Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Amarillo, TX

April 28, 20164 counties in Texas

NWS Amarillo, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 28, 2016, 7:15 PM CDT for 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 51 min. 10 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 28, 2016, 7:15 PM CDT (00:15 UTC)
Expired: Apr 28, 2016, 8:06 PM CDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Amarillo, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 2.5 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

Counties Carson County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Potter County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 28, 7:20 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	2 S Masterson, TX
Apr 28, 7:49 PM CDT	HAIL 0.75	Fritch, TX
Apr 28, 7:51 PM CDT	HAIL 1	1 N Fritch, TX	AT DOUBLE DIAMOND
Apr 28, 7:55 PM CDT	HAIL 1	1 S Fritch, TX
Apr 28, 7:58 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Fritch, TX	AT LAKE MEREDITH HARBOR
Apr 28, 7:59 PM CDT	HAIL 1.25	Fritch, TX
Apr 28, 8:01 PM CDT	HAIL 1	4 S Fritch, TX	QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED SOUTH OF FRITCH. REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.
Apr 28, 8:03 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Fritch, TX	DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEGINNING TO COVER ROAD IN FRITCH WITH MODERATE RAIN. NO FLOODING NOTICED AT THIS TIME WITH IT BEING MORE HAIL THAN RAIN.
Apr 28, 8:08 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	Fritch, TX
Apr 28, 8:09 PM CDT	HAIL 1	3 W Borger, TX	IN BUENA VISTA

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 7 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 36 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 28, 4:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 38 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 699 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1006 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 290 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 462 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.7
Supercell composite: 12.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

794 
WUUS54 KAMA 290015
SVRAMA
TXC065-233-341-375-290130-
/O.NEW.KAMA.SV.W.0047.160429T0015Z-160429T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
715 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
  NORTHWESTERN CARSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
  NORTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 714 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
  MASTERSON...OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF DUMAS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. HAIL MAY 
           ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BORGER...FRITCH...SANFORD...MASTERSON AND LAKE MEREDITH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 10203 3565 10205 3578 10144 3545 10144
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 266DEG 21KT 3557 10195 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BRB

3 follow-up statements

295 
WWUS54 KAMA 290020
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
720 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXC065-233-341-375-290130-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-160429T0130Z/
MOORE TX-CARSON TX-POTTER TX-HUTCHINSON TX-
720 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOORE...NORTHWESTERN CARSON...NORTHEASTERN POTTER
AND SOUTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTIES...

AT 720 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MASTERSON...OR
19 MILES SOUTH OF DUMAS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. HAIL MAY 
         ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BORGER...FRITCH...SANFORD...MASTERSON AND LAKE MEREDITH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 10199 3566 10202 3578 10144 3546 10144
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 264DEG 23KT 3559 10192 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BRB

831 
WWUS54 KAMA 290029
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
729 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXC065-233-341-375-290130-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-160429T0130Z/
MOORE TX-CARSON TX-POTTER TX-HUTCHINSON TX-
729 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOORE...NORTHWESTERN CARSON...NORTHEASTERN POTTER
AND SOUTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTIES...

AT 729 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MASTERSON...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF DUMAS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. HAIL MAY 
         ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BORGER...FRITCH...SANFORD AND LAKE MEREDITH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 10189 3567 10195 3578 10144 3548 10144
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 266DEG 21KT 3559 10185 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BRB

615 
WWUS54 KAMA 290106
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
806 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXC065-233-341-375-290114-
/O.CAN.KAMA.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-160429T0130Z/
MOORE TX-CARSON TX-POTTER TX-HUTCHINSON TX-
806 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOORE...
NORTHWESTERN CARSON...NORTHEASTERN POTTER AND SOUTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN HUTCHINSON COUNTY INCLUDING THE CITY OF FRITCH AND BORGER
AND NORTHERN CARSON COUNTY. 

