Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Amarillo, TX

728 
WWUS54 KAMA 132132
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
432 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXC359-132200-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-160613T2200Z/
OLDHAM TX-
432 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTY...

AT 431 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF VEGA TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ADRIAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3528 10255 3528 10270 3537 10277 3561 10269
      3560 10246 3546 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 217DEG 19KT 3545 10264 3532 10269 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BRB

555 
WWUS54 KAMA 132138
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
438 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXC359-132200-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-160613T2200Z/
OLDHAM TX-
438 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTY...

AT 437 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES NORTH OF
ADRIAN...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF VEGA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS POSSIBLE. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3538 10256 3541 10273 3561 10264 3560 10246
      3552 10237
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 216DEG 24KT 3549 10260 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BRB

939 
WWUS54 KAMA 132143
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
443 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXC359-132153-
/O.CAN.KAMA.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-160613T2200Z/
OLDHAM TX-
443 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3538 10256 3541 10273 3561 10264 3560 10246
      3552 10237
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 206DEG 21KT 3552 10258 

$$

BRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
237 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

.Short Term...
Latest water vapor channel imagery clearly shows a fairly
substantial shortwave trough over southwest Utah moving
northeastward. Large scale ascent is increasing across New Mexico
and Colorado as a result, and this lift should begin to overspread
our area later this afternoon. On the northeast periphery of mid-
upper ridging, an MCS moved through the northeast and eastern
Panhandles early this morning. An outflow boundary spawn by this
thunderstorm complex moved southwest through the area this morning
bringing stratus to much of the area that has persisted in some
locations into early afternoon. East-northeasterly winds immediately
behind the boundary have become more southeasterly across the
southern portion of the Texas Panhandle and these should strengthen
as lee trough deepens in response to the approaching trough.
Plentiful moisture is present and as diabatic heating continues
instability will grow.

The 12z sounding is probably too warm around 850-700 mb given closer
proximity of ridge axis early this morning. Ascent from approaching
trough should cool this lessening convective temperatures. But,
taken literally, the convective temperature would be in the mid 90s.
Latest visible satellite and visual observations from the NWS office
shows stratocumulus with little vertical development yet, which
makes sense given the above. Further west near and just east of the
Rockies and just east onto the western end of the Raton Mesa
convection has already developed, which seems to line up with
leading edge of more substantial ascent from the approaching
shortwave. Some additional development ahead of this seems possible
as gradual cooling aloft occurs and convective temperatures are
reached. A moderately unstable environment (2,000-2,500 J/kg MLCAPE)
later this afternoon in additional to increasing storm depth shear
(35-45 knots) as mid-upper speed max overspreads the area should
support organized storms and a severe threat. The best alignment of
shear and instability is expected to be across roughly the northern
half of the area, including the northern Texas Panhandle and the
Oklahoma Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary through, although low level veering could support a tornado
or two. Limiting factors for tornado will be 1.) uncertainty on
storm mode (upscale growth into an MCS may occur before or shortly
after entering our area), 2.) modest low-level jet strengthening at
best this evening.

Storms should progress enough to limit the heavy rainfall amounts
and flooding threat, although PWAT values in the models are quite
high. QPF amounts were increased above most guidance. Thunderstorms
should move west to east across the area through evening and early
night exiting by morning. Winds will shift to northwesterly later
tonight behind an eastward shifting surface trough as the mid-upper
shortwave moves northeast away from the area.

We will continue to monitor trends and further diagnose pre-existing
boundaries from early morning convection that may locally augment
shear and result in a higher severe/tornado threat, especially with
any convection that remains discrete/supercellular into the evening
hours. Mesoscale discussions will be sent as needed.

&&

.Long Term...
By Tuesday, heights begin to rise across the Panhandles as an upper
level ridge slowly develops. The result is a fairly warm and dry
forecast through the weekend. In fact, there is potential to meet
heat advisory criteria (105 degrees on the Caprock, and 110 degrees
off of the Caprock) Friday and Saturday via either the ambient air
temperatures or via heat index. Daily high temperatures at the base
of Palo Duro Canyon will likely range from 100 to 108 (heat index
values will also be in this range) as early as tomorrow afternoon.
So if you have outdoor activities planned over the next several days
be sure to stay hydrated especially if you plan to hike in the
Canyon.

While the extended portion of the forecast is expected to remain
dry, there is some suggestion that weak embedded shortwaves on the
periphery of the ridge could allow for isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the heat of the day on Wednesday and
Thursday. For now, have kept 10% to 20% chances for the afternoon
hours of both days but confidence on occurrence is low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                67  98  65 100  69 /  30   0   0   5  10
Beaver OK                  67 100  65 103  71 /  60   5   5   5   0
Boise City OK              59  94  59  97  64 /  60   0   0   5   0
Borger TX                  71 100  67 102  72 /  30   0   0   5   5
Boys Ranch TX              65  98  62 102  68 /  30   0   0   5  10
Canyon TX                  66  98  65 101  68 /  30   0   0   5  10
Clarendon TX               70  99  69 101  70 /  30   5   0  10  10
Dalhart TX                 61  96  58 100  64 /  50   0   0   5   0
Guymon OK                  65  98  62 101  67 /  60   0   0   5   0
Hereford TX                65  97  63  99  67 /  20   0   0   5  10
Lipscomb TX                69 100  67 103  72 /  60   5   0   5   0
Pampa TX                   69  97  66  99  70 /  30   5   0   5  10
Shamrock TX                71 101  70 102  73 /  30   5   0  10  10
Wellington TX              73 103  72 103  73 /  20   5   0  20  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

18/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
238 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-140745-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
238 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS, GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 70 MPH, AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES BETWEEN
100 AND 108 AT THE BASE OF PALO DURO CANYON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
407 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ011-132130-
OLDHAM TX-
407 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OLDHAM COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

AT 406 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ADRIAN...OR 20 MILES WEST OF VEGA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADRIAN.  ALSO I-40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 10278 3532 10251 3519 10247 3519 10286
      3526 10290
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 245DEG 14KT 3522 10278

BRB