Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Bismarck, ND

142 
WWUS53 KBIS 220136
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
836 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NDC025-057-220215-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-160622T0215Z/
MERCER ND-DUNN ND-
836 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM
CDT/815 PM MDT/ FOR WESTERN MERCER AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTIES...

AT 835 PM CDT/735 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
DODGE...OR 21 MILES WEST OF BEULAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GOLDEN VALLEY AROUND 845 PM CDT. 
  ZAP AROUND 850 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4756 10217 4742 10179 4710 10182 4711 10232
      4726 10244
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 238DEG 50KT 4725 10224 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

250 
WWUS53 KBIS 220153
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
853 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NDC025-220202-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-160622T0215Z/
DUNN ND-
853 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4722 10211 4733 10215 4752 10207 4742 10179
      4717 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 229DEG 36KT 4737 10204 

$$

NDC057-220215-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-160622T0215Z/
MERCER ND-
853 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY...

AT 852 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
GOLDEN VALLEY...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEULAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4722 10211 4733 10215 4752 10207 4742 10179
      4717 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 229DEG 36KT 4737 10204 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

HEINERT/MARTIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
622 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Storms continue to move through northeast Montana with some
additional storms now starting to develop over southwest North
Dakota. Strong instability along with very impressive deep layer
shear (60 to around 80 kts) remain in place. Will be monitoring
the severe threat through the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Main forecast issue in the short term period will be thunderstorm
chances late this afternoon and tonight.

Latest satellite and radar imagery is depicting thunderstorms
trying to fire off the Bighorns. Also some activity from west of
Havre MT to north of Glasgow MT. Surface analysis shows 1005mb
surface low over southeast MT with 3mb pressure falls from west
central ND into northeast MT. Currently around 1000 j/kg of cape
from southeast ND into north central MT but currently capped, and
80 knots of shear from northeast MT into west central ND. The
instability will only continue to increase this afternoon while
shear remains strong. With a strong upper low and associated
forcing tracking across north central MT at this time, think it's
only a matter of time before convection fires. Only question is
how will things evolve late this afternoon through this evening.

Of the many solutions from the mesoscale models today, one thing
remains consistent. That would be convection (either supercell or
mcs) tracking from around the Williston area...south and east
toward the Bismarck Mandan area. Various iterations are showing
additional convection north and south of this but thus one area
has been consistent. The 00Z SPC SSEO was giving an impressive
signal of strong convection centered over northwest north dakota
from 00-03 UTC this evening and with forecast flow, this would
track toward the south and east. Stronger capping and will likely
inhibit convection as we move into eastern portions of central ND.

Have heightened severe wording in our forecast products products
for this evening.

Convection moves into eastern ND for Wednesday then a quiet day on
thursday as we are in an area of shortwave ridging ahead of
another upper low that will affect the area beginning Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Short wave ridge will quickly move east across the Northern Plains
region transitioning flow aloft to southwesterly during the day on
Friday. Strong short wave upper level trough/closed low over the
Northern Rockies Friday will lead to height falls ahead of its path
and near an associated surface trough over the central and eastern
Dakotas. Instability axis with robust mucape will materialize ahead
of the surface trough along to east of Highway 83 during peak
heating. Uncertainty of whether convection will fire given the
degree of the forecast capping inversion with strong mid level waa
nosing into North Dakota. More favorable area for thunderstorms
looks to be on the edge of the cap across my northeast, which is
also where the more favorable shear is located. For now will hold
off on mentioning severe given the convective initialization
uncertainty.

Breezy conditions in the lows wake Saturday and Sunday will advect
much drier air into the region along with cooler temperatures. Left
pops in for both days, but I anticipate these being dropped in
future forecast updates. Possible wind headlines may be needed as
well this weekend, and will take a closer look over the next few
model cycles.

Broad/long wave ridge builds east for early next week, however
models show embedded impulses undercutting the ridge so will not
completey rule out chances for showers or isolated thunderstorms.
Overall precipitation coverage will be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move over western and
central North Dakota tonight into early Wednesday morning. Some of
these storms may become severe with large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
612 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-222315-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-
MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
612 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 /512 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

NDZ003>005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-222315-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
612 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
655 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             1 S MEDORA              46.90N 103.53W
06/21/2016  E1.00 INCH       BILLINGS           ND   PUBLIC

            . THE DURATION OF THE HAIL EVENT WAS 6
            MINUTES.

&&

JP MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
609 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NDZ032-033-040-220045-
STARK ND-BILLINGS ND-SLOPE ND-
609 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SLOPE...STARK AND
BILLINGS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

AT 608 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES NORTHWEST OF AMIDON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
SLOPE...SOUTHWESTERN STARK AND SOUTHWESTERN BILLINGS COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4663 10361 4668 10361 4676 10306 4655 10298
      4653 10367 4663 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 260DEG 42KT 4662 10355

HEINERT/MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
742 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             16 SSW FRYBURG          46.65N 103.40W
06/21/2016  E1.50 INCH       BILLINGS           ND   PUBLIC

            WALNUT SIZED HAIL FELL FOR 10 MINUTES.

&&

JJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
754 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NDZ017-018-220130-
MCKENZIE ND-DUNN ND-
754 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DUNN AND
CENTRAL MCKENZIE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT/730 PM MDT/...

AT 753 PM CDT/653 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF ALEXANDER
TO WATFORD CITY TO NEAR THEODORE ROOSEVELT NATIONAL PARK NORTH UNIT.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WATFORD CITY AROUND 800 PM CDT.
  MANDAREE AROUND 820 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
KEENE...CHARBONNEAU... RAWSON...JOHNSONS CORNER AND CARTWRIGHT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4807 10315 4792 10268 4757 10251 4749 10327
      4768 10372 4785 10404 4790 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 255DEG 48KT 4788 10384 4780 10331 4760 10318

AYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
755 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     TSTM WND GST     AMIDON                  46.49N 103.32W
06/21/2016  E55 MPH          SLOPE              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            .

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
818 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             2 W NEW ENGLAND         46.54N 102.91W
06/21/2016  E2.50 INCH       HETTINGER          ND   STORM CHASER

            HAIL CONTINUES AT THE TIME OF THIS LSR
            ISSUANCE.

&&

JP MARTIN