Storm Warning 23, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
544 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING
AS SE AK IN A BREAK AS ONE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE NEXT
MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE S. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WX TO
BEGIN THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
MID AND HI CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
AS THIS STORM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF...GALES WILL ONCE AGAIN
SPREAD OVER THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING.
GALES WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND POSSIBLE CROSS
SOUND. ELECTED TO KEEP CROSS SOUND JUST BELOW GALES WITH THE
MORNING ISSUANCE...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THROUGH
THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE INCREASED WINDS
WILL ALSO IMPACT PUBLIC ZONES WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH RESULTING IN
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE OUTER COAST S OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER.
STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS THE FRONT PUSHES
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH ONLY PTYPE CONCERN OVER THE HIGHWAYS NEAR THE
BORDER WHERE 1-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND
THE PARENT LOW THIS EVENING AS IT DRIFTS NNW ACROSS THE GULF. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES OVER THE GULF STEEPENING TO 8-9C AND
TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 60C MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND N GULF.
ELECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SCHC TSTMS THIS EVENING OVER PKZ310
BUT HELD OUT MENTION IN PKZ051-052 AS CONFIDENCE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LOWER. INHERITED FORECAST REPRESENTED THIS WELL AND
USED NAM/EC TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE MAIN WEATHER FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY SUNDAY WHILE THE TRAILING TROUGH ALOFT
SPREADS INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH IS BEING KICKED
INLAND BY A SHARP NARROW RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

EXPECT SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR MOST SOUTHEAST ALASKA...THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE RIPE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF POST FRONTAL AIR AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH REACHING ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND. I MENTIONS THUNDER ONLY FOR THE AFTERNOON PORTION ON
SUNDAY THERE...HOWEVER I MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW IS ANCHORED ALONG THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS JUST SOUTH OF COLD BAY AND AS A RESULT MOST THE
LOW CENTERS ARE MIGRATING BACK TO THE BIG LOW THERE. A SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THE SUNDAY SYSTEM OUT WILL BE
DRIVEN NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG 140 WEST TO THE SOUTHERN
GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOULD CURVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS KODIAK
ISLAND. THE FRONT BAND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
SOME RAIN STARTING TUESDAY. FRONT MAY BE SHEARING APART AND THAT
COULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF RAIN AND HOW FAR NORTH IT GET.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY AND THEN
TRANSITIONED INTO THE CURRENT LONG RANGE FORECAST. EC WAS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION HERE FOR THE CHANGES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ022.
     STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

BC/BEZENEK

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