Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
502 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

.Update...
We have locally extended the Tornado Watch further south into Oldham
and Deaf Smith counties. Deep layer shear will be sufficient for
thunderstorm organization and supercell development across this area
with around 30-35 knots of 0-6 km Bulk shear. One storm has recently
displayed severe characteristics on radar near Adrian, and another
over far southern Hartley County has shown increasing deep rotation.
Low level shear is not particularly strong in this area so the
tornado threat is minimal, so the focus is primarily hail and wind.
MLCAPE of near 3,000 will support robust updrafts capable of large
hail.

Further north, deep layer shear values are stronger with 35-45 knots
seen on SPC Mesoanalysis are even more supportive of organized
convection. However, trends in the cumulus field suggest some
subsidence/CIN remains and this will limit the threat in the near
term. Across northeast New Mexico, on the leading edge of more
substantial ascent from approaching shortwave, thunderstorms have
been able to organize into a line. Given orientation of shear
vectors these storms should maintain some level of semi-discreteness
as they move into the northwest portions of our area. The main
threat will be hail and especially wind once upscale growth and a
maturing cold pool occur. The tornado threat is present but minimal
given limited low level shear and evolving storm mode. Enhancement
of low level shear near pre-existing boundaries from morning
convection and slight increase in low level jet this evening may be
when a tornado or two occurs, if one occurs at all. Again, even in
the northwestern portion of the area, the emphasis is on wind and to
a lesser degree marginally severe hail.

BRB

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 237 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/

Short Term...
Latest water vapor channel imagery clearly shows a fairly
substantial shortwave trough over southwest Utah moving
northeastward. Large scale ascent is increasing across New Mexico
and Colorado as a result, and this lift should begin to overspread
our area later this afternoon. On the northeast periphery of mid-
upper ridging, an MCS moved through the northeast and eastern
Panhandles early this morning. An outflow boundary spawn by this
thunderstorm complex moved southwest through the area this morning
bringing stratus to much of the area that has persisted in some
locations into early afternoon. East-northeasterly winds immediately
behind the boundary have become more southeasterly across the
southern portion of the Texas Panhandle and these should strengthen
as lee trough deepens in response to the approaching trough.
Plentiful moisture is present and as diabatic heating continues
instability will grow.

The 12z sounding is probably too warm around 850-700 mb given closer
proximity of ridge axis early this morning. Ascent from approaching
trough should cool this lessening convective temperatures. But,
taken literally, the convective temperature would be in the mid 90s.
Latest visible satellite and visual observations from the NWS office
shows stratocumulus with little vertical development yet, which
makes sense given the above. Further west near and just east of the
Rockies and just east onto the western end of the Raton Mesa
convection has already developed, which seems to line up with
leading edge of more substantial ascent from the approaching
shortwave. Some additional development ahead of this seems possible
as gradual cooling aloft occurs and convective temperatures are
reached. A moderately unstable environment (2,000-2,500 J/kg MLCAPE)
later this afternoon in additional to increasing storm depth shear
(35-45 knots) as mid-upper speed max overspreads the area should
support organized storms and a severe threat. The best alignment of
shear and instability is expected to be across roughly the northern
half of the area, including the northern Texas Panhandle and the
Oklahoma Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary through, although low level veering could support a tornado
or two. Limiting factors for tornado will be 1.) uncertainty on
storm mode (upscale growth into an MCS may occur before or shortly
after entering our area), 2.) modest low-level jet strengthening at
best this evening.

Storms should progress enough to limit the heavy rainfall amounts
and flooding threat, although PWAT values in the models are quite
high. QPF amounts were increased above most guidance. Thunderstorms
should move west to east across the area through evening and early
night exiting by morning. Winds will shift to northwesterly later
tonight behind an eastward shifting surface trough as the mid-upper
shortwave moves northeast away from the area.

We will continue to monitor trends and further diagnose pre-existing
boundaries from early morning convection that may locally augment
shear and result in a higher severe/tornado threat, especially with
any convection that remains discrete/supercellular into the evening
hours. Mesoscale discussions will be sent as needed.