LAT...LON 3550 10189 3567 10195 3578 10144 3548 10144
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 266DEG 21KT 3560 10159 

$$

BRB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 28, 6:53 PM CDT, 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 28, 6:53 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
653 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEAST AND EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN MOISTURE
SUPPLY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TERMINALS WILL BE
SPARED FROM STRONGEST CONVECTION IN THE NEAR TERM.  AS LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT CLEARING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT KDHT AND KAMA AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  KGUY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR MVFR THROUGH END OF FORECAST.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-27
CORRIDOR. EARLIER THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT (1000-1500 MLCAPE ON MESOANALYSIS). EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT (50-55 KNOTS) FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THIS THREAT
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THE
WINDOW FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD MOST LIKELY BE BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 PM AND 10 PM WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY INCREASES TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2...BUT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. AFTERWARDS THE THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LASTING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS CONVECTION MOVES NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

A PEAK AT WHAT IS IN SO FAR FROM THE SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING REVEALS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING ABOVE THIS YIELDING 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND
150 M2/S2. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN A SHALLOWER NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS WELL AS
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND MARGINAL LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE VWP AND MODIFY THE SOUNDING AS
SURFACE OBS CHANGE/MOISTURE INCREASES. ALSO NOTED IN THE FIRST
GLANCE OF THE SOUNDING IS THAT 100 MB ML PARCELS REMAINED SLIGHTLY
CAPPED. THIS CAN BE EASILY BE OVERCOME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL UPDATE WITH ANY PERTINENT
INFORMATION FROM THE COMPLETED 21Z SOUNDING AND/OR OTHER
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS NECESSARY.

BRB

SHORT TERM...
SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FROM BRB.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SLIDING EAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND PUT THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION...THUS
CAUSING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THE MID LEVELS WILL SEE DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND THUS ALLOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT THESE LEVELS FOR
STORMS THAT FORM. THIS WILL CREATE MORE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGER HAIL AS DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE COOLER AND SLOW MELTING. CONFIDENCE
ON THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS OUTCOME AS THE
SCENARIO OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BEING SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE SEEMS JUST AS PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY SINCE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
LIKELY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE OUTCOME. IF THE LATTER OPTION DOES
PLAY OUT...FORECASTED TEMPS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED AS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE FIRST LOW MOVE NORTH TO
KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING WILL BE LOST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PANHANDLES A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT AND SEE SOME SUN.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH DROPPED INTO THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT MONDAY AND BEYOND ON
TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW...HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE THAT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DRY SPELL AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

BEAT

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  70  42  66  42 /  60  30  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  51  58  42  62  39 /  80  70  30   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              44  54  34  58  35 /  80  70  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  55  68  46  66  45 /  70  50  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  70  40  65  41 /  50  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  50  72  39  67  41 /  50  20  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               54  74  45  69  45 /  60  40  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  62  37  62  38 /  60  40  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  48  56  41  62  41 /  80  70  30   5  10
HEREFORD TX                46  73  40  68  41 /  40  20   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                53  62  45  65  43 /  70  70  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   53  67  44  64  43 /  70  50  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                56  73  47  70  46 /  60  50  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              58  78  48  73  47 /  70  50  10   5   5

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN LAPS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS NOTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
CONSENSUS INDICATING MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS REACHING WELL INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS ALREADY AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS CHILDRESS AND MATADOR. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK IF NOT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND BEHAVIOR OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

DEEP MIXING AND SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
OUR AREA SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WE HAVE MADE IS TO
ADD PRECIPITATION TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE COVERGENT AND MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR MOVING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM NEAR OR SOUTH OF
DALHART TO THE AMARILLO AREA AND EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING DRYLINE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING. TWO CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE 1.) INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO
STRENGTHENING 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 25 KNOTS (THERE IS
QUITE A SPREAD IN 850 MB SPEEDS AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE) AND 2.) CONTINUED MOISTENING RESULTING IN
LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM...POSSIBLY LOWER.

WE WILL PROVIDE AN UPDATED DISCUSSION FOCUSING ON SEVERE POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE FURTHER ANALYSIS IS COMPLETED AND AS WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. A SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING IS BEING
CONSIDERED. WE ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS LATER TODAY AND MAY BE ABLE TO CAPTURE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SUFFICIENTLY WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING. SO AN EARLIER
SOUNDING MAY BE OF LITTLE VALUE.

CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OCCURS ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER ARIZONA. ASCENT IS STRONGEST AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES ARE LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LATE INTO THE NIGHT. ANY SURFACE
BASED STORMS AND WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND BEFORE DECOUPLING INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER WHICH THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HAIL.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  70  42  66  42 /  60  30  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  51  58  42  62  39 /  80  70  30   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              44  54  34  58  35 /  80  70  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  55  68  46  66  45 /  70  50  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  70  40  65  41 /  50  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  50  72  39  67  41 /  50  20  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               54  74  45  69  45 /  60  40  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  62  37  62  38 /  60  40  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  48  56  41  62  41 /  80  70  30   5  10
HEREFORD TX                46  73  40  68  41 /  40  20   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                53  62  45  65  43 /  70  70  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   53  67  44  64  43 /  70  50  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                56  73  47  70  46 /  60  50  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              58  78  48  73  47 /  70  50  10   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/10

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 28, 4:19 PM CDT, 2 hours 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
419 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-291000-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
419 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUING TO BE A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT AND EXPECT
ACTIVATION THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

BEAT

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 28, 5:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
558 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXZ009-013-014-282330-
ROBERTS TX-GRAY TX-CARSON TX-
558 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARSON...
SOUTHWESTERN ROBERTS AND NORTHWESTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PAMPA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL  BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HAIL MAY
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAMPA...CODMAN AND KINGSMILL.

LAT...LON 3542 10094 3550 10117 3563 10110 3563 10109
      3565 10109 3581 10100 3568 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 212DEG 22KT 3559 10097

MB

Special weather statement, Apr 28, 6:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
603 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXZ011-012-282330-
OLDHAM TX-POTTER TX-
603 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN POTTER AND
NORTHEASTERN OLDHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 603 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTH OF BOYS RANCH...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF VEGA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL  BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HAIL MAY
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VALLEY DE ORO AND BOYS RANCH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3545 10238 3563 10220 3563 10216 3562 10216
      3562 10188 3557 10183 3539 10183 3529 10225
      3532 10244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 233DEG 25KT 3543 10224

BRB

Local storm report, Apr 28, 6:24 PM CDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             DUMAS                   35.86N 101.97W
04/28/2016  E1.75 INCH       MOORE              TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF DUMAS WITH
            SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600220

LORENZEN

Local storm report, Apr 28, 6:39 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             SUNRAY                  36.02N 101.82W
04/28/2016  E1.50 INCH       MOORE              TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTH OF SUNRAY WITH HAIL
            ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600221

LORENZEN

Special weather statement, Apr 28, 6:49 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TXZ020-290030-
COLLINGSWORTH TX-
649 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 647 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF DODSON...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF WELLINGTON...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STORM WILL MOVE OVER DODSON PRODUCTING
HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. LARGER HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO CHILDRESS COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DODSON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3475 10033 3479 10031 3494 10000 3475 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 248DEG 36KT 3464 10020

BRB

Local storm report, Apr 28, 7:15 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
715 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     HAIL             2 S MASTERSON           35.61N 101.96W
04/28/2016  E1.25 INCH       POTTER             TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED SOUTH OF MASTERSON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600222

LORENZEN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Amarillo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 28, 8:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Hansford, Hutchinson, Ochiltree, Roberts	75 min
Apr 28, 8:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Carson, Gray, Hutchinson, Roberts	71 min
Apr 28, 8:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Donley	31 min
Apr 28, 9:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Donley	35 min
Apr 28, 9:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Roberts	29 min
Apr 28, 9:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Roberts	42 min
Apr 28, 9:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Wheeler	24 min
Apr 28, 9:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Hemphill	64 min
Apr 28, 9:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Collingsworth	31 min
Apr 28, 10:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Hutchinson	24 min
Apr 28, 11:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Dallam	28 min
Apr 28, 11:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Dallam	44 min
Apr 28, 11:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Dallam	47 min
Apr 29, 12:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Dallam, Sherman	39 min
Apr 29, 1:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Sherman	43 min
Apr 29, 1:39 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Hansford, Sherman	26 min
Apr 29, 2:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Moore	38 min
Apr 29, 2:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Moore	48 min
Apr 29, 2:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Ochiltree	52 min
Apr 29, 3:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Hansford, Moore, Sherman	39 min
Apr 29, 3:50 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Ochiltree	55 min
Apr 29, 3:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Lipscomb, Ochiltree	21 min
Apr 29, 4:07 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Hutchinson, Moore	38 min
Apr 29, 5:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Potter, Randall	43 min
Apr 29, 6:27 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Carson	48 min
Apr 29, 6:36 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Oldham	24 min
Apr 29, 7:36 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	AMA	Potter, Randall	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.