Storm Warning 34, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Feb 27, 2016, 11:21 AM AKST (20:21 UTC)

Expired

Feb 27, 2016, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

643 
FZAK52 PAJK 272021 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1121 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-280100-
1121 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY WILL BRING
GALES TO THE EASTERN GULF AND OUTER COAST BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF.  

$$

PKZ041-280100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1121 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
SW SWELL. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-280100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1121 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-280100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1121 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-280100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1121 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-280100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1121 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Feb 27, 5:44 AM AKST, 5 hours 37 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
544 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING
AS SE AK IN A BREAK AS ONE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE NEXT
MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE S. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WX TO
BEGIN THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
MID AND HI CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
AS THIS STORM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF...GALES WILL ONCE AGAIN
SPREAD OVER THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING.
GALES WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND POSSIBLE CROSS
SOUND. ELECTED TO KEEP CROSS SOUND JUST BELOW GALES WITH THE
MORNING ISSUANCE...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THROUGH
THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE INCREASED WINDS
WILL ALSO IMPACT PUBLIC ZONES WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH RESULTING IN
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE OUTER COAST S OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER.
STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS THE FRONT PUSHES
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH ONLY PTYPE CONCERN OVER THE HIGHWAYS NEAR THE
BORDER WHERE 1-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND
THE PARENT LOW THIS EVENING AS IT DRIFTS NNW ACROSS THE GULF. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES OVER THE GULF STEEPENING TO 8-9C AND
TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 60C MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND N GULF.
ELECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SCHC TSTMS THIS EVENING OVER PKZ310
BUT HELD OUT MENTION IN PKZ051-052 AS CONFIDENCE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LOWER. INHERITED FORECAST REPRESENTED THIS WELL AND
USED NAM/EC TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE MAIN WEATHER FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY SUNDAY WHILE THE TRAILING TROUGH ALOFT
SPREADS INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH IS BEING KICKED
INLAND BY A SHARP NARROW RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

EXPECT SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR MOST SOUTHEAST ALASKA...THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE RIPE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF POST FRONTAL AIR AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH REACHING ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND. I MENTIONS THUNDER ONLY FOR THE AFTERNOON PORTION ON
SUNDAY THERE...HOWEVER I MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW IS ANCHORED ALONG THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS JUST SOUTH OF COLD BAY AND AS A RESULT MOST THE
LOW CENTERS ARE MIGRATING BACK TO THE BIG LOW THERE. A SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THE SUNDAY SYSTEM OUT WILL BE
DRIVEN NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG 140 WEST TO THE SOUTHERN
GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOULD CURVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS KODIAK
ISLAND. THE FRONT BAND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
SOME RAIN STARTING TUESDAY. FRONT MAY BE SHEARING APART AND THAT
COULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF RAIN AND HOW FAR NORTH IT GET.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY AND THEN
TRANSITIONED INTO THE CURRENT LONG RANGE FORECAST. EC WAS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION HERE FOR THE CHANGES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ022.
     STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

BC/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every storm warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.