Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Amarillo, TX

227 
WWUS54 KAMA 290253
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
953 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXC211-290345-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-160429T0345Z/
HEMPHILL TX-
953 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN HEMPHILL COUNTY...

AT 952 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CANADIAN TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NEW MOBEETIE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE MARVIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 10052 3571 10051 3584 10052 3593 10000
      3563 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 266DEG 29KT 3585 10050 3559 10050 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BRB

737 
WWUS54 KAMA 290258
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
958 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXC211-290345-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-160429T0345Z/
HEMPHILL TX-
958 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN HEMPHILL COUNTY...

AT 957 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CANADIAN TO 5 MILES NORTH OF NEW
MOBEETIE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE MARVIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 10048 3574 10045 3585 10046 3593 10000
      3563 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 260DEG 33KT 3586 10042 3560 10042 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BRB

821 
WWUS54 KAMA 290304
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1004 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXC211-290345-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-160429T0345Z/
HEMPHILL TX-
1004 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY...

AT 1004 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANADIAN TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BRISCOE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS POSSIBLE. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE MARVIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 10042 3587 10037 3593 10000 3563 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 257DEG 26KT 3588 10032 3564 10038 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BRB

942 
WWUS54 KAMA 290315
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1015 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXC211-290345-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-160429T0345Z/
HEMPHILL TX-
1015 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY...

AT 1014 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF LAKE MARVIN TO 4 MILES NORTH OF
BRISCOE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES IS POSSIBLE. HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE MARVIN.

A 61 MPH WIND GUST OCCURRED 17 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CANADIAN AT
952 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 10042 3587 10037 3593 10000 3563 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 263DEG 31KT 3589 10025 3565 10031 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BRB

088 
WWUS54 KAMA 290330
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1030 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXC211-290345-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-160429T0345Z/
HEMPHILL TX-
1030 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY...

AT 1030 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LAKE MARVIN TO ALLISON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES IS POSSIBLE. HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS ALSO POSSIBLE. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE MARVIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 10022 3575 10021 3589 10026 3593 10000
      3563 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 266DEG 27KT 3589 10016 3563 10011 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BRB

715 
WWUS54 KAMA 290341
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1041 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXC211-290350-
/O.EXP.KAMA.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-160429T0345Z/
HEMPHILL TX-
1041 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 PM CDT...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3564 10022 3575 10021 3589 10026 3593 10000
      3563 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0337Z 263DEG 31KT 3589 10016 3563 10011 

$$

BRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
653 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEAST AND EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN MOISTURE
SUPPLY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TERMINALS WILL BE
SPARED FROM STRONGEST CONVECTION IN THE NEAR TERM.  AS LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT CLEARING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT KDHT AND KAMA AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  KGUY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR MVFR THROUGH END OF FORECAST.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-27
CORRIDOR. EARLIER THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT (1000-1500 MLCAPE ON MESOANALYSIS). EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT (50-55 KNOTS) FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THIS THREAT
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THE
WINDOW FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD MOST LIKELY BE BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 PM AND 10 PM WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY INCREASES TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2...BUT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. AFTERWARDS THE THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LASTING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS CONVECTION MOVES NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

A PEAK AT WHAT IS IN SO FAR FROM THE SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING REVEALS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING ABOVE THIS YIELDING 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND
150 M2/S2. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN A SHALLOWER NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS WELL AS
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND MARGINAL LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE VWP AND MODIFY THE SOUNDING AS
SURFACE OBS CHANGE/MOISTURE INCREASES. ALSO NOTED IN THE FIRST
GLANCE OF THE SOUNDING IS THAT 100 MB ML PARCELS REMAINED SLIGHTLY
CAPPED. THIS CAN BE EASILY BE OVERCOME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL UPDATE WITH ANY PERTINENT
INFORMATION FROM THE COMPLETED 21Z SOUNDING AND/OR OTHER
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS NECESSARY.

BRB

SHORT TERM...
SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FROM BRB.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SLIDING EAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND PUT THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION...THUS
CAUSING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THE MID LEVELS WILL SEE DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND THUS ALLOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT THESE LEVELS FOR
STORMS THAT FORM. THIS WILL CREATE MORE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGER HAIL AS DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE COOLER AND SLOW MELTING. CONFIDENCE
ON THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS OUTCOME AS THE
SCENARIO OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BEING SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE SEEMS JUST AS PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY SINCE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
LIKELY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE OUTCOME. IF THE LATTER OPTION DOES
PLAY OUT...FORECASTED TEMPS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED AS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE FIRST LOW MOVE NORTH TO
KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING WILL BE LOST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PANHANDLES A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT AND SEE SOME SUN.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH DROPPED INTO THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT MONDAY AND BEYOND ON
TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW...HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE THAT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DRY SPELL AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

