Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Amarillo, TX

971 
WWUS54 KAMA 132252
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
552 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXC111-205-132330-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-160613T2330Z/
HARTLEY TX-DALLAM TX-
552 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL HARTLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN DALLAM COUNTIES...

AT 551 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DALHART TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HARTLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES IS POSSIBLE. 
         PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DALHART AND HARTLEY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3586 10216 3562 10263 3566 10289 3612 10264
      3624 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 215DEG 26KT 3587 10269 3596 10234 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BRB

318 
WWUS54 KAMA 132309
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXC111-205-132330-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-160613T2330Z/
HARTLEY TX-DALLAM TX-
609 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL HARTLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN DALLAM COUNTIES...

AT 609 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARE TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HARTLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES IS POSSIBLE.
         HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DALHART AND HARTLEY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3566 10255 3576 10284 3612 10264 3624 10216
      3586 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 201DEG 21KT 3600 10283 3599 10227 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
502 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

.Update...
We have locally extended the Tornado Watch further south into Oldham
and Deaf Smith counties. Deep layer shear will be sufficient for
thunderstorm organization and supercell development across this area
with around 30-35 knots of 0-6 km Bulk shear. One storm has recently
displayed severe characteristics on radar near Adrian, and another
over far southern Hartley County has shown increasing deep rotation.
Low level shear is not particularly strong in this area so the
tornado threat is minimal, so the focus is primarily hail and wind.
MLCAPE of near 3,000 will support robust updrafts capable of large
hail.

Further north, deep layer shear values are stronger with 35-45 knots
seen on SPC Mesoanalysis are even more supportive of organized
convection. However, trends in the cumulus field suggest some
subsidence/CIN remains and this will limit the threat in the near
term. Across northeast New Mexico, on the leading edge of more
substantial ascent from approaching shortwave, thunderstorms have
been able to organize into a line. Given orientation of shear
vectors these storms should maintain some level of semi-discreteness
as they move into the northwest portions of our area. The main
threat will be hail and especially wind once upscale growth and a
maturing cold pool occur. The tornado threat is present but minimal
given limited low level shear and evolving storm mode. Enhancement
of low level shear near pre-existing boundaries from morning
convection and slight increase in low level jet this evening may be
when a tornado or two occurs, if one occurs at all. Again, even in
the northwestern portion of the area, the emphasis is on wind and to
a lesser degree marginally severe hail.

BRB

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 237 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/

Short Term...
Latest water vapor channel imagery clearly shows a fairly
substantial shortwave trough over southwest Utah moving
northeastward. Large scale ascent is increasing across New Mexico
and Colorado as a result, and this lift should begin to overspread
our area later this afternoon. On the northeast periphery of mid-
upper ridging, an MCS moved through the northeast and eastern
Panhandles early this morning. An outflow boundary spawn by this
thunderstorm complex moved southwest through the area this morning
bringing stratus to much of the area that has persisted in some
locations into early afternoon. East-northeasterly winds immediately
behind the boundary have become more southeasterly across the
southern portion of the Texas Panhandle and these should strengthen
as lee trough deepens in response to the approaching trough.
Plentiful moisture is present and as diabatic heating continues
instability will grow.

The 12z sounding is probably too warm around 850-700 mb given closer
proximity of ridge axis early this morning. Ascent from approaching
trough should cool this lessening convective temperatures. But,
taken literally, the convective temperature would be in the mid 90s.
Latest visible satellite and visual observations from the NWS office
shows stratocumulus with little vertical development yet, which
makes sense given the above. Further west near and just east of the
Rockies and just east onto the western end of the Raton Mesa
convection has already developed, which seems to line up with
leading edge of more substantial ascent from the approaching
shortwave. Some additional development ahead of this seems possible
as gradual cooling aloft occurs and convective temperatures are
reached. A moderately unstable environment (2,000-2,500 J/kg MLCAPE)
later this afternoon in additional to increasing storm depth shear
(35-45 knots) as mid-upper speed max overspreads the area should
support organized storms and a severe threat. The best alignment of
shear and instability is expected to be across roughly the northern
half of the area, including the northern Texas Panhandle and the
Oklahoma Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary through, although low level veering could support a tornado
or two. Limiting factors for tornado will be 1.) uncertainty on
storm mode (upscale growth into an MCS may occur before or shortly
after entering our area), 2.) modest low-level jet strengthening at
best this evening.

Storms should progress enough to limit the heavy rainfall amounts
and flooding threat, although PWAT values in the models are quite
high. QPF amounts were increased above most guidance. Thunderstorms
should move west to east across the area through evening and early
night exiting by morning. Winds will shift to northwesterly later
tonight behind an eastward shifting surface trough as the mid-upper
shortwave moves northeast away from the area.

We will continue to monitor trends and further diagnose pre-existing
boundaries from early morning convection that may locally augment
shear and result in a higher severe/tornado threat, especially with
any convection that remains discrete/supercellular into the evening
hours. Mesoscale discussions will be sent as needed.

Long Term...
By Tuesday, heights begin to rise across the Panhandles as an upper
level ridge slowly develops. The result is a fairly warm and dry
forecast through the weekend. In fact, there is potential to meet
heat advisory criteria (105 degrees on the Caprock, and 110 degrees
off of the Caprock) Friday and Saturday via either the ambient air
temperatures or via heat index. Daily high temperatures at the base
of Palo Duro Canyon will likely range from 100 to 108 (heat index
values will also be in this range) as early as tomorrow afternoon.
So if you have outdoor activities planned over the next several days
be sure to stay hydrated especially if you plan to hike in the
Canyon.

While the extended portion of the forecast is expected to remain
dry, there is some suggestion that weak embedded shortwaves on the
periphery of the ridge could allow for isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the heat of the day on Wednesday and
Thursday. For now, have kept 10% to 20% chances for the afternoon
hours of both days but confidence on occurrence is low.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

17/3

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
238 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-140745-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
238 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS, GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 70 MPH, AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES BETWEEN
100 AND 108 AT THE BASE OF PALO DURO CANYON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
407 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ011-132130-
OLDHAM TX-
407 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OLDHAM COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

AT 406 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ADRIAN...OR 20 MILES WEST OF VEGA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADRIAN.  ALSO I-40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 10278 3532 10251 3519 10247 3519 10286
      3526 10290
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 245DEG 14KT 3522 10278

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
451 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

OKZ001-132230-
CIMARRON OK-
451 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CIMARRON COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 450 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF KENTON TO 16 MILES NORTH
OF BUEYEROS. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

50 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS AND DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACK MESA PARK...FELT...KENTON AND WHEELESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE PANHANDLE
OF OKLAHOMA...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3700 10241 3650 10274 3650 10300 3700 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 267DEG 32KT 3703 10306 3620 10361

BRB