.

&&

AYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
842 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     HAIL             REGENT                  46.42N 102.56W
06/21/2016  M2.50 INCH       HETTINGER          ND   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            STILL ONGOING

&&

ZH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
846 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             7 N WATFORD CITY        47.90N 103.28W
06/21/2016  M2.75 INCH       MCKENZIE           ND   PUBLIC

            STILL ONGOING

&&

ZH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
850 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             7 N MARSHALL            47.24N 102.33W
06/21/2016  M1.75 INCH       DUNN               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY QUARTERS... FEW GOLF BALLS

&&

ZH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     HAIL             5 SSE REGENT            46.35N 102.52W
06/21/2016  M1.75 INCH       HETTINGER          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ZH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
903 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             KEENE                   47.93N 102.94W
06/21/2016  M1.50 INCH       MCKENZIE           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ZH