BEAT

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  70  42  66  42 /  60  30  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  51  58  42  62  39 /  80  70  30   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              44  54  34  58  35 /  80  70  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  55  68  46  66  45 /  70  50  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  70  40  65  41 /  50  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  50  72  39  67  41 /  50  20  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               54  74  45  69  45 /  60  40  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  62  37  62  38 /  60  40  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  48  56  41  62  41 /  80  70  30   5  10
HEREFORD TX                46  73  40  68  41 /  40  20   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                53  62  45  65  43 /  70  70  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   53  67  44  64  43 /  70  50  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                56  73  47  70  46 /  60  50  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              58  78  48  73  47 /  70  50  10   5   5

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN LAPS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS NOTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
CONSENSUS INDICATING MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS REACHING WELL INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS ALREADY AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS CHILDRESS AND MATADOR. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK IF NOT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND BEHAVIOR OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

DEEP MIXING AND SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
OUR AREA SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WE HAVE MADE IS TO
ADD PRECIPITATION TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE COVERGENT AND MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR MOVING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM NEAR OR SOUTH OF
DALHART TO THE AMARILLO AREA AND EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING DRYLINE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING. TWO CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE 1.) INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO
STRENGTHENING 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 25 KNOTS (THERE IS
QUITE A SPREAD IN 850 MB SPEEDS AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE) AND 2.) CONTINUED MOISTENING RESULTING IN
LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM...POSSIBLY LOWER.

WE WILL PROVIDE AN UPDATED DISCUSSION FOCUSING ON SEVERE POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE FURTHER ANALYSIS IS COMPLETED AND AS WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. A SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING IS BEING
CONSIDERED. WE ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS LATER TODAY AND MAY BE ABLE TO CAPTURE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SUFFICIENTLY WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING. SO AN EARLIER
SOUNDING MAY BE OF LITTLE VALUE.

CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OCCURS ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER ARIZONA. ASCENT IS STRONGEST AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES ARE LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LATE INTO THE NIGHT. ANY SURFACE
BASED STORMS AND WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND BEFORE DECOUPLING INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER WHICH THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HAIL.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  70  42  66  42 /  60  30  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  51  58  42  62  39 /  80  70  30   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              44  54  34  58  35 /  80  70  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  55  68  46  66  45 /  70  50  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  70  40  65  41 /  50  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  50  72  39  67  41 /  50  20  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               54  74  45  69  45 /  60  40  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  62  37  62  38 /  60  40  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  48  56  41  62  41 /  80  70  30   5  10
HEREFORD TX                46  73  40  68  41 /  40  20   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                53  62  45  65  43 /  70  70  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   53  67  44  64  43 /  70  50  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                56  73  47  70  46 /  60  50  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              58  78  48  73  47 /  70  50  10   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
419 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-291000-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
419 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUING TO BE A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT AND EXPECT
ACTIVATION THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

BEAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
840 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BORGER                  35.66N 101.40W
04/28/2016                   HUTCHINSON         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            4 INCH BRANCHES BROUGHT DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600239

COCKRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
844 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXZ019-290215-
DONLEY TX-
844 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DONLEY COUNTY UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

AT 844 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTH OF BRICE...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF CLARENDON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL  BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HAIL MAY
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLARENDON...HEDLEY...LELIA LAKE AND GREENBELT LAKE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3477 10101 3508 10089 3491 10055 3475 10079
      3475 10098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 217DEG 27KT 3480 10092

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
847 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             2 W BORGER              35.66N 101.44W
04/28/2016  E1.00 INCH       HUTCHINSON         TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600240

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
910 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXZ019-020-290245-
DONLEY TX-COLLINGSWORTH TX-
910 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLLINGSWORTH AND
EASTERN DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 909 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LELIA LAKE...OR 9 MILES EAST OF CLARENDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL  BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HAIL MAY
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HEDLEY AND LELIA LAKE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3487 10085 3518 10068 3518 10046 3496 10029
      3480 10076
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 232DEG 28KT 3490 10072

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
916 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXZ009-290245-
ROBERTS TX-
916 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTY UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

AT 915 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF CODMAN...OR 11 MILES WEST OF MIAMI...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL  BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HAIL MAY
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIAMI...LORA AND CODMAN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3562 10054 3562 10092 3578 10094 3585 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 263DEG 31KT 3570 10084

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
921 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXZ014-015-290245-
GRAY TX-WHEELER TX-
921 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHEELER AND SOUTHEASTERN
GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 921 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCLEAN...OR 18 MILES WEST OF SHAMROCK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL  BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHEELER...MCLEAN...LELA...TWITTY...NEW MOBEETIE...KELLERVILLE AND
MOBEETIE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3518 10038 3518 10068 3556 10054 3551 10029
      3535 10013
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 221DEG 46KT 3518 10056

BRB