Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Amarillo, TX

351 
WWUS54 KAMA 140148
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
848 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXC065-375-140200-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-160614T0200Z/
CARSON TX-POTTER TX-
848 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CARSON AND NORTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 847 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRITCH TO 7 MILES WEST OF
PANHANDLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES IS POSSIBLE. 
         PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANHANDLE AND FRITCH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3536 10160 3539 10172 3543 10173 3562 10177
      3562 10138 3534 10137
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 270DEG 22KT 3556 10165 3538 10150 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
502 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

.Update...
We have locally extended the Tornado Watch further south into Oldham
and Deaf Smith counties. Deep layer shear will be sufficient for
thunderstorm organization and supercell development across this area
with around 30-35 knots of 0-6 km Bulk shear. One storm has recently
displayed severe characteristics on radar near Adrian, and another
over far southern Hartley County has shown increasing deep rotation.
Low level shear is not particularly strong in this area so the
tornado threat is minimal, so the focus is primarily hail and wind.
MLCAPE of near 3,000 will support robust updrafts capable of large
hail.

Further north, deep layer shear values are stronger with 35-45 knots
seen on SPC Mesoanalysis are even more supportive of organized
convection. However, trends in the cumulus field suggest some
subsidence/CIN remains and this will limit the threat in the near
term. Across northeast New Mexico, on the leading edge of more
substantial ascent from approaching shortwave, thunderstorms have
been able to organize into a line. Given orientation of shear
vectors these storms should maintain some level of semi-discreteness
as they move into the northwest portions of our area. The main
threat will be hail and especially wind once upscale growth and a
maturing cold pool occur. The tornado threat is present but minimal
given limited low level shear and evolving storm mode. Enhancement
of low level shear near pre-existing boundaries from morning
convection and slight increase in low level jet this evening may be
when a tornado or two occurs, if one occurs at all. Again, even in
the northwestern portion of the area, the emphasis is on wind and to
a lesser degree marginally severe hail.

BRB

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 237 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/

Short Term...
Latest water vapor channel imagery clearly shows a fairly
substantial shortwave trough over southwest Utah moving
northeastward. Large scale ascent is increasing across New Mexico
and Colorado as a result, and this lift should begin to overspread
our area later this afternoon. On the northeast periphery of mid-
upper ridging, an MCS moved through the northeast and eastern
Panhandles early this morning. An outflow boundary spawn by this
thunderstorm complex moved southwest through the area this morning
bringing stratus to much of the area that has persisted in some
locations into early afternoon. East-northeasterly winds immediately
behind the boundary have become more southeasterly across the
southern portion of the Texas Panhandle and these should strengthen
as lee trough deepens in response to the approaching trough.
Plentiful moisture is present and as diabatic heating continues
instability will grow.

The 12z sounding is probably too warm around 850-700 mb given closer
proximity of ridge axis early this morning. Ascent from approaching
trough should cool this lessening convective temperatures. But,
taken literally, the convective temperature would be in the mid 90s.
Latest visible satellite and visual observations from the NWS office
shows stratocumulus with little vertical development yet, which
makes sense given the above. Further west near and just east of the
Rockies and just east onto the western end of the Raton Mesa
convection has already developed, which seems to line up with
leading edge of more substantial ascent from the approaching
shortwave. Some additional development ahead of this seems possible
as gradual cooling aloft occurs and convective temperatures are
reached. A moderately unstable environment (2,000-2,500 J/kg MLCAPE)
later this afternoon in additional to increasing storm depth shear
(35-45 knots) as mid-upper speed max overspreads the area should
support organized storms and a severe threat. The best alignment of
shear and instability is expected to be across roughly the northern
half of the area, including the northern Texas Panhandle and the
Oklahoma Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary through, although low level veering could support a tornado
or two. Limiting factors for tornado will be 1.) uncertainty on
storm mode (upscale growth into an MCS may occur before or shortly
after entering our area), 2.) modest low-level jet strengthening at
best this evening.

Storms should progress enough to limit the heavy rainfall amounts
and flooding threat, although PWAT values in the models are quite
high. QPF amounts were increased above most guidance. Thunderstorms
should move west to east across the area through evening and early
night exiting by morning. Winds will shift to northwesterly later
tonight behind an eastward shifting surface trough as the mid-upper
shortwave moves northeast away from the area.

We will continue to monitor trends and further diagnose pre-existing
boundaries from early morning convection that may locally augment
shear and result in a higher severe/tornado threat, especially with
any convection that remains discrete/supercellular into the evening
hours. Mesoscale discussions will be sent as needed.

Long Term...
By Tuesday, heights begin to rise across the Panhandles as an upper
level ridge slowly develops. The result is a fairly warm and dry
forecast through the weekend. In fact, there is potential to meet
heat advisory criteria (105 degrees on the Caprock, and 110 degrees
off of the Caprock) Friday and Saturday via either the ambient air
temperatures or via heat index. Daily high temperatures at the base
of Palo Duro Canyon will likely range from 100 to 108 (heat index
values will also be in this range) as early as tomorrow afternoon.
So if you have outdoor activities planned over the next several days
be sure to stay hydrated especially if you plan to hike in the
Canyon.

While the extended portion of the forecast is expected to remain
dry, there is some suggestion that weak embedded shortwaves on the
periphery of the ridge could allow for isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the heat of the day on Wednesday and
Thursday. For now, have kept 10% to 20% chances for the afternoon
hours of both days but confidence on occurrence is low.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

17/3

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
238 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-140745-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
238 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS, GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 70 MPH, AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES BETWEEN
100 AND 108 AT THE BASE OF PALO DURO CANYON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             VALLEY DE ORO           35.45N 102.11W
06/13/2016  E2.00 INCH       POTTER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS WAS BEGINNING TO
            FALL IN VALLEY DE ORO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600566

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             VALLEY DE ORO           35.45N 102.11W
06/13/2016  E1.25 INCH       POTTER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600567

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             4 WNW CHANNING          35.70N 102.40W
06/13/2016  M2.50 INCH       HARTLEY            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS WAS STILL FALLING
            NORTHWEST OF CHANNING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600568

FENNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
716 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ011-016-140045-
OLDHAM TX-DEAF SMITH TX-
716 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DEAF SMITH AND
CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 715 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHANNING TO 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ADRIAN TO 7 MILES EAST OF GLENRIO. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VEGA AND ADRIAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3536 10272 3562 10262 3563 10238 3563 10225
      3530 10232 3506 10262 3507 10302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 234DEG 21KT 3558 10254 3531 10262 3516 10288

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
729 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             5 S HARTLEY             35.81N 102.40W
06/13/2016  E0.88 INCH       HARTLEY            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600569

CE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
745 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

OKZ002-003-140130-
BEAVER OK-TEXAS OK-
745 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN BEAVER
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 745 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM TYRONE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARDESTY.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAVER...HOOKER...TYRONE...FORGAN...HARDESTY...BRYANS CORNER...
MOCANE...TURPIN...ADAMS...FLORIS...BALKO...BOYD AND BAKER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE PANHANDLE
OF OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3650 10063 3650 10153 3676 10132 3700 10120
      3700 10028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 266DEG 38KT 3697 10105 3654 10134

BRB