Long Term...
By Tuesday, heights begin to rise across the Panhandles as an upper
level ridge slowly develops. The result is a fairly warm and dry
forecast through the weekend. In fact, there is potential to meet
heat advisory criteria (105 degrees on the Caprock, and 110 degrees
off of the Caprock) Friday and Saturday via either the ambient air
temperatures or via heat index. Daily high temperatures at the base
of Palo Duro Canyon will likely range from 100 to 108 (heat index
values will also be in this range) as early as tomorrow afternoon.
So if you have outdoor activities planned over the next several days
be sure to stay hydrated especially if you plan to hike in the
Canyon.

While the extended portion of the forecast is expected to remain
dry, there is some suggestion that weak embedded shortwaves on the
periphery of the ridge could allow for isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the heat of the day on Wednesday and
Thursday. For now, have kept 10% to 20% chances for the afternoon
hours of both days but confidence on occurrence is low.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

17/3

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
238 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-140745-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
238 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS, GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 70 MPH, AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES BETWEEN
100 AND 108 AT THE BASE OF PALO DURO CANYON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1005 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     HAIL             3 W CANYON              34.98N 101.98W
06/13/2016  M1.00 INCH       RANDALL            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600576

LORENZEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1006 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 PM     HAIL             8 SW AMARILLO           35.12N 101.92W
06/13/2016  E1.75 INCH       RANDALL            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600577

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1014 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HAIL             5 N CANYON              35.06N 101.92W
06/13/2016  M1.25 INCH       RANDALL            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600578

LORENZEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1040 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ009-010-014-015-019-140415-
ROBERTS TX-GRAY TX-DONLEY TX-WHEELER TX-HEMPHILL TX-
1040 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHEELER...EASTERN
ROBERTS...GRAY...HEMPHILL AND NORTHERN DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM
CDT...

AT 1039 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANADIAN TO 4 MILES
EAST OF LORA TO LAKE MCCLELLAN. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CANADIAN...CLARENDON...MIAMI...BRISCOE...WHEELER...MCLEAN...LEFORS...
HOWARDWICK...LAKE MCCLELLAN...LAKE MARVIN...LORA...GLAZIER...
GREENBELT LAKE...ALANREED...NEW MOBEETIE...KELLERVILLE AND MOBEETIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3533 10022 3518 10046 3518 10054 3513 10054
      3479 10109 3536 10108 3563 10070 3606 10068
      3606 10000 3600 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 253DEG 36KT 3597 10047 3574 10048 3521 10086

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1041 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ018-140415-
ARMSTRONG TX-
1041 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ARMSTRONG COUNTY UNTIL
1115 PM CDT...

AT 1041 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF WAYSIDE...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDE...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN ARMSTRONG
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3481 10163 3499 10162 3501 10111 3476 10112
      3475 10112 3475 10116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 272DEG 23KT 3490 10155

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1126 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ010-014-015-018>020-140530-
ARMSTRONG TX-GRAY TX-DONLEY TX-WHEELER TX-HEMPHILL TX-
COLLINGSWORTH TX-
1126 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLLINGSWORTH...SOUTHEASTERN
ARMSTRONG...WHEELER...EASTERN GRAY...HEMPHILL AND DONLEY COUNTIES
UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1123 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF DURHAM TO 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SHAMROCK TO NEAR LELA TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRICE.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
NICKLE SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 287.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WELLINGTON...CLARENDON...SHAMROCK...BRISCOE...WHEELER...MCLEAN...
HOWARDWICK...HEDLEY...DODSON...LUTIE...LAKE MCCLELLAN...LELA...
LELIA LAKE...TWITTY...SAMNORWOOD...QUAIL...LAKE MARVIN...DOZIER...
ALLISON AND GREENBELT LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 10132 3606 10013 3605 10000 3475 10000
      3475 10123
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 274DEG 26KT 3581 10004 3526 10028 3520 10038
3480 10108

MJG