Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Bismarck, ND

June 21, 2016Slope County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 21, 2016, 7:48 PM MDT for Slope County, North Dakota. It was in force for 42 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 21, 2016, 7:48 PM MDT (01:48 UTC)
Expired: Jun 21, 2016, 8:30 PM MDT
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

County Slope County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 193 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 21, 7:55 PM MDT	HAIL 1	2 Wsw Amidon, ND	LATE REPORT. HAIL FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WIND TO NEAR 50 MPH. THE DURATION OF THE HAIL EVENT WAS 10 MINUTES.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 7 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 21, 3:09 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr
Jun 21, 7:35 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -462 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1984 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 77 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 495 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

717 
WUUS53 KBIS 220148
SVRBIS
NDC087-220230-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0067.160622T0148Z-160622T0230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
748 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN SLOPE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 830 PM MDT

* AT 747 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
  OF AMIDON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  AMIDON AROUND 755 PM MDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4650 10355 4662 10310 4663 10293 4635 10293
      4634 10349
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 252DEG 40KT 4644 10345 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

HEINERT/MARTIN

1 follow-up statement

586 
WWUS53 KBIS 220224
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
824 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NDC087-220234-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-160622T0230Z/
SLOPE ND-
824 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SLOPE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 830 PM MDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4650 10355 4662 10310 4663 10293 4635 10293
      4634 10349
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 252DEG 40KT 4644 10345 

$$

HEINERT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 21, 5:22 PM MDT, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 5:22 PM MDT, 2 hours 26 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
622 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Storms continue to move through northeast Montana with some
additional storms now starting to develop over southwest North
Dakota. Strong instability along with very impressive deep layer
shear (60 to around 80 kts) remain in place. Will be monitoring
the severe threat through the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Main forecast issue in the short term period will be thunderstorm
chances late this afternoon and tonight.

Latest satellite and radar imagery is depicting thunderstorms
trying to fire off the Bighorns. Also some activity from west of
Havre MT to north of Glasgow MT. Surface analysis shows 1005mb
surface low over southeast MT with 3mb pressure falls from west
central ND into northeast MT. Currently around 1000 j/kg of cape
from southeast ND into north central MT but currently capped, and
80 knots of shear from northeast MT into west central ND. The
instability will only continue to increase this afternoon while
shear remains strong. With a strong upper low and associated
forcing tracking across north central MT at this time, think it's
only a matter of time before convection fires. Only question is
how will things evolve late this afternoon through this evening.

Of the many solutions from the mesoscale models today, one thing
remains consistent. That would be convection (either supercell or
mcs) tracking from around the Williston area...south and east
toward the Bismarck Mandan area. Various iterations are showing
additional convection north and south of this but thus one area
has been consistent. The 00Z SPC SSEO was giving an impressive
signal of strong convection centered over northwest north dakota
from 00-03 UTC this evening and with forecast flow, this would
track toward the south and east. Stronger capping and will likely
inhibit convection as we move into eastern portions of central ND.

Have heightened severe wording in our forecast products products
for this evening.

Convection moves into eastern ND for Wednesday then a quiet day on
thursday as we are in an area of shortwave ridging ahead of
another upper low that will affect the area beginning Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Short wave ridge will quickly move east across the Northern Plains
region transitioning flow aloft to southwesterly during the day on
Friday. Strong short wave upper level trough/closed low over the
Northern Rockies Friday will lead to height falls ahead of its path
and near an associated surface trough over the central and eastern
Dakotas. Instability axis with robust mucape will materialize ahead
of the surface trough along to east of Highway 83 during peak
heating. Uncertainty of whether convection will fire given the
degree of the forecast capping inversion with strong mid level waa
nosing into North Dakota. More favorable area for thunderstorms
looks to be on the edge of the cap across my northeast, which is
also where the more favorable shear is located. For now will hold
off on mentioning severe given the convective initialization
uncertainty.

Breezy conditions in the lows wake Saturday and Sunday will advect
much drier air into the region along with cooler temperatures. Left
pops in for both days, but I anticipate these being dropped in
future forecast updates. Possible wind headlines may be needed as
well this weekend, and will take a closer look over the next few
model cycles.

Broad/long wave ridge builds east for early next week, however
models show embedded impulses undercutting the ridge so will not
completey rule out chances for showers or isolated thunderstorms.
Overall precipitation coverage will be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move over western and
central North Dakota tonight into early Wednesday morning. Some of
these storms may become severe with large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 21, 5:12 PM MDT, 2 hours 36 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
612 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-222315-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-
MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
612 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 /512 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

NDZ003>005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-222315-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
612 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 21, 7:37 PM MDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
837 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             NEW ENGLAND             46.54N 102.87W
06/21/2016  M2.75 INCH       HETTINGER          ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            A FEW BASEBALL SIZE HAIL PIECES

&&

ZH

Local storm report, Jun 21, 7:38 PM MDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
838 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             1 S HETTINGER           45.99N 102.64W
06/21/2016  M3.00 INCH       ADAMS              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ZH

Local storm report, Jun 21, 7:39 PM MDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
839 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HAIL             REGENT                  46.42N 102.56W
06/21/2016  M1.50 INCH       HETTINGER          ND   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            STILL ONGOING

&&

ZH

Local storm report, Jun 21, 7:40 PM MDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
840 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             3 S LEWIS AND CLARK STA 48.08N 103.23W
06/21/2016  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMS           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            25 MPH WINDS... TEMPERATURE FELL FROM 85 TO 75 IN 20
            MINUTES.

&&

AYD

Local storm report, Jun 21, 7:42 PM MDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
842 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     HAIL             REGENT                  46.42N 102.56W
06/21/2016  M2.50 INCH       HETTINGER          ND   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            STILL ONGOING

&&

ZH

Local storm report, Jun 21, 7:46 PM MDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
846 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             7 N WATFORD CITY        47.90N 103.28W
06/21/2016  M2.75 INCH       MCKENZIE           ND   PUBLIC

            STILL ONGOING

&&

ZH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 21, 6:09 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Slope	36 min
Jun 21, 6:16 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Slope, Stark	59 min
Jun 21, 6:49 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Slope	56 min
Jun 21, 6:54 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McKenzie	36 min
Jun 21, 7:05 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Williams	55 min
Jun 21, 7:10 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Hettinger, Slope, Stark	65 min
Jun 21, 7:22 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Mercer	53 min
Jun 21, 7:22 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	McKenzie	38 min
Jun 21, 7:26 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Hettinger	34 min
Jun 21, 7:31 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Williams	20 min
Jun 21, 7:56 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Mountrail	64 min
Jun 21, 8:01 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Grant, Hettinger	59 min
Jun 21, 8:05 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer	55 min
Jun 21, 8:05 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Williams	55 min
Jun 21, 8:08 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Adams, Grant, Hettinger	37 min
Jun 21, 8:14 PM MDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	BIS	McKenzie	31 min
Jun 21, 8:20 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	BIS	Hettinger	6 hr
Jun 21, 8:22 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie, McLean, Mountrail	38 min
Jun 21, 8:37 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Grant, Sioux	23 min
Jun 21, 8:48 PM MDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	BIS	McKenzie	27 min
Jun 21, 8:49 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Dunn, McLean	26 min
Jun 21, 9:02 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Sioux	43 min
Jun 21, 9:10 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	McKenzie	35 min
Jun 21, 9:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer, Ward	60 min
Jun 21, 9:40 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie, McLean, Mercer, Mountrail, Ward	37 min
Jun 21, 10:16 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer, Oliver	59 min
Jun 21, 10:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey, LaMoure, Logan, McIntosh	48 min
Jun 21, 11:07 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, McLean, Mercer, Morton, Oliver	38 min
Jun 21, 11:30 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Kidder, Morton, Sioux	60 min
Jun 22, 12:32 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, LaMoure, Logan, McIntosh	58 min
Jun 22, 1:27 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey	48 